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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

it's as tho there's never before been a human conflict in which the belligerents didn't trust one another, the way people are on about the impossibility of a peace agreed with the kremlin's current incumbent
 
Pickman's model said:
it's as tho there's never before been a human conflict in which the belligerents didn't trust one another, the way people are on about the impossibility of a peace agreed with the kremlin's current incumbent
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That's not accurate. Peace is extremely difficult with a combination of the Kremlin's current incumbents, and the determination of Ukraine to not give up their lands and people. I think it's accurate to state that one of those would have to change for a peace agreement right this second. Neither seems likely, but Ukraine facing irrecoverable losses and deciding enough is enough is the more likely of the two.

Right this second, that is. Everything can change over time.
 
Chz said:
That's not accurate. Peace is extremely difficult with a combination of the Kremlin's current incumbents, and the determination of Ukraine to not give up their lands and people. I think it's accurate to state that one of those would have to change for a peace agreement right this second. Neither seems likely, but Ukraine facing irrecoverable losses and deciding enough is enough is the more likely of the two.

Right this second, that is. Everything can change over time.
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Which Ukraine is that? The 10% or so of Ukrainians that want the Russians to win or the Ukraine that's hiding from the draft?

A swift win for Ukraine was always the best option, that hasn't happened. The other options are try to make peace of some kind or total war.
 
Chz said:
That's not accurate. Peace is extremely difficult with a combination of the Kremlin's current incumbents, and the determination of Ukraine to not give up their lands and people. I think it's accurate to state that one of those would have to change for a peace agreement right this second. Neither seems likely, but Ukraine facing irrecoverable losses and deciding enough is enough is the more likely of the two.

Right this second, that is. Everything can change over time.
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well that's not accurate. no one bar you is talking about a peace agreement 'right this second'. and it's not likely that either the leadership of russia or possession of the occupied lands is going to change today or indeed for some time to come. any peace overtures will take some time to develop, as the discussions before the peace of amiens (1803) did. and talking of the peace of amiens, the basic conditions ensuring war don't have to be resolved to end it, even on a temporary basis.
 
Pickman's model said:
well that's not accurate. no one bar you is talking about a peace agreement 'right this second'. and it's not likely that either the leadership of russia or possession of the occupied lands is going to change today or indeed for some time to come. any peace overtures will take some time to develop, as the discussions before the peace of amiens (1803) did. and talking of the peace of amiens, the basic conditions ensuring war don't have to be resolved to end it, even on a temporary basis.
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That's fair. But it does just mean that discussing possible peace terms now is as useful and accurate as the armchair generals on reddit telling Ukraine how they can win the war. You're basically just stating "There will be a peace someday". And I can agree with that 100%.
 
ska invita said:
I think the war should've stopped a long time ago,
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So do most posters on here expect for the pro-war Putin fan boys.


But on its own this is a meaningless statement. How do you think it should be stopped? Because the power to stop the war sits with Putin but you don't seem interested in that fact and instead seem to think the power to stop the war sits somewhere else.
 
Chz said:
That's fair. But it does just mean that discussing possible peace terms now is as useful and accurate as the armchair generals on reddit telling Ukraine how they can win the war. You're basically just stating "There will be a peace someday". And I can agree with that 100%.
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that doesn't follow at all but never mind.
 
emanymton said:
So do most posters on here expect for the pro-war Putin fan boys.


But on its own this is a meaningless statement. How do you think it should be stopped? Because the power to stop the war sits with Putin but you don't seem interested in that fact and instead seem to think the power to stop the war sits somewhere else.
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Could you name these Pro-war Putin Fanbois?, the claim there some here sounds like bollox to me
 
_Russ_ said:
Could you name these Pro-war Putin Fanbois?, the claim there some here sounds like bollox to me
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I don't believe for a second that anyone here earnestly believes that Putin is a great guy who was unfairly forced into a land grab from a smaller neighbour, thus framing him for an invasion he never wanted.
And anyone who does say that is having you on just to see what the reaction will be.
 
emanymton said:
So do most posters on here expect for the pro-war Putin fan boys.


But on its own this is a meaningless statement. How do you think it should be stopped? Because the power to stop the war sits with Putin but you don't seem interested in that fact and instead seem to think the power to stop the war sits somewhere else.
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yes, there are two lots of people who can stop the war without the painful necessity for negotiations. the putin administration and the governments of the countries supplying ukraine with arms. either lot have it in their power to end the conflict in short order. the only people who can't end the war (bar by surrendering or some as yet unforeseen coup de main) are the ukrainians.
 
Pickman's model said:
yes, there are two lots of people who can stop the war without the painful necessity for negotiations. the putin administration and the governments of the countries supplying ukraine with arms. either lot have it in their power to end the conflict in short order. the only people who can't end the war (bar by surrendering or some as yet unforeseen coup de main) are the ukrainians.
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I think the Ukrainians made it fairly plain that they intended to fight an Afghan-style guerilla war if they were defeated in a conventional military sense. It's naive to think the conflict and killing would end just because the West stopped supplying arms. Conflict will only end when both sides find a mutual peace they can live with.
 
Pickman's model said:
yes, there are two lots of people who can stop the war without the painful necessity for negotiations. the putin administration and the governments of the countries supplying ukraine with arms. either lot have it in their power to end the conflict in short order. the only people who can't end the war (bar by surrendering or some as yet unforeseen coup de main) are the ukrainians.
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I've given up replying to you.

But this is just incoherent gibberish.

Stopping the supply of arms to Ukraine won't stop the war just change it.

You say that Ukraine can't stop the war why does that change if they are no longer supplied weapons? You know no one is forcing weapons on them right? Uncle Sam is stood there ready to club them if they don't take and use some artillery ammo.

What you are saying is you want Ukraine to surrender and for Russia to win, that is the only logical end point of this argument.

I assume thought the same when the US and UK invaded Iraq right? Oh wait no you didn't you are just politicaly incoherent.
 
Chz said:
I think the Ukrainians made it fairly plain that they intended to fight an Afghan-style guerilla war if they were defeated in a conventional military sense. It's naive to think the conflict and killing would end just because the West stopped supplying arms. Conflict will only end when both sides find a mutual peace they can live with.
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could end major military operations, the conflict as it is, you name it - you know what i mean and it is disingenuous to act as you do. and if the likes of shammer stopped chucking money as well as arms it's anyone's guess how the ukrainians would proceed.
 
Pickman's model said:
could end major military operations, the conflict as it is, you name it - you know what i mean and it is disingenuous to act as you do. and if the likes of shammer stopped chucking money as well as arms it's anyone's guess how the ukrainians would proceed.
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I'm no expert. Perhaps we could ask Gerry Adams? There are at least as many Ukrainian expats now as there were Irish ones 50 years ago.
"disingenuous". LOL. Does it stop people being killed in serious numbers and terrorising civilians or not? Easy question. Yes/no.
 
The Russian TV talking heads in this clip seem glum about the immediate prospects in Kursk Oblast, much glummer than some alleged Fanbois posting here. Paradoxically, it also seems to go against the belief that there is no open debate in Russia, as the Hammers of the Fanbois sometimes claim. One idea floatedis that that Ukrainian Intelligence successfully timed and organised this surprise to coincide with the sinking of the Kursk, and thereby humiliate the regime. Another is that they want the Russians to launch a destructive assault on Sudzha the Ukrainian occupyed town which is also a central junction in the revenue earning gaspipeline to Europe: not bothering to employ divers this time but getting the Russian Army to do it themselves.

Notable quotes:

"Constant lies are coming from our own side about the weakness of the Ukrainian army"
"Let's not utter Kadyrov's name, so that none of us has later to apologise to him."

 
Chz said:
I'm no expert. Perhaps we could ask Gerry Adams? There are at least as many Ukrainian expats now as there were Irish ones 50 years ago.
"disingenuous". LOL. Does it stop people being killed in serious numbers and terrorising civilians or not? Easy question. Yes/no
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Do you think the Ukrainians would be prepared to pay the butcher's bill of either the 2001-22 Afghan war or the 1979-87 conflict? 500k civilians dead? I am not persuaded they would. If you think it'd be maybe 3k dead as in the troubles I think you need to check your working
 
Pickman's model said:
could end major military operations, the conflict as it is, you name it - you know what i mean and it is disingenuous to act as you do. and if the likes of shammer stopped chucking money as well as arms it's anyone's guess how the ukrainians would proceed.
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The result would be Ukrainian military would eventually be worn down by the Russian military and would be under Russian occupation up to the Dniester River, leaving a rump landlocked West Ukraine, and likely a Russian annexation of Transnistria region of Moldova. Also quite likely is Hungarian annexation of regions of Ukraine with significant Hungarian speaking populations.

It seems to me that there is a lack of discussion here about what this would mean for Ukraine, Europe and the world.

Can you tell me in good faith exactly what you think the outcome would be if support to Ukraine stopped, if not the above?
 
Rimbaud said:
The result would be Ukrainian military would eventually be worn down by the Russian military and would be under Russian occupation up to the Dniester River, leaving a rump landlocked West Ukraine, and likely a Russian annexation of Transnistria region of Moldova. Also quite likely is Hungarian annexation of regions of Ukraine with significant Hungarian speaking populations.

It seems to me that there is a lack of discussion here about what this would mean for Ukraine, Europe and the world.

Can you tell me in good faith exactly what you think the outcome would be if support to Ukraine stopped, if not the above?
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Oh I don't doubt any way this war ends won't be appalling.
 
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