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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

There have been plenty of pictures and footage, sometimes distressing, of POWs on Twitter. It may be tempting to share them.

However, Article 13 of the Geneva Convention forbids this:



(See eg this article from 2003 re POWs in Iraq)

It forbids the Ukrainian state from sharing them, not from individuals subsequently sharing on them on Twitter. Of course there might be various other reasons for individuals not to share them, but there might be reasons to do so too.
 
In the mutually assured destruction era the actual use of nukes is not very likely, and so it is their ability to instil fear that is their greatest power. I try quite hard to diffuse those fears in my own mind, I cannot get rid of such fears and sometimes I like to dwell on them, but I also try to contain them so that they dont poison everything. I'll have to do so again now.

The fears were cynically made use of in the 1980s when I was growing up, although I never got round to seeing Threads in full my imagination was certainly captured by the animated version of when the wind blows.
While MAD makes it unlikely that either US or Russian leaders will decide 'ah, fuck it, let's blow up the world', it's the misunderstandings and mistrust that could lead down a path to missiles being launched.

In the Cuban Missile Crisis it wasn't Kennedy or Kruschev being all important in their war rooms that bought the world closest to nuclear war, it was an anti-aircraft gunner shooting at a plane he shouldn't have and a nuclear armed submarine running into trouble that came closest to kicking things off.

Twice in 1983 it could've all gone wrong. First when a glitchy satellite told the Soviets the US had launched against them (the world famously being saved by Stanislav Petrov, who figured it was a glitchy satellite and didn't report the supposed launch, which could've triggered a full Soviet response). The second time was NATO's Able Archer 83 military exercises, which the Soviets were concerned was the preparation for an actual nuclear attack (there's debate over how close that was, but it was too close).

This is why it's dangerously irresponsible for Putin to be willy waving with his nuclear weapons. It makes the possibility of the end of the fucking world that bit closer. I don't expect he actually intends to use them. But then I didn't expect him to do something as fucking stupid as launch a full invasion of Ukraine and yet here we are :(
 
It forbids the Ukrainian state from sharing them, not from individuals subsequently sharing on them on Twitter. Of course there might be various other reasons for individuals not to share them, but there might be reasons to do so too.
Sure. Nothing is going to happen to you if you share them. Journos do it all the time and the article I linked shared an image. But it's a moral line, that's the point, and may make people think twice.
 
He's an Australian.









My mistake. Still a worthwhile view, I think.
 
I don't think Putin will use nukes.

For what it's worth, it does appear that Russia has tried to avoid inflicting heavy civilian casualties. There has been no carpet bombing of Kiev for instance.

I think it is more like Putin is an old man who is living in the past and he is surrounded by other old men living in the past, who fondly remember when Ukraine and Russia were united. They don't realise that most of the young men fighting them were born after the USSR fell, and that it is ancient history to them and they don't share any nostalgia. Anyone under the age of 40 has either very vague childhood memories of the Soviet Union, or none at all. Moreover, in the last 10 years, Ukrainian national identity has grown stronger. Putin still believes Ukraine is a fake country somehow, that people are just Russians really.

Meanwhile he has became a cloistered dictator who nobody has contradicted for too many years. He is being told what he wants to hear and believes intelligence reports from separatists in Donbas are an accurate reflection of the situation on the ground.

This is why he was crazy enough to actually do it. He isn't crazy, he is an out of touch old man living in a bygone era. I don't think it means he is crazy enough to use nukes.

I hope this is the case.
 
This is why it's dangerously irresponsible for Putin to be willy waving with his nuclear weapons. It makes the possibility of the end of the fucking world that bit closer. I don't expect he actually intends to use them. But then I didn't expect him to do something as fucking stupid as launch a full invasion of Ukraine and yet here we are :(

I never say never about stuff and I dont think humans are a good fit with any nuclear technology, just like I think we are poor custodians of the planet, so I'd much rather the whole lot had been ditched long before I was born. And yes, events and escalations mean we can end up sliding into things that were unintended. But I resist taking those sorts of possibilities very far in my mind unless/until clear indications have become more obvious about such a fate. As for how likely I thought it was that Putin would launch this invasion, I didnt get much time to consider it because the first I heard about the escalation was when the USA etc released intelligence about what he was planning, and that always seemed credible stuff to me from the first moment I heard about it.
 
As for 'nutty', we as a society are presented with a lot of extreme representations of our apparent enemies and their capabilities. Iraq, North Korea, Russia, countless others - often as unhinged cartoonish dictators who might do anything at any moment. These sorts of threads are riddled with this stuff reappearing. The manifested reality has usually been a lot more sober - and complicated. Military history is full of poor judgements - Galtieri and the Falklands for example - but it's rare that they're wholly irrational.

I'm always baffled that more people dont see through this stuff or at least get a strong sense of deja vu when the 'madman' angles are adopted in such vulgar style at times like these in the press etc. These patterns arent subtle.
 
Pretty vile footage on the BBC right now of Ukrainian soldiers preventing Indian and African people from boarding the escape trains

It's likely related to the specifications from officials at Polish, Romanian etc border crossings as to where non-Ukrainian and non-EU passport holders should be sent by train.

In short, I wouldn't rush to blame the Ukrainian guards.
 
I grew up through the 70s and 80s when Threads was on telly and everyone from then says how real the threat felt. I've always thought that fear was a little overcooked. The Cuban missile crisis sounded more real scary, though I was lucky enough not to be born then.

This feels a bit more real to me. Because of how nutty and driven Putin is. Because right now it looks like there is no way for him to win this (and weak isn't in his make up).

Which doesn't mean he'll do it. But I think it's a more solid threat than I've ever lived under. And it's ok to be a bit shit scared.
This is the bit that worries me too Its a worrying escalation he doesn't now seem worried about making the type of threats to the world that North Korea make
At least a new long return to the cold war days , the 80s were very worrying times and never thought I would hear a world leader besides the likes of Kim Jong un Kim Jong-un use these threats again to a world especially when actually at war

He has obviously still got lots of horrific conventional mass murder weaponry he could still use towards his crazy goal or legacy if he really is losing and powerful enough to stop those around him halting him
Perhaps even conventional weapons weve never seen before as hes hinted at too but surely wont using those be a huge risk towards a preemptive attack on Russia and the possibility of an all out nuclear conflict

On a bit of lighter note but not much as seen it mentioned I also have When wind blows book by Raymond Briggs the cartoon movie is well worth streaming too excellent read or watc though frightening reality of nuclear war
 
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It might be if the 'consequence free' use of tactical nuclear weapons wasn't a longstanding feature of Soviet/Russian political, military, intelligence and diplomatic thought.

3 perhaps 4 generations of Soviet/Russian military officers, intelligence officers, diplomats, and politicians, going back well into the 70's genuinely believe that if they threaten the use of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons to wipe out the European and North American homelands of NATO, they would be able to use a limited number of tactical nukes on the battlefield without nuclear retaliation.

Putin is Soviet KGB, what do you think he believes?
I wonder what Biden thinks? His frame of reference will at least start with Kennedy and the Cuban missiles crisis. I don't see this going nuclear, but Biden will start thinking he has a 'role' to play if things deteriorate.
 
Anyone watching sky news they have expert on talking about the invasion and Russia Nuclears and said the Nuclear weapons Russia have could wipeout London and Washington and other big cities quite fighting really😭

Yep. This has always been the case though. The world's nuclear powers have amassed more than enough weapons to destroy civilisation several times over. Despite the decommissioning of some in the 90s.
 
Doing what? Stopping people getting on the wrong train?
you are inventing excuses for them out of thin air. if the polish border people phone through and tell the ukrainians no africans, cos polish border officials are as racist as anyone else in europe, and the ukrainians do the actual work of stopping them embarking, then its the ukrainians face that the african sees dooming him or her to their fate. following orders or not.
 
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you are inventing excuses for them out of thin air. if the polish border people phone through and tell the ukrainians no africans, cos they are as racist as anyone else in europe, ant the ukrainians do the actual work of stopping them embarking, then its the ukrainians face that the african sees dooming him or her to their fate. following orders or not.

Sending people to border crossings where they won't be allowed to cross isn't helping them is it? Ukrainians have visa-free Schengen privileges, International students don't.

If a border guard at Heathrow stops a foreign student from joining the British passport holders line, are they automatically racist, or are they trying to stop them waiting in a queue only to be turned away.

It's not like anyone near the Western borders is in immediate danger anyway.
 
Three day old article, accurately predicting the escalating alert level move from putin and explaining why it is legit scary.


Not actually read it yet. But the potential for miscalculations, judgement clouded by misinformation, would seem to be how such a disaster could unfold. Who's around Putin, what are his generals going to tell him or advise if things go very wrong for meeting his objectives. What end game does he foresee in this adventure and paths out of it. If a Nato / EU armed Ukrainion defence seriously thwart his designs and it is inescapably obvious to the Russian populous how well it's all going, what's his way out.

Might save it for some cheery late night reading...
 
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