Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[nogojones]

His spirit lives

Oh that is disappointing from the IRSP

 

[Pickman's model]

Oh that is disappointing from the IRSP

Very much so

 

[Aladdin]

His spirit lives

They seem to have muddled up their flags

 

[Artaxerxes]

Any idea if that's on Netflix?

I believe his production company uploaded it to YouTube last week

 

[IC3D]

I am wondering to what extent russian forces are not complying in a way that won't cost them jail time. Letting your tank run out of petrol or firing ordinance into Kyiev city dump might be indications.

Posted in error on ather thread Pickman's model

 

[planetgeli]

Looks like the Kharkiv ground assault, such as it was, has probably now failed.

Spoiler: Aftermath of battle

This is the trouble with 24/7 rolling Urban. Concrete statements being made on the basis of one day's fighting and (understandable) optimistic propaganda. 3-4 days in and we're discussing hoped for military coups (yeah, right) and Putin giving up. This is the Russian army, one of the biggest in the world (even if they have lost 4,000 troops, which they probably haven't, that's 0.4% of their total). And the terrain is not Afghanistan. All the analysis I've read from the last 3-4 years talking about this predicted Ukraine would be difficult to take. Putin did not just expect to walk in and them roll over (I'm surprised you suggested this might be true kebabking ). He's certainly not about to retreat. The Russians are advancing. Three second attention spans and a desire for everything to be sorted in days, not months or years, is not what is required here.

 

[discokermit]

some british feller in ukraine, day to day life,

 

[not-bono-ever]

the use of the term insurgent is interesting- generally accepted as those against a legit government iirc- was utterly killed to death during the middle east adventures where anyone who wasnt supportive of the latest puppet regime was labelled an insurgent. propaganda

 

[Pickman's model]

I am wondering to what extent russian forces are not complying in a way that won't cost them jail time. Letting your tank run out of petrol or firing ordinance into Kyiev city dump might be indications.

Posted in error on ather thread Pickman's model

 

[steveo87]

Your URL not durable

Ah bloody hell, sorry, I'll bin it.

 

[Diamond]

Interesting overview from retired US Joint Chief:

 

[dilute micro]

This is the trouble with 24/7 rolling Urban. Concrete statements being made on the basis of one day's fighting and (understandable) optimistic propaganda. 3-4 days in and we're discussing hoped for military coups (yeah, right) and Putin giving up. This is the Russian army, one of the biggest in the world (even if they have lost 4,000 troops, which they probably haven't, that's 0.4% of their total). And the terrain is not Afghanistan. All the analysis I've read from the last 3-4 years talking about this predicted Ukraine would be difficult to take. Putin did not just expect to walk in and them roll over (I'm surprised you suggested this might be true kebabking ). He's certainly not about to retreat. The Russians are advancing. Three second attention spans and a desire for everything to be sorted in days, not months or years, is not what is required here.

You're against concrete statements but you say, "Putin did not just expect to walk in and them roll over". Well, how would you know? And it's not as if kebabking or others here are all alone in their ideas. Experts across the world have said the same things. This is really no time for urban thought police. This thread has been sensible on the whole. And understand that in a conflict there's more that just factual information and propaganda. There are also things thought to be true as reported from the battlefield that eventually turn out to be wrong. That's just the way it is. No fault on anybody posting it on here.

 

[mauvais]

This is of limited value given how speculative it is, but interesting nonetheless:



Meanwhile... it seems to me there is quite a lot of "continuity USSR" assumptions underpinning these kind of threads. People are wondering why it's just confused teenagers being taken prisoner, why underprepared and isolated forces are taking a kicking, why the latest kit from a Wikipedia list of equipment isn't in play. And it's because this, what you're seeing, is it, the state of the modern Russian military. They've not thrown everything at it but nobody would. But there's not some higher echelon being held in reserve for this. As a nation they've got a few set pieces to retain a foothold in the defence supply game, and then decades of under investment and collapse of the military.

Even in Georgia which was low difficulty they got an absolute kicking, lost most of their armour and shot down a bunch of their own planes. This time on a far tougher job they are taking another one, allegedly really big losses, and being left with little to show for it.

I wouldn't like to predict the long term outcome of this war but Russia is in trouble after all this - this badly planned invasion has revealed a significant truth that was much better left unconfirmed. I'm sure it will be taken advantage of somehow or other.

And in terms of what comes next, let's just say it's not how you would want to fight a war. Even with different doctrines you would want overwhelming initial force, air dominance and clear strongholds and to get it done before resupply made a big difference. None of it seems to have been forthcoming. There's loads of casual talk of ghost-in-the-machine possibilities like thermobaric rockets but they'd have to actually be in a position to deploy the fucking things. I don't know what will happen but I don't think there's any clear linear path towards anything more than what we've seen: an incoherent mess.

 

[Cid]

This is the trouble with 24/7 rolling Urban. Concrete statements being made on the basis of one day's fighting and (understandable) optimistic propaganda. 3-4 days in and we're discussing hoped for military coups (yeah, right) and Putin giving up. This is the Russian army, one of the biggest in the world (even if they have lost 4,000 troops, which they probably haven't, that's 0.4% of their total). And the terrain is not Afghanistan. All the analysis I've read from the last 3-4 years talking about this predicted Ukraine would be difficult to take. Putin did not just expect to walk in and them roll over (I'm surprised you suggested this might be true kebabking ). He's certainly not about to retreat. The Russians are advancing. Three second attention spans and a desire for everything to be sorted in days, not months or years, is not what is required here.

How would Putin finance an extended war in Ukraine though?

 

[Pickman's model]

Interesting overview from retired US Joint Chief:

Why not summarise the 24 tweet thread so people know whether to read it in this fast moving situation?

 

[not-bono-ever]

How would Putin finance an extended war in Ukraine though?

He cant

/glib but yeh, this is one of the reasons that I didn't expect him to commit- obvs i was wrong on that, but russia isnt as wealthy as the media suggests when they talk about war chest and stuff

 

[Pickman's model]

How would Putin finance an extended war in Ukraine though?

With great difficulty

 

[SpookyFrank]

Why not summarise the 24 tweet thread so people know whether to read it in this fast moving situation?

Well it's from a US military brass who served in the last 20 years so definitely someone with an inside track on how to fail miserably despite an overwhelming resource advantage.

 

[cupid_stunt]

But equally this would I suppose prevent NATO ships from non-black sea countries from passing the bosphorus

I doubt it, Turkey is a NATO member, why would they restrict movement of NATO ships?

 

[bluescreen]

This observation, from Maj.Gen (retd) Mick Ryan's long thread posted above, is interesting:
"They are clearly seeking a low-cost victory, partly because they know they need to govern Ukraine if they are successful." It begs a lot of questions but they haven't been treating it like Grozny or Syria.

 

[Smangus]

Posted here for wider exposure , Lewisham Polish Centre is collecting clothing for refugees entering Poland from Ukraine.


Lewisham Polish Centre
8, WALDRAM PARK ROAD
SE23 2PN London - Forest Hill
Greater London England

Phone:​

020 8699 0401​

Dear Facebook friends.

Lewisham Polish Centre is organising the collection of necessary products for refugees from Ukraine in Poland. I will be taking things there on Tuesday after work so if you would like to help, you can bring any items to my house by Tuesday morning or go directly there Lewisham Polish Centre 8 Waldram Park Rd, London SE23 2PN.

Thank you

Current collection days and times
Sunday 27th February 1-6pm
Monday 9:30am-12noon and 6pm-8pm
Tuesday 5:30-8pm

what is needed:

Thermal blankets,
sleeping bags,
bedding,
mats,
military mattresses
blankets
Raincoats
Pillows
Personal hygiene products
Toothpaste,
toothbrush
Wet wipes
Pampers and sanitary napkins
Paper towels
Antibacterial fluids,
medical spirit
Disposable and reusable masks
Dressings,
liquid for disinfecting and disinfecting wounds
Bandages of dressings Celox (i.e. granules for quick staunching blood and gauze) Turnstiles, or tourniquets to stop blood.
Field tents
Camp beds
Coal furnaces
Cooking cauldrons
Microfiber towels Reusable tableware sets, i.e. plates and cutlery
Batteries of various sizes,
candles,
flashlights.

From food: All kinds of instant food (i.e. instant soups to be poured with boiling water, etc.)
Breakfast cereals
Energy bars
Dried fruits
Pasta

Instant groats If you can bring to our center items from the above list, tomorrow on Sunday, February 27 from 13. Please do not leave your belongings at the center. It will also be possible to do it in the next week.

What do we need:
- packaging cartons

Thank you

 

[Pickman's model]

Well it's from a US military brass who served in the last 20 years so definitely someone with an inside track on how to fail miserably despite an overwhelming resource advantage.

I know because I've read it. My point is people who post up something like that should indicate why it is 'interesting' - and your post doesn't capture his observations on the whys of Russia's manoeuvrings and his analysis of why Ukraine are doing better than Russia anticipated, which are imo more useful than you suggest. Simply put people should explain why videos are worth watching or Twitter threads add to understanding just like it says in the faq.

 

[Pickman's model]

Posted here for wider exposure , Lewisham Polish Centre is collecting clothing for refugees entering Poland from Ukraine.


Lewisham Polish Centre
8, WALDRAM PARK ROAD
SE23 2PN London - Forest Hill
Greater London England

​

Phone:​

020 8699 0401​

Dear Facebook friends.

Lewisham Polish Centre is organising the collection of necessary products for refugees from Ukraine in Poland. I will be taking things there on Tuesday after work so if you would like to help, you can bring any items to my house by Tuesday morning or go directly there Lewisham Polish Centre 8 Waldram Park Rd, London SE23 2PN.

Thank you

Current collection days and times
Sunday 27th February 1-6pm
Monday 9:30am-12noon and 6pm-8pm
Tuesday 5:30-8pm

what is needed:

Thermal blankets,
sleeping bags,
bedding,
mats,
military mattresses
blankets
Raincoats
Pillows
Personal hygiene products
Toothpaste,
toothbrush
Wet wipes
Pampers and sanitary napkins
Paper towels
Antibacterial fluids,
medical spirit
Disposable and reusable masks
Dressings,
liquid for disinfecting and disinfecting wounds
Bandages of dressings Celox (i.e. granules for quick staunching blood and gauze) Turnstiles, or tourniquets to stop blood.
Field tents
Camp beds
Coal furnaces
Cooking cauldrons
Microfiber towels Reusable tableware sets, i.e. plates and cutlery
Batteries of various sizes,
candles,
flashlights.

From food: All kinds of instant food (i.e. instant soups to be poured with boiling water, etc.)
Breakfast cereals
Energy bars
Dried fruits
Pasta

Instant groats If you can bring to our center items from the above list, tomorrow on Sunday, February 27 from 13. Please do not leave your belongings at the center. It will also be possible to do it in the next week.

What do we need:
- packaging cartons

Thank you

This is one of the reasons we need a forum so people looking for ways to help can find stuff like this on a dedicated thread rather than lost on other discussions

 

[two sheds]

I know because I've read it. My point is people who post up something like that should indicate why it is 'interesting' - and your post doesn't capture his observations on the whys of Russia's manoeuvrings and his analysis of why Ukraine are doing better than Russia anticipated, which are imo more useful than you suggest. Simply put people should explain why videos are worth watching or Twitter threads add to understanding just like it says in the faq.

Hadn't struck me before but a good description is also useful if you do watch it and then want to find it again some time afterwards.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hadn't struck me before but a good description is also useful if you do watch it and then want to find it again some time afterwards.

Very good point, hadn't thought of that

 

[Diamond]

I know because I've read it. My point is people who post up something like that should indicate why it is 'interesting' - and your post doesn't capture his observations on the whys of Russia's manoeuvrings and his analysis of why Ukraine are doing better than Russia anticipated, which are imo more useful than you suggest. Simply put people should explain why videos are worth watching or Twitter threads add to understanding just like it says in the faq.

It is interesting because it is the view of a retired US joint chief. It’s all there if you want to see it.

 

[planetgeli]

You're against concrete statements but you say, "Putin did not just expect to walk in and them roll over". Well, how would you know?

Because I've read quite a few summaries and analysis of the situation over the last few years. And I'm expecting Putin might have been better briefed than me.

 

[Pickman's model]

It is interesting because it is the view of a retired US joint chief. It’s all there if you want to see it.

That's not a summary of what he says, is it. I thought lawyers were skilled in the understanding and use of English but I see I was much mistaken in your case at least

 

[planetgeli]

How would Putin finance an extended war in Ukraine though?

By starving the workers I'd imagine. The man is ex-KGB. People are dust to him.

 

[brogdale]

FFS