Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact

Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

If he changes course he definitely loses Crimea and the new 'independent states': and power

I don't think he does - have that as a negotiating position (as in Ukraine recognizes the independent states and Crimea going to Russia (the independent states going to Russia too, probably) and a promise from them and NATO not to join in X years in exchange for a full withdrawal and he could even now walk away and claim he's "won". Its certainly better than staying there and either getting humiliated or end up killing huge numbers of people.
 
I don't think he does - have that as a negotiating position (as in Ukraine recognizes the independent states and Crimea going to Russia (the independent states going to Russia too, probably) and a promise from them and NATO not to join in X years in exchange for a full withdrawal and he could even now walk away and claim he's "won". Its certainly better than staying there and either getting humiliated or end up killing huge numbers of people.
Yeh. But that's a big big ask
 
Lots of seemingly authoritative sounding people on Twitter continue to be baffled by the Russian tactics. Looks like they are doing large-scale ground offensives using largely just infantry now, which many seem to have as somewhere between risky and reckless:







On the plus side, the fearsome Turkish drones that were decisive in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict have gone to work on some of the Russian columns. I've never been quite sure why these drones are so high impact but they clearly did some damage here:

 
Lots of seemingly authoritative sounding people on Twitter continue to be baffled by the Russian tactics. Looks like they are doing large-scale ground offensives using largely just infantry now, which many seem to have as somewhere between risky and reckless:


If they don't have tanks and such backing them up it's only a matter of time for Ukrainians to home in on them. According to Wesley Clark, Russia's tactic is to spread out and feel where the enemy is. This could be that type of thing I guess.
 
From Politico this morning


On Sunday morning, President Zelenskiy’s office announced the formation of a new unit, the International Legion of the Territorial Defense of Ukraine, to be made up of foreigners who wish to fight for the country. “Anyone who wants to join the defense of security in Europe and the world can come and stand side by side with Ukrainians against the invaders of the 21st century,” Zelenskiy said in a statement.

“Foreigners willing to defend Ukraine and world order as part of the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine, I invite you to contact foreign diplomatic missions of Ukraine in your respective countries,” Foreign Affairs Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter. “Together we defeated Hitler, and we will defeat Putin, too.”
 
Crimea is a good example of the 'unnatural' boundaries of so much of the ex-Soviet Union. After Russian conquest in the 18th century the population was mixed, Russian and Crimean Tatar, and others. After WW2 Stalin and his pals deported all the Crimean Tatars to central Asia, along with other minorities, Greeks, Italians, Germans, etc. It was only in 1954 (I think) that Krushchev 'gifted' the Crimea to the Ukraine. Previously it was part of the Russian Federation. If the Tatars, the ones who survived the brutal deportation, had been allowed back the ethnic balance would have been very different. But they weren't and most of them are still in Uzbekistan. So who does Crimea belong to? Fuck knows.
 
Turkey, who have been fluffing around for the last few days, have finally decided the war is, err, a war.

Turkey referred to the Russian invasion as a “war” on Sunday, marking a strengthening of its rhetoric that could pave the way for a blockade of Russian ships through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits connecting the Mediterranean and Black Sea.

“On the fourth day of the Ukraine war, we repeat president Erdogan’s call for an immediate halt of Russian attacks and the start of ceasefire negotiations,” presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin said on Twitter.

By accepting it's war, they now have the right to limiting Russian warships moving between the Black Sea & the Mediterranean, although they would still have to let Russian warships into the Black Sea, if that's their home base.

LINK
 
Germany double their defence budget, finally meeting the NATO requirement of 2% that Trump admonished them for failing to deliver. Not sure this is what Putin had in mind.

 
Turkey, who have been fluffing around for the last few days, have finally decided the war is, err, a war.



By accepting it's war, they now have the right to limiting Russian warships moving between the Black Sea & the Mediterranean, although they would still have to let Russian warships into the Black Sea, if that's their home base.

LINK
But equally this would I suppose prevent NATO ships from non-black sea countries from passing the bosphorus
 
Back
Top Bottom