Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Doctor Carrot]

Bloody hell look at him.
This was the scene zoomed out.

If he’s not ‘crazy’ then he’s got good reason to be scared of getting anywhere near his generals so which is it?

View attachment 312170

Maybe all the talk of him being isolated for too long and it fucking with his head isn't so far fetched? That clearly is not healthy behaviour is it? He's clearly paranoid about more than just catching covid. If anything that picture reassures me a little bit because if he gave the order to launch a nuke I can't see everyone below him being on board with carrying that order out.

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe all the talk of him being isolated for too long and it fucking with his head isn't so far fetched? That clearly is not healthy behaviour is it? He's clearly paranoid about more than just catching covid. If anything that picture reassures me a little bit because if he gave the order to launch a nuke I can't see everyone below him being on board with carrying that order out.

i am not so sure. depends on the level of nuclear weapon and target imo. washington, london, berlin, yes. but see America Isn’t Ready for Russia's Battlefield Nuclear Weapons for something he might use and not be stopped

 

[Dystopiary]

OK, this is Franak Viacorka who is senior advister to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (exiled Belarusian MP and human rights activist who stood against Lukashenko in 2020).

I don't know the name of this man in the video and cannot verify this, but apparently a Belarusian lieutenant colonel against this war.

Belarusian lieutenant colonel addressed the military. "Our boys are now sitting in the woods of Belarus, probably preparing to attack Ukraine. Some won't come home alive. This is not our war. Find a way not to follow criminal orders. Sometimes saying "no" takes the most courage."

I'm seeing comments and links with subtitles, but don't know if they are real.

 

[magneze]

Turkey finally moves to limiting Russian warships from crossing between the Black Sea & the Med.



LINK

Is this good? How? Seems like a NATO member setup to directly challenge Russian warships.

 

[Petcha]

Im no expert on refugees but i would have thought safest bet is get to the border and sort it out from there.

The footage is a bit ambiguous tbf. But there were other reports of similar things happening.

It might not be to do with their colour of course, it's a pretty fucked up heated situation.

 

[gosub]

Maybe all the talk of him being isolated for too long and it fucking with his head isn't so far fetched? That clearly is not healthy behaviour is it? He's clearly paranoid about more than just catching covid. If anything that picture reassures me a little bit because if he gave the order to launch a nuke I can't see everyone below him being on board with carrying that order out.

Assuming he is on steroids, then presumably it is part of the treatment for something....His daughter gave a rare interview a couple of years back, where she claimed she wanted to find a cure for cancer. I wish her luck in her endeavor, but raises (in my mind at least) the posibility of Mr Putin having had some treatments which could render him immuno surpressed.

 

[RileyOBlimey]

The "is vlad mad?" question is - IMO - more a case of "how mad is vlad" - I would definitely say he has a degree of paranoia, obsession, a detachment from reality and megalomania - all his recent actions suggest that. But to what extent?
I dont buy the "no - its his cold, ruthless logic at work" . So an increasingly desperate and isolated Putin openly threatening to use nukes definitely does put the shits up me - because I cant say with 100% certainty that he isn't batshit enough to do it.
And yeah - im finding it scarier than the cold war because you believed that both sides were rational actors doing game theory stuff - so post cuban missile crises we never got close to an escalating political crises that could have led to WW3/nuclear Armageddon. We didnt really know about the far too close comfort near accidents.

I would recommend the book I referenced earlier. Putin likes to spin a legend or 2 about himself that paints him as a bit of a fighter unconstrained by the fears of normal men. Painting myths about himself like this for many years shows what he’s desperate to project rather than what he actual is in my view.

 

[Pickman's model]

Assuming he is on steroids, then presumably it is part of the treatment for something....His daughter gave a rare interview a couple of years back, where she claimed she wanted to find a cure for cancer. I wish her luck in her endeavor, but raises (in my mind at least) the posibility of Mr Putin having had some treatments which could render him immuno surpressed.

there's a lot of chat earlier in the thread about this and the possibility he might have parkinson's. if we ever get a dedicated forum we could have a thread devoted to speculation about putin's health.

 

[Pickman's model]

I would recommend the book I referenced earlier. Putin likes to spin a legend or 2 about himself that paints him as a bit of a fighter unconstrained by the fears of normal men. Painting myths about himself like this for many years shows what he’s desperate to project rather than what he actual is in my view.

and we could have a psychobabble thread about him too

 

[extra dry]

These guys are really in need of training

دودول طلا (@LievanTem) Tweeted:
دودول طلا (@LievanTem) Tweeted: Translation: Feed me Russian tanks #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #RussianArmy https://t.co/Esz9FhhO9R https://twitter.com/LievanTem/status/1497652641878265858?s=20&t=wxZsGLhxa5nEhfD4xr-7JA

 

[cupid_stunt]

Is this good? How? Seems like a NATO member setup to directly challenge Russian warships.

The Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits are part of Turkey, restricting the movement of Russian ships to cross Turkey's sovereign sea territory is really no different to the growing number of countries that are closing their airspace to Russia.

 

[tommers]

Is this good? How? Seems like a NATO member setup to directly challenge Russian warships.

Yeah, this is very bad isn't it?

 

[CyberRose]

Just an idle thought...

All this talk about NATO expanding to Russian borders is kind of illegitimate isn't it?

Why is Russia entitled to a buffer zone or sphere of influence?

That depends on your definition of "Russian borders". For most people in the world, that would be the borders of the Russian Federation. In the mind of Putin, Russia's borders extend to the Baltic states, Belarus and all of Ukraine (plus some other areas like South Ossetia and Abkhazia). NATO expanding into these areas, in his mind, isn't expanding towards Russian territory, its an annexation of Russian territory.

 

[magneze]

The Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits are part of Turkey, restricting the movement of Russian ships to cross Turkey's sovereign sea territory is really no different to the growing number of countries that are closing their airspace to Russia.

I'm not sure I share your optimism.

 

[Pickman's model]

Is this good? How? Seems like a NATO member setup to directly challenge Russian warships.

we've been through the montreux convention which governs this, the russians can return their ships to their home base, which is for many of their ships the black sea.

 

[magneze]

Yeah, this is very bad isn't it?

Feels like just the chances of things getting worse just increased.

 

[magneze]

we've been through the montreux convention which governs this, the russians can return their ships to their home base, which is for many of their ships the black sea.

So, it's effectively useless?

 

[gosub]

I would recommend the book I referenced earlier. Putin likes to spin a legend or 2 about himself that paints him as a bit of a fighter unconstrained by the fears of normal men. Painting myths about himself like this for many years shows what he’s desperate to project rather than what he actual is in my view.

You can say that. He has had a life though.

 

[Pickman's model]

Feels like just the chances of things getting worse just increased.

believe me it can get much much worse than this very very quickly. imagine if you will a bomb on the moscow metro planted by a ukrainian fascist killing dozens of people in the rush hour.

 

[Raheem]

So, it's effectively useless?

Not useless. Legally, Turkey can stop warships going south but not north through the strait.

 

[Pickman's model]

So, it's effectively useless?

they can't take ships into the med. but they can get them back to crimea. so yeh pretty useless.

 

[Ax^]

so covid was a fun time now wasn't it


wait for a supervolcano to go off

 

[Pickman's model]

Not useless. Legally, Turkey can stop warships going south but not north through the strait.

no, that's not the case at all. they can enter IF THEIR HOME BASE IS IN THE BLACK SEA. not if they're from the baltic. only the black sea fleet.

 

[Pickman's model]

so covid was a fun time now wasn't it


wait for a supervolcano to go off

we didn't know how good we had it

 

[cupid_stunt]

So, it's effectively useless?

No, Russian ships not based in Black Sea ports will no longer be able to entre the BS, and likewise any Russian ships in the BS will not be able to get out.

It's not a silver bullet, nor is any other individual sanction introduced, it just tightens the screws further, and sends an important message to Putin from what had been a country fairly friendly towards him.

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

No, I meant I haven't the faintest idea what half of that means.

I don't understand the other half.

 

[elbows]

This theme has come up on this thread a few times already but we can rely on the fucking Telegraph to demonstrate the phenomenon in a vulgar manner.

 

[teuchter]

It's been a few pages now since anyone's posted a statement from an obscure anarcho communist group. If Putin is starting to talk about nuclear weapons then we really need some stepping up in the quantity of statements from such groups.

 

[bimble]

This is interesting. There are some heavyweight old military men, organised and outspoken in their criticism of Putin & this whole Ukraine adventure.
I reckon they’ll be busy right now.

Retired Russian Generals Criticize Putin Over Ukraine, Renew Call for His Resignation

Censors haven't yet blocked the rhetorical attack from the assembly of hardline veterans, giving the message space and time to spread.

www.justsecurity.org

Notable apparently that their attack on him, calling for his resignation, saying the whole Ukraine thing is madness, has not been taken down off the internet but left up for weeks.

 

[Idris2002]

Apparently Uka troops clearing a road after what must have been a hell of a fight, Lugansk region: