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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Do you really not know what I think? I've said the same thing repeatedly for years now. Its like when we repeatedly have to have the same conversation about how "you cant trust Putin in a peace deal", over and over again, and I have to repeat its got nothing to do with trust and everything to do with a miltarised agreement.

I think the war should've stopped a long time ago, as did the head of the US army.
I think Ukraine is losing, as does the head of the Ukraine army.
I think the longer it goes on the bigger the disaster for everyone, and the bigger the chance of it bringing other states into a wider war.
I think the US (and therefore the UK) is quite happy to keep it rumbling on for their own strategic interests. I think Biden is a war criminal - what he has done in Palestine should leave no one in any doubt.
I think there should be a concerted attempt to create a united nations backed peace plan <the nature of which I've spelled out repeatedly.
So if this wildly unlikely settlement actually comes about, do you think Putin should then be immediately prosecuted for his war crimes, or should he be allowed to get off completely scot-free and Russia keep the vast chunks of the land that have been illegally annexed?
 
If there is a settlement it'll obvs cover the land issue. Or it wouldn't be a settlement would it.

That's a cop out - settlements don't fall out of the sky, they are shaped by the war that precedes the settlement. If you support, and advocate for, Ukraine getting more capable munitions and capabilities then the settlement will mean a smaller proportion of Ukrainians living under a Russian government, if you oppose Ukraine getting more munitions and capabilities then a greater number of Ukrainians will be forced to live under a Russian government.

It's pretty simple stuff.
 
Regarding the Kursk invasion, if Ukraine manages to take Korenevo (and on current progress that’s not unlikely, they already control the road in to the town) then an area of around 700 sq miles will be effectively cut off from the rest of Russia - its bordered on one side by the existing Ukrainian border, on another by the current Ukrainian incursion, and to the north/west is a 70-100m wide river and swamp bridged in only three places, two of which are dirt roads not really going anywhere. This is the area Russia ordered an evacuation of several days ago, which at the time seemed like an over-reaction, but quite possible they will lose it, and once lost it will not be easy to recover without forcing Ukraine back elsewhere.
 
And which neither Ukraine nor Russia will agree to. Unless you're proposing we invade Ukraine to force them to accept the terms.
I don't think (in honest politic) the UK can in any way be the mediator of peace. Its not our role in this. Especially now Cheftains are involved in SAT-NAV witer mode.
There's good evidence we here in the UK didn't start the fire while the Ukraine is burning ..Open ears
 
That's a cop out - settlements don't fall out of the sky, they are shaped by the war that precedes the settlement. If you support, and advocate for, Ukraine getting more capable munitions and capabilities then the settlement will mean a smaller proportion of Ukrainians living under a Russian government, if you oppose Ukraine getting more munitions and capabilities then a greater number of Ukrainians will be forced to live under a Russian government.

It's pretty simple stuff.
I said any settlement will cover the land issue and you don't differ one iota from that position, you're just windier about it.
 
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I don't think (in honest politic) the UK can in any way be the mediator of peace. Its not our role in this. Especially now Cheftains are involved in SAT-NAV witer mode.
There's good evidence we here in the UK didn't start the fire while the Ukraine is burning ..Open ears
Challenger Chieftain was the last model. Best tank in the world as long as it breaks down in an ideal firing position. I agree unless the influx of Russian money to the city offers some sort of influence Still think Ukraine should get the storm shadows and let them use them how they want to.
 
On June 21st 133 mainly western funded NGOs received legal exemption from mobilization

"In essence, before our eyes, the official confirmation of the existence of a new caste has taken place. A kind of new nobility. True, unlike the traditional one, on the contrary, officially protected from war. 133 grant organizations are not those whom you elected in the elections, and not those whom those whom you elected appointed to the executive power. This is a completely separate caste, now formalized by a decree of the Cabinet of Ministers, special because... special. They do not pay taxes, do not fight, essentially, they govern. Let's be honest, the nobility could not even dream of such a thing,"

Maksym Buzhansky People's Deputy from the Servant of the People party,
 
it does seem increasingly unlikely to me that Ukraine would do this without the say so of the USA(NATO) and that the immediate briefing of "we dont know about this" is there as a smokescreen of plausible deniability. Truth... war... etc It doesn't really make any difference unless the US didnt know and got annoyed about it
 
I don't believe for a second that anyone here earnestly believes that Putin is a great guy who was unfairly forced into a land grab from a smaller neighbour, thus framing him for an invasion he never wanted.
And anyone who does say that is having you on just to see what the reaction will be.

I believe it's naive to think the costly effort to control Ukraine would be put to rest with a peace agreement. It's more likely that things get put on pause even if in the future Putin is no longer a part of it.
 
Once again, they go for a slow drip of tech that probably makes little difference at this point (with Ukraine inside Russia), but would have made a huge difference a year and a half ago. Still, it beats getting cut off by Trump.
The Biden administration is “open” to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, a move that would give Kyiv’s F-16s greater combat punch as it seeks to gain further momentum in its fight against Russia.

The White House’s willingness to give Ukraine the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile comes as Kyiv’s surprisingly successful ground assault deep inside Russia heads into its second week, embarrassing Vladimir Putin and forcing him to redirect troops from the battlefield in Ukraine.

No final decision has been made on sending the missile, but the administration is working through the complicated details now, according to one Biden administration official. Those issues include reviews of the transfer of sensitive technologies, and ensuring Ukraine’s jets can launch the 2,400-pound missile that carries a 1,000-pound warhead.

...

The air-launched missiles would give the Ukrainian air force a capability only a handful of other nations have: launching a cruise missile over 200 miles from a U.S.-made fourth-generation fighter plane.

While talks continue inside the White House and Pentagon, the administration official warned that there is plenty of work to do before any missiles actually make their way to Ukraine, including making sure that Kyiv’s existing Soviet-era planes and its freshly delivered F-16s can launch the missile at targets over 230 miles away.

The Pentagon is already working with Ukraine on those technical issues, two of the people said.

The JASSM, developed by Lockheed Martin and first fielded in the early 2000s, has been used by the U.S. sparingly in combat and has been shared with only a handful of close allies.

...

Missile maker Lockheed Martin has delivered over 4,100 JASSMs in various configurations to the U.S. Air Force and allies over the years, with a new production line in Alabama churning out around 45 missiles a month to reach a stockpile goal of 7,200 missiles, according to Pentagon data.
 
Once again, they go for a slow drip of tech that probably makes little difference at this point (with Ukraine inside Russia), but would have made a huge difference a year and a half ago. Still, it beats getting cut off by Trump.
The Biden administration is “open” to sending long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, a move that would give Kyiv’s F-16s greater combat punch as it seeks to gain further momentum in its fight against Russia.

The White House’s willingness to give Ukraine the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile comes as Kyiv’s surprisingly successful ground assault deep inside Russia heads into its second week, embarrassing Vladimir Putin and forcing him to redirect troops from the battlefield in Ukraine.

No final decision has been made on sending the missile, but the administration is working through the complicated details now, according to one Biden administration official. Those issues include reviews of the transfer of sensitive technologies, and ensuring Ukraine’s jets can launch the 2,400-pound missile that carries a 1,000-pound warhead.

...

The air-launched missiles would give the Ukrainian air force a capability only a handful of other nations have: launching a cruise missile over 200 miles from a U.S.-made fourth-generation fighter plane.

While talks continue inside the White House and Pentagon, the administration official warned that there is plenty of work to do before any missiles actually make their way to Ukraine, including making sure that Kyiv’s existing Soviet-era planes and its freshly delivered F-16s can launch the missile at targets over 230 miles away.

The Pentagon is already working with Ukraine on those technical issues, two of the people said.

The JASSM, developed by Lockheed Martin and first fielded in the early 2000s, has been used by the U.S. sparingly in combat and has been shared with only a handful of close allies.

...

Missile maker Lockheed Martin has delivered over 4,100 JASSMs in various configurations to the U.S. Air Force and allies over the years, with a new production line in Alabama churning out around 45 missiles a month to reach a stockpile goal of 7,200 missiles, according to Pentagon data.

Almost like they want the war to just keep going...
 
The main bridge to the gluswhatever bit of land in Kursk has now fallen after several attempts over the last few days, and Ukraine attacking in this direction. Area is as good as cut off from rest of Russia. Surprised they haven’t done better at stopping this incursion, though they appear to be hitting some equipment in Sumy Ukraine likely involved in the operation from long range.

Apologies for the Twitter link, just a picture confirming bridge has been dropped. Given the difficulty UAF had taking out a similar bridge in Kherson I wouldn’t discount Russia having done this themselves in retreat.

 
The main bridge to the gluswhatever bit of land in Kursk has now fallen after several attempts over the last few days, and Ukraine attacking in this direction. Area is as good as cut off from rest of Russia. Surprised they haven’t done better at stopping this incursion, though they appear to be hitting some equipment in Sumy Ukraine likely involved in the operation from long range.

Apologies for the Twitter link, just a picture confirming bridge has been dropped. Given the difficulty UAF had taking out a similar bridge in Kherson I wouldn’t discount Russia having done this themselves in retreat.



 
^
"Footage of the Ukrainian Air Force dropping the Russian-held bridge over the Seym River at Glushkovo, Kursk Oblast. At least one fighter-launched glide bomb hit the span, destroying it."

1723840193220.png
 
Ah, that’ll do it. Twitter knobs were claiming it was a HIMARS strike (which the four holes already apparent in the bridge likely was) but they’re not particularly good at structural damage, a big glide bomb a bit more effective.

Russia already has a pontoon bridge built alongside, which seems an impressively fast result unlike some of their other flatfootednese in the area. I guess something they must have already considered.
 
Excellent piece on the war in the L'Unità newspaper today. Attacco folle dell’Ucraina in Russia: solo Putin può scongiurare la Terza Guerra Mondiale

Translated:


The Madness of the West in Arms

Ukraine's Crazy Attack on Russia: Only Putin Can Avert World War III

There is no point in pretending that nothing has happened. We are on the brink of the third world war. In a condition in which there is only one hope that this war can be avoided.

Editorials - by Piero Sansonetti
August 17, 2024 at 07:00

The enthusiasm that the crazy attack by Ukraine on Russian territory has aroused in the establishment and in the mainstream Western press – especially the Italian one – is astonishing. Anyone who is capable of reasoning – completely outside of their political ideas – cannot fail to understand that we have entered a phase of the war from which it will be very difficult to emerge. And that the war, now completely evident and without any possibility of misunderstanding, is between Putin 's Russia and NATO.

This war directly and dramatically involves Europe above all. Which, however, is at this moment an entity without a government or political idea, with its two leading countries experiencing a very acute crisis of leadership – the German Social Democracy is exhausted, the Macronists and the French Socialists are in a clear minority – and finds itself completely at the mercy of the United States, which, in turn, is experiencing a crisis of leadership that they have not known since at least the 1930s. There is no point in pretending that nothing has happened. We are on the brink of the third world war . In a condition in which there is only one hope that this war can be avoided. And that hope, paradoxically, is Putin. The only possibility of avoiding Armageddon is for the Russian dictator to prove himself wiser than Western leaders and save the world as Nikita Khrushchev did in 1962 at the time of the Cuban crisis.

It is in this situation that politics shows its agony. It is not there. It has closed the shutters. Let the big lobbies, the weapons manufacturers, the agglomerates of economic power that control the intellect and information, let them decide. Or let the fate of humanity be entrusted to the hands of a few leaders, weak, unprepared, without personality, capable only of making some electoral calculations based on polls. Do you remember how the First World War began, which produced about 25 million deaths and then caused Nazism? No, you don't remember, because no one knows exactly why it broke out. They say it was the fault of a certain Gavrilo Princip. Student. There. Who knows if there will still be anyone alive in the world to say that it was a whim of a certain Zelensky...
 
The only possibility of avoiding Armageddon is for the Russian dictator to prove himself wiser than Western leaders and save the world as Nikita Khrushchev did in 1962 at the time of the Cuban crisis.

What a load of shit.

Crediting either Khrushchev or Putin with saving the world from their own aggression is straight-up bollocks.

It's like giving a rapist a round of applause and a pat on the back when he stops his assault.
 
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Excellent piece on the war in the L'Unità newspaper today. Attacco folle dell’Ucraina in Russia: solo Putin può scongiurare la Terza Guerra Mondiale

Translated:

The Madness of the West in Arms

Ukraine's Crazy Attack on Russia: Only Putin Can Avert World War III

There is no point in pretending that nothing has happened. We are on the brink of the third world war. In a condition in which there is only one hope that this war can be avoided.

Editorials - by Piero Sansonetti
August 17, 2024 at 07:00

The enthusiasm that the crazy attack by Ukraine on Russian territory has aroused in the establishment and in the mainstream Western press – especially the Italian one – is astonishing. Anyone who is capable of reasoning – completely outside of their political ideas – cannot fail to understand that we have entered a phase of the war from which it will be very difficult to emerge. And that the war, now completely evident and without any possibility of misunderstanding, is between Putin 's Russia and NATO.

This war directly and dramatically involves Europe above all. Which, however, is at this moment an entity without a government or political idea, with its two leading countries experiencing a very acute crisis of leadership – the German Social Democracy is exhausted, the Macronists and the French Socialists are in a clear minority – and finds itself completely at the mercy of the United States, which, in turn, is experiencing a crisis of leadership that they have not known since at least the 1930s. There is no point in pretending that nothing has happened. We are on the brink of the third world war . In a condition in which there is only one hope that this war can be avoided. And that hope, paradoxically, is Putin. The only possibility of avoiding Armageddon is for the Russian dictator to prove himself wiser than Western leaders and save the world as Nikita Khrushchev did in 1962 at the time of the Cuban crisis.

It is in this situation that politics shows its agony. It is not there. It has closed the shutters. Let the big lobbies, the weapons manufacturers, the agglomerates of economic power that control the intellect and information, let them decide. Or let the fate of humanity be entrusted to the hands of a few leaders, weak, unprepared, without personality, capable only of making some electoral calculations based on polls. Do you remember how the First World War began, which produced about 25 million deaths and then caused Nazism? No, you don't remember, because no one knows exactly why it broke out. They say it was the fault of a certain Gavrilo Princip. Student. There. Who knows if there will still be anyone alive in the world to say that it was a whim of a certain Zelensky...

Maybe it sounds better in the original Italian, but this translation is some of the dumbest shit I've ever read.

Do you remember how the First World War began, which produced about 25 million deaths and then caused Nazism? No, you don't remember, because no one knows exactly why it broke out.
 
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