Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Supine]

One aim of all of this is to expand/restore the Russian empire. Nuking the bit he wants now would seem a bit foolish

They wouldn’t be aiming for ukraine

 

[Bingoman]

Anyone watching sky news they have expert on talking about the invasion and Russia Nuclears and said the Nuclear weapons Russia have could wipeout London and Washington and other big cities quite fighting really

 

[smmudge]

The fears were cynically made use of in the 1980s when I was growing up, although I never got round to seeing Threads in full my imagination was certainly captured by the animated version of when the wind blows.

I've seen both and found When the Wind Blows much more chilling to be honest (didn't watch them in the Cold War though).

 

[A380]

She really would be outsmarted by two bees trapped in a jam jar.

And yet still one of the intellectual giants of the cabinet…

 

[pinkychukkles]

Just that little bit too young for Threads, rather it was The Day After Tomorrow for me - that scene at / near the end where Jason Robards tells an emaciated survivor to get out of the ruins of his house but then breaks down when that survivor offers him what appears to be a fresh orange that has somehow escaped the nuclear apocalypse.

hmmm, maybe that was from what remained of his own fruit bowl, so perhaps wasn't that generous a gesture!

 

[bimble]

Three day old article, accurately predicting the escalating alert level move from putin and explaining why it is legit scary.

How Ukraine Could Become a Nuclear Crisis

Chaos creates countless opportunities for mistakes.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[existentialist]

That's what I am worried about.

We're meant to be worried. Nuclear weapons are far more use as a deterrent than operationally, in this situation at least.

 

[Raheem]

Three day old article, accurately predicting the escalating alert level move from putin and explaining why it is legit scary.

How Ukraine Could Become a Nuclear Crisis

Chaos creates countless opportunities for mistakes.

www.theatlantic.com

This bit hasn't aged well

The Russians are going to defeat the overmatched Ukrainians, and they do not need nuclear weapons to do it.

 

[Aladdin]

It's no different to any other time, and although it's entirely reasonable to be scared, how you feel about it or how it's represented doesn't change the structural situation.

The world has been far closer to nuclear war than it is now, and most people weren't even aware until later. This particular rhetoric isn't even new, and whilst Putin might be a horrible bastard, 'nutty' doesn't have a solid basis either.

From 2015: Russia threatens Denmark with nuclear weapons

Interesting thanks.

He has been all powerful for a long time and very few have questioned him. Now he has a lot of the world declaring he is "wrong".
Who knows what is going on in his head. 3 weeks ago people believed what he said about manoeuvres.
He lied.
If he doesnt get his glorious united Russia with Ukraine and the independent states,... if he feels the world judges him to be a "loser" ... how will he react?
I don't think its beyond him to destroy Ukraine in an "If I cant have it then nobody will" type of mindset.

So what will he want at these new talks? Will he deal for the 2 independent states and leave the Ukraine...will that be a sort of win win situation?
That's what we might expect / hope for.
But he's an unpredictable fucker isnt he.

 

[planetgeli]

It's no different to any other time, and although it's entirely reasonable to be scared, how you feel about it or how it's represented doesn't change the structural situation.

I'm sure that's a great comfort to Bimble. However 'right' your sentence is doesn't stop people having visceral feelings. So I think it is quite normal and acceptable ("a bit") for some people to have dark thoughts.

The world has been far closer to nuclear war than it is now, and most people weren't even aware until later. This particular rhetoric isn't even new, and whilst Putin might be a horrible bastard, 'nutty' doesn't have a solid basis either.

Was 'driven' ok for you? Apologies for one throwaway word where most readers would get the gist rather than me providing academic evidence and a proper diagnosis. I meant it politically if that helps. Outside the usual accepted rules and boundaries. That kind of thing.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Anyone watching sky news they have expert on talking about the invasion and Russia Nuclears and said the Nuclear weapons Russia have could wipeout London and Washington and other big cities quite fighting really

Yes, but remember the west can do the same to Russian cities, hence mutually assured destruction.

Whilst I think Putin could, when seriously backed into a corner, decide it's time for the big red button, I doubt those around him would let that happen, the cost is just way too high.

 

[DaveCinzano]

If he doesnt get his glorious united Russia with Ukraine and the independent states,... if he feels the world judges him to be a "loser" ... how will he react?

He could try CBT

 

[A380]

It might be if the 'consequence free' use of tactical nuclear weapons wasn't a longstanding feature of Soviet/Russian political, military, intelligence and diplomatic thought.

3 perhaps 4 generations of Soviet/Russian military officers, intelligence officers, diplomats, and politicians, going back well into the 70's genuinely believe that if they threaten the use of Russia's strategic nuclear weapons to wipe out the European and North American homelands of NATO, they would be able to use a limited number of tactical nukes on the battlefield without nuclear retaliation.

Putin is Soviet KGB, what do you think he believes?

That was a fairly key part of our doctrine too earlier on in the Cold War. Nukes being ‘cheap’ compared to tank armies and conventional bombings.

As you say, scary now though. Despite the whole WMD thing we didn’t really act against those that did use chemical weapons. If one active airbase, railway j/ road freight centre or collection of arms depot ( and their neighbouring towns l) were destroyed in week 2 or 3 by a tactical Russian nuclear weapon, and the Ukrainians threw in the towel at that point would we really escalate and kill millions with a full scale strike?

Just one weapon would be the largest humanitarian disaster innEutope since 1945 and one of the largest in the world, but the Russians might get away with it.

What about if that depot or railway town was five mikes over the Polish border?

 

[elbows]

I've seen both and found When the Wind Blows much more chilling to be honest (didn't watch them in the Cold War though).

I reckon the 1965 programme "The War Game" was probably more disturbing than Threads. They didnt end up broadcasting it in 1965, it got a limited BFI release and then was finally shown on tv in the mid 1980's, when there were new political reasons to whip up such fears.

The War Game

The threat of thermonuclear destruction placed Britain’s civil defence plans, and the BBC, at the heart of public debates about the Cold War.

www.bbc.com

 

[existentialist]

They wouldn’t be aiming for ukraine

While I could see how Russia might think it could get away with the use of tactical weapons, I cannot imagine that they would expect to be able to target Western cities and not be certain of a retaliatory strike.

 

[elbows]

No thanks.

I wasnt actually recommending anyone listen to it with the pleasure of listening to music in mind.

As for nuclear stuff, I might watch Dr Strangelove again.

 

[existentialist]

Yes, but remember the west can do the same to Russian cities, hence mutually assured destruction.

Whilst I think Putin could, when seriously backed into a corner, decide it's time for the big red button, I doubt those around him would let that happen, the cost is just way too high.

I really, really hope so. I'd imagine that would either need a coup to happen, or be the opening stages of one.

 

[Brainaddict]

I don't know how anyone can be confident of knowing what is really going on in Ukraine atm. Between Russian propaganda (malevolent) and Ukrainian propaganda (understandable) and Western media doing its thing (supporting the government line) and social media suddenly blooming with experts in weapons and warfare, there's so much noise that I just don't think most of us can know what is happening.

 

[Rimbaud]

Interesting thanks.

He has been all powerful for a long time and very few have questioned him. Now he has a lot of the world declaring he is "wrong".
Who knows what is going on in his head. 3 weeks ago people believed what he said about manoeuvres.
He lied.
If he doesnt get his glorious united Russia with Ukraine and the independent states,... if he feels the world judges him to be a "loser" ... how will he react?
I don't think its beyond him to destroy Ukraine in an "If I cant have it then nobody will" type of mindset.

So what will he want at these new talks? Will he deal for the 2 independent states and leave the Ukraine...will that be a sort of win win situation?
That's what we might expect / hope for.
But he's an unpredictable fucker isnt he.

I don't think Putin will use nukes.

For what it's worth, it does appear that Russia has tried to avoid inflicting heavy civilian casualties. There has been no carpet bombing of Kiev for instance.

I think it is more like Putin is an old man who is living in the past and he is surrounded by other old men living in the past, who fondly remember when Ukraine and Russia were united. They don't realise that most of the young men fighting them were born after the USSR fell, and that it is ancient history to them and they don't share any nostalgia. Anyone under the age of 40 has either very vague childhood memories of the Soviet Union, or none at all. Moreover, in the last 10 years, Ukrainian national identity has grown stronger. Putin still believes Ukraine is a fake country somehow, that people are just Russians really.

Meanwhile he has became a cloistered dictator who nobody has contradicted for too many years. He is being told what he wants to hear and believes intelligence reports from separatists in Donbas are an accurate reflection of the situation on the ground.

This is why he was crazy enough to actually do it. He isn't crazy, he is an out of touch old man living in a bygone era. I don't think it means he is crazy enough to use nukes.

 

[mauvais]

I'm sure that's a great comfort to Bimble. However 'right' your sentence is doesn't stop people having visceral feelings. So I think it is quite normal and acceptable ("a bit") for some people to have dark thoughts.

Was 'driven' ok for you? Apologies for one throwaway word where most readers would get the gist rather than me providing academic evidence and a proper diagnosis. I meant it politically if that helps. Outside the usual accepted rules and boundaries. That kind of thing.

I'm not having a go at you. How you feel is reasonable. But it doesn't mean anything has necessarily changed.

As for 'nutty', we as a society are presented with a lot of extreme representations of our apparent enemies and their capabilities. Iraq, North Korea, Russia, countless others - often as unhinged cartoonish dictators who might do anything at any moment. These sorts of threads are riddled with this stuff reappearing. The manifested reality has usually been a lot more sober - and complicated. Military history is full of poor judgements - Galtieri and the Falklands for example - but it's rare that they're wholly irrational.

 

[bimble]

Is it inevitable that America (& wheverer else) mirrors this ‘increased alert level’ move like a scripted dance or can they just decide not to.

 

[Chilli.s]

Is anyone else getting annoyed at the media coverage? Some outlets make it sound like they're calling a sporting event. This "war as entertainment" that some of them are selling is pretty sick.

It's a dream come true for journalists, they wait all their lives to be the commentator on a world changing event that makes them and their opinion the most important thing

 

[Weller]

Is anyone else getting annoyed at the media coverage? Some outlets make it sound like they're calling a sporting event. This "war as entertainment" that some of them are selling is pretty sick.

Yeah but past wars have all been the same it just gets worse every time because of easy access to it 24 ours a day rolling snipets of war , the twitterati propaganda linking stuff is really on another level though this time
I also personally find it lazy that many journalists now seem to be able to exist around recycling twittter and facebook "experts" posts etc

Its pretty sick the way some see it all as entertainment , we seem to be back in a 1980s type cold war nuclear stand off now whatever happens a time when a war that finished or at the very least affected us all didn't seem that far off it was very scary for a very long time , far from a sport or entertaining

Strange worrying times cant be good for long term mental health especially younger ones

Best sticking to Urban where you don't see it

 

[Brainaddict]

Does anyone know what has happened to the front line in the Donbas region? This is something I've seen nothing about, possibly through not looking hard enough.

 

[bluescreen]

There have been plenty of pictures and footage, sometimes distressing, of POWs on Twitter. It may be tempting to share them.

However, Article 13 of the Geneva Convention forbids this:

HUMANE TREATMENT OF PRISONERS
ARTICLE 13

Prisoners of war must at all times be humanely treated. Any unlawful act or omission by the Detaining Power causing death or seriously endangering the health of a prisoner of war in its custody is prohibited, and will be regarded as a serious breach of the present Convention. In particular, no prisoner of war may be subjected to physical mutilation or to medical or scientific experiments of any kind which are not justified by the medical, dental or hospital treatment of the prisoner concerned and carried out in his interest.
Likewise, prisoners of war must at all times be protected, particularly against acts of violence or intimidation and against insults and public curiosity. (My bold)
Measures of reprisal against prisoners of war are prohibited.

(See eg this article from 2003 re POWs in Iraq)

 

[Pickman's model]

Would hope that someone would take responsibility to kill him at that point, or before that point. He does appear to be playing all his cards very early. I may be wrong, but that suggests all is not going to plan.

There is no guarantee any successor to Putin would be any better and his assassination might provoke more widespread violence.

 

[nogojones]

If Putin fucks this war badly, he's fucked and possibly dead in a ditch.

He doesn't give a toss about his people or retalatory strikes on Russia, I'm sure he would consider escalating as an end move. I have no idea what the C&C structures are like in Russia for the use of nukes, but I'd like to hope that there were a good few fail-safes.

 

[A380]

He could try CBT

Does he even own a motorcycle?

 

[Nylock]

Anti-war protests are continuing in Russia. Apparently, another 900 have been arrested today. Demonstrations in 44 cities.... BBC Live Feed

According to the feed, there are "several thousand*" out against the war in St. Petersburg...



*edit for clarity

 

[RileyOBlimey]

…

Honestly baffled why so many people I've never had a problem with are against me/mugging me off. Take the piss/ignore me/celebrate, doesn't matter to me I'm gone.

I wouldn’t take this to heart, it doesn’t read as malicious. There’s inherently huge amounts of fear, uncertainty and doubt with a relatively local war AND discussion on an odd corner of the Internet. I’ve had beef a few people the last couple of days but no real malice is intended and I’m confident the same is for you.

Eat, rest, exercise and come back to Urban later. Then the bunfight can continue ;-)