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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

But i am new to this whole armchair general thing.

That's not stopping the rest of us!

How much does that in itself matter when you are in a situation where last week Putin was saying don't be ridiculous i'm not going to invade Ukraine? Not disagreeing with you just wonder about the whole idea that the norms and rules will hold.

Yeah, that is something that complicates the situation and the accepted norms of State behaviour. All the promises to the international 'community' about not going into/invade various countries, followed shortly afterwards by doing exactly that.
 
Thanks for that. He lays out very clearly why (as, to be fair, elbows has also been saying) the Russians are pretty much perfectly meeting their own operational timetable and why, despite strong resistance, it still looks pretty hopeless for Ukraine.
I said earlier that Ukraine lost the moment the war started as when you are fighting in your territory you lose, as it is your cities being destroyed, your people being killed. And don't think anyone really doubts that Russia can win a military victory given time. Although I don't think the Russia military campaign is going well for them. My guess would be that things are progressing along the lines of their worst projections but still within them. So not as well as they hopped, but within the boundaries of what they considered possible.

What I think is in question is how much time Russia has. I don't think they expected the extent of the political and economic fallout. They are clearly losing politicaly and economicly, the question is can Ukraine hold out long enough that the Russia economy tanks so bad they have to withdraw? I don't think they will, but I also Don't think any Russia occupation of Ukraine will be able to last very long.

Of course all of this is my badly informed speculations and almost certainly wrong.
 
So we're not constantly being fed both messages?
Not really. I haven't really heard the latter since the war started.

If you're making a point about media messaging, fine but your post history on this thread has been snide and attention seeking, which is why I responded the way I did. I'm pretty sure you mentioned how entertained you were by your goading of other posters. I'd much rather you didn't do that and just stuck to talking about the topic. This isn't really the thread for one attention seeker.
 
Not really. I haven't really heard the latter since the war started.

If you're making a point about media messaging, fine but your post history on this thread has been snide and attention seeking, which is why I responded the way I did. I'm pretty sure you mentioned how entertained you were by your goading of other posters. I'd much rather you didn't do that and just stuck to talking about the topic. This isn't really the thread for one attention seeker.
Scepticism about the whole thing equals attention seeking?

Others, who unlike me, keep directly referencing themselves with regard to what's going on are not attention seeking, perhaps because they're on the side of good in its battle with evil?

(My comment on entertaining myself with the reactions of others was in reference to a different thread entirely, a point also apparently missed by Mr Editor. And as if there are not many posters who sometimes tske this approach throughout the boards,)

The lesson: learn to cope with differing views and don't constantly de-rail with rants about the dastardliness of those expressing them. Learn to take sarcastic comment. Don't think that the latter warrants wasting time by frequently chasing the offender down to let him know what a clear bastard he is (after all, he probably already knows.)
 
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the question is can Ukraine hold out long enough that the Russia economy tanks so bad they have to withdraw? I don't think they will, but I also Don't think any Russia occupation of Ukraine will be able to last very long.
yep thats what i think too, apart from is there any real reason to think that Putin would order withdrawal because of his concern for the suffering of ordinary Russians?
 
I am sure that probably was a factor, but the point still remains that the two situations are qualitatively different. Let's not get too binary about this.
So their use by the Americans in the Vietnam war and the two battles of Fallujah, plus their use by the Brits in Afghanistan, flown in by our own hero Prince Harry was all fine and dandy and non-binary.
 
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How much does that in itself matter when you are in a situation where last week Putin was saying don't be ridiculous i'm not going to invade Ukraine? Not disagreeing with you just wonder about the whole idea that the norms and rules will necessarily hold.
He hasn’t invaded a NATO country yet, though.
 
yep thats what i think too, apart from is there any real reason to think that Putin would order withdrawal because of his concern for the suffering of ordinary Russians?
His only concern for ordinary Russians is that if theu suffer enough they might decide his time has come.

Now I don't think anything dramatic is likely to happen, not at the moment anyway. But maybe some of his allies could decide it is time for him to retire.
 
The next time I'm in the pub I think I might suggest they stick some sort of swear jars on the bar. Mention the war and you have to donate to refugees. The bullshitting and contrarianism is getting worse every time I go in. There was a 'bring back trump' guy last night.
I was in the pub last night too. It must have been a different pub. There was no mention of Trump at all. Just helpless rage and disgust about Putin. Then we got on to talking about other stuff.
 
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