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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Hadn't thought putting nukes on high alert was anything but theatre. But it turns out he's done that from a nuclear bunker in the Urals. OK.
 
Artaxerxes said:
If he nukes Kiev in a fit of pique, I'm not sure how I'm going to handle this.

Or how anyone will.
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badly. everyone will handle it badly. and shit will get worse. fuck knows what will happen after that, it'll all get unimaginably bad. never thought we'd be talking about 'this city might get wiped from the face of the map' without it being a light-hearted what if
 
elbows said:
Its not exactly a surprising statement from them about this war either, given that the article you linked to is clear enough about how long they've been making noises opposing Putin:
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yep. But other bits of the article suggest its not just the ruminations of irrelevent old men.


" Ivashov and his society are known as the most hardline Russian military figures, considered to have good relations with the Russian military intelligence agency, known by its Russian acronym GRU.."
&
"at a time when any serious opposition web posting is being taken down within 24 hours by the Russian censor Roskomnadzor, this appeal has been up and freely accessible in Russian..This suggests Ivashov’s appeal is for real and that he enjoys such substantial political support that Roskomnadzor may feel it can’t take it down.'

i dont know, obviously. Just thought it interesting.
 
Pickman's model said:
what happens next is he has an unfortunate 'accident' and someone more militarily competent takes command. seems to me much more likely than some fairy godmother of a general takes over and lo! with a tap of the wand magics everything ok
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what do you mean, someone who will continue whatever it is in Ukraine but do a better job? i very doubt that.
 
The EU has finally agreed to close all their air space to Russia, what's surprising is for the first time ever the EU itself will purchase & send weapons to a country under attack.

That screw keeps getting tighten.
 
Messaged my friend today , her mother is Russian , from Moscow. Her father is Ukrainian, from Kyiv. Her Ukrainian family live about 80k from Kyiv and are ok but understandably she is very worried. Her family in Moscow are devastated for Ukraine but also all the "Russian boys who are being killed in the thousands". It's so sad, all of it.
 
Pickman's model said:
badly. everyone will handle it badly. and shit will get worse. fuck knows what will happen after that, it'll all get unimaginably bad. never thought we'd be talking about 'this city might get wiped from the face of the map' without it being a light-hearted what if
Click to expand...

Its not a serious part of the current analysis of Putins nuclear rhetoric at this stage at all. His rhetoric is seen as a typical response that is more about complaining about the extent of sanctions and underlining the reason why Ukranian appeals for NATO countries to impose a 'no fly zone' in Ukraine are a non-starter.
 
bimble said:
what do you mean, someone who will continue whatever it is in Ukraine but do a better job? i very doubt that.
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yeh but then you've not been paying attention to some of what's been said eg the leaving of the top troops outside the first echelons committed. the peculiar use of armour without obvious infantry and infantry without armour. the way air superiority not assured before committing ground forces. the way things haven't been joined up, combined arms not combined. shitty ilyushin airplanes shot out the sky. it wouldn't take that much to get things moving in a more effective way i think. and if putin can't do it, if shoygu and gerasimov can't assure it, i'm sure other generals can be found who will.
 
elbows said:
Its not a serious part of the current analysis of Putins nuclear rhetoric at this stage at all. His rhetoric is seen as a typical response that is more about complaining about the extent of sanctions and underlining the reason why Ukranian appeals for NATO countries to impose a 'no fly zone' in Ukraine are a non-starter.
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yeh but this isn't now outlier discussion
 
Pickman's model said:
yeh but then you've not been paying attention to some of what's been said eg the leaving of the top troops outside the first echelons committed. the peculiar use of armour without obvious infantry and infantry without armour. the way air superiority not assured before committing ground forces. the way things haven't been joined up, combined arms not combined. shitty ilyushin airplanes shot out the sky. it wouldn't take that much to get things moving in a more effective way i think. and if putin can't do it, if shoygu and gerasimov can't assure it, i'm sure other generals can be found who will.
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yeh i think thats ridiculous, the idea that Putin will be ousted by someone who wants to carry on with his Ukraine plan but do it better.
 
Pickman's model said:
yeh but then you've not been paying attention to some of what's been said eg the leaving of the top troops outside the first echelons committed. the peculiar use of armour without obvious infantry and infantry without armour. the way air superiority not assured before committing ground forces. the way things haven't been joined up, combined arms not combined. shitty ilyushin airplanes shot out the sky. it wouldn't take that much to get things moving in a more effective way i think. and if putin can't do it, if shoygu and gerasimov can't assure it, i'm sure other generals can be found who will.
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Yes, I'm sure a restructuring of Russia's military at short notice is totally feasible. Wtf?
 
Cid said:
Yes, I'm sure a restructuring of Russia's military at short notice is totally feasible. Wtf?
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It isn’t restructuring, it’s swapping out the leadership of the force. In the Great Patriotic War the state would also give the new man an incentive to do better than the old one, too.
 
bimble said:
yes. its ok if you want to apologise to me for saying that i was having a laugh when i suggested he'd be ousted, when you now think i was right.
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no, i don't think you're right. i don't think that this is in any way right:
bimble said:
I've convinced myself at least for the moment that this is what happens next, he has an unfortunate accident very soon, forces withdraw from Ukraine, and god knows who gets to be the new Putin.
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as i say in 3349 yer man having an unfortunate 'accident' and someone else more militarily competent is much more likely that everything getting magicked better as you think will happen. that's not in any way agreeing with you.
 
kebabking said:
Russian Military Chief of Staff, Gerasimov, sacked.

He was the bullet faced one who, at the briefing with Putin looked like a bulldog licking piss off a thistle....

I'm assuming that means all is going well.
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is that confirmed? was a twitter rumour yesterday.
 
Weller said:
This is the bit that worries me too Its a worrying escalation he doesn't now seem worried about making the type of threats to the world that North Korea make
At least a new long return to the cold war days , the 80s were very worrying times and never thought I would hear a world leader besides the likes of Kim Jong un Kim Jong-un use these threats again to a world especially when actually at war

He has obviously still got lots of horrific conventional mass murder weaponry he could still use towards his crazy goal or legacy if he really is losing and powerful enough to stop those around him halting him
Perhaps even conventional weapons weve never seen before as hes hinted at too but surely wont using those be a huge risk towards a preemptive attack on Russia and the possibility of an all out nuclear conflict

On a bit of lighter note but not much as seen it mentioned I also have When wind blows book by Raymond Briggs the cartoon movie is well worth streaming too excellent read or watc though frightening reality of nuclear war
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His thermobaric stuff makes me a bit windy.
 
kebabking said:
Russian Military Chief of Staff, Gerasimov, sacked.

He was the bullet faced one who, at the briefing with Putin looked like a bulldog licking piss off a thistle....

I'm assuming that means all is going well.
Click to expand...

Its not a great idea to instantly believe that sort of news when it first emerges in the midst of a war.

edit - especially when the news source has a Ukrainian domain.

 
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