Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[frogwoman]

Lol lots of commentary on a Russian meme page about how Facebook has (according to Putin) been involved in violating fundamental human rights and personal freedoms in Russia

'And we even know which person'

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Putin will likely have to hold Ukraine down with a large force. This is the other part of the "successful invasion" equation. Ukraine is a big place and now has many acorns of hate planted all over the country. Russia can't afford to suddenly expand the size of its army by 300K and then go back to spending money on upgrading the military weapons and gear to keep up with the rest of the world, which they are not finished doing. I think Putin's long-term planning on this isn't known yet but it looks like he thought this would be easier.

Added to the headache is that holding against an insurgency well supplied with high tech weapons rather then just molotov cocktails.

 

[Pickman's model]

A fatal heart attack would do.

I am not persuaded that the next person would be more pacific

 

[frogwoman]

 

[SpookyFrank]

Lol lots of commentary on a Russian meme page about how Facebook has (according to Putin) been involved in violating fundamental human rights and personal freedoms in Russia

'And we even know which person'

View attachment 312071

Funny how these human rights violations only came to light once facebook started filling up with stuff about how Putin's shat the bed.

 

[Kaka Tim]

the logical Russian aim is to force the Ukrainian government to accept peace on their terms and withdraw.
But, if they end up wiping out the Ukrainian leadership, who are they going to negotiate with?

 

[Cid]

I think it's clear that Russians plan to quickly move on Kiev by capturing the air port with airborne troops has failed and that they will have to grind it out.
Also likely that they have taken some hefty casualties.
The question now is weather they are prepared to flatten Kiev and other cities.
That would put putins Russia beyond the pale in terms of its relations with just about everyone bar China and under the severest sanctions possible. Would the Russian military and its ruling class be prepared to go along with that?

I think even CCP support is somewhat contingent... Not to say I think it will be withdrawn, but even their veneer of neutrality isn't a particularly good sign for Putin.

 

[SpookyFrank]

I am not persuaded that the next person would be more pacific

Putin suddenly losing power for whatever reason would likely be a catastrophe for ordinary Russians on a par with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But that like so many other things is entirely Putin's own fault.

 

[platinumsage]

I think even CCP support is somewhat contingent... Not to say I think it will be withdrawn, but even their veneer of neutrality isn't a particularly good sign for Putin.

Indeed:

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Footage from Irpin this morning. Warning: dead soldiers.

 

[SpookyFrank]

the logical Russian aim is to force the Ukrainian government to accept peace on their terms and withdraw.
But, if they end up wiping out the Ukrainian leadership, who are they going to negotiate with?

I suspect that installing a patsy regime in Kyiv is the one thing Putin did have a detailed plan for.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Footage from Irpin this morning. Warning: dead soldiers.

Don't think we need that sort of stuff on here tbh.

 

[Kaka Tim]

On a lighter note, it may have been better to keep Russia in euro vision, as it may have led to an a clean sweep of nul points for their entry and a resounding triumph for Ukraine's. Watched by millions from Moscow to vladyvoststock

 

[strung out]

How do weapons pledged to Ukraine from Germany and the Netherlands actually make their way to fighters in combat zones?

Are they flown in, or do they arrive by road and rail? Who delivers them once they're over the Ukrainian border? How soon will they arrive?

Just curious about what these big announcements of pledging support of weapons actually mean.

 

[agricola]

I think it's clear that Russians plan to quickly move on Kiev by capturing the air port with airborne troops has failed and that they will have to grind it out.
Also likely that they have taken some hefty casualties.
The question now is weather they are prepared to flatten Kiev and other cities.
That would put putins Russia beyond the pale in terms of its relations with just about everyone bar China and under the severest sanctions possible. Would the Russian military and its ruling class be prepared to go along with that?

TBF I doubt the Chinese would go along with that either; if anything they might look at (what appears to be) a poorly performing Russian army mired in Ukraine and a completely isolated Russia, and think that there will never be a better time to deal with the last remaining bit of the unequal treaties.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I suspect that installing a patsy regime in Kyiv is the one thing Putin did have a detailed plan for.

But that regime will last about a week without Russian military backing. And that means them fighting a prolonged and unwinnable counter insurgency war.

 

[Lord Camomile]

I suspect that installing a patsy regime in Kyiv is the one thing Putin did have a detailed plan for.

Aye, that was my (rather ill-informed!) assumption too. No doubt there are those who would willingly take his shilling for a scrap of prestige and 'power', just like anywhere else.

On a lighter note, it may have been better to keep Russia in euro vision, as it may have led to an a clean sweep of nul points for their entry and a resounding triumph for Ukraine's. Watched by millions from Moscow to vladyvoststock

Was thinking the other day, if Ukraine did win, would they be in any place to host the next contest?? Guess that all rather still waits to be seen, and can imagine "defiantly staging Eurovision in the aftermath of war" would polish over a good deal of infrastructure issues.

 

[Nikkormat]

Change of subject.

I know a list of charities was posted up earlier in thread but has anyone got a clue where the best place to donate money is?

Also anywhere decent to donate money to support the anti-war movement in Russia? I think supporting them is one of the more useful things we can do. But I suspect a lot of the groups in involved are not really people I want to give money to.

I have donated to People In Need, a Czech organisation which helps refugees. They have a good reputation, and I know people who have worked with them.

There is a list of other organisations here.

 

[two sheds]

On a lighter note, it may have been better to keep Russia in euro vision, as it may have led to an a clean sweep of nul points for their entry and a resounding triumph for Ukraine's. Watched by millions from Moscow to vladyvoststock

I think the transmission would have inexplicably gone down just before the voting, or a cut to a panel of men in furry hats giving Russia dix points dix points dix points ....

Mind you it might have meant UK didn't come last for once (not that I watch it of course).

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin suddenly losing power for whatever reason would likely be a catastrophe for ordinary Russians on a par with the collapse of the Soviet Union. But that like so many other things is entirely Putin's own fault.

That's nothing to do with my post. Which was in response to one about Putin dying. Say Putin does die, which many posters have hoped for, his successor may be at least as belligerent as him. Whoever it is he will still be faced with an army in the middle of a war.

Putin losing power may well be the first step in a Russian civil war. That'd be shit for the Russians but also for everyone else, because wars now aren't simply military campaigns that happen outside everything else. Just the last few days have been shit for the climate for years with much more coal being burned. And there'll many other consequences if this or any resultant war lasts long.

There's no good way for any of this to end

 

[YouSir]

I think the transmission would have inexplicably gone down just before the voting, or a cut to a panel of men in furry hats giving Russia dix points dix points dix points ....

Mind you it might have meant UK didn't come last for once (not that I watch it of course).

Ye of little faith, I bet we could still come last if we really tried.

 

[agricola]

How do weapons pledged to Ukraine from Germany and the Netherlands actually make their way to fighters in combat zones?

Are they flown in, or do they arrive by road and rail? Who delivers them once they're over the Ukrainian border? How soon will they arrive?

Just curious about what these big announcements of pledging support of weapons actually mean.

Getting them to the Ukrainian border is probably the easy bit; what happens to them from that point onwards is unknown. One would imagine that these weapons are being stockpiled for the defence of western Ukraine (with the munitions already there being moved to the areas where the fighting is heaviest).

 

[Pickman's model]

On a lighter note, it may have been better to keep Russia in euro vision, as it may have led to an a clean sweep of nul points for their entry and a resounding triumph for Ukraine's. Watched by millions from Moscow to vladyvoststock

Many countries don't want to win the euros because of the cost of hosting it

 

[dilute micro]

How do weapons pledged to Ukraine from Germany and the Netherlands actually make their way to fighters in combat zones?

Are they flown in, or do they arrive by road and rail? Who delivers them once they're over the Ukrainian border? How soon will they arrive?

Just curious about what these big announcements of pledging support of weapons actually mean.

Wondered the same thing.

 

[YouSir]

That's nothing to do with my post. Which was in response to one about Putin dying. Say Putin does die, which many posters have hoped for, his successor may be at least as belligerent as him. Whoever it is he will still be faced with an army in the middle of a war.

Putin losing power may well be the first step in a Russian civil war. That'd be shit for the Russians but also for everyone else, because wars now aren't simply military campaigns that happen outside everything else. Just the last few days have been shit for the climate for years with much more coal being burned. And there'll many other consequences if this or any resultant war lasts long.

There's no good way for any of this to end

Was wondering who would even fight a civil war, beyond Putin I've no idea what the emergent power blocs could be or who'd actually support them. Generals and Oligarchs, I suppose but neither of them are going to be selling profound ideological goals are they? The Far Right? Are the Ultranationalists a big enough presence without Putin propping them up?

As you say though, no good way for any of this to end.

 

[agricola]

That's nothing to do with my post. Which was in response to one about Putin dying. Say Putin does die, which many posters have hoped for, his successor may be at least as belligerent as him. Whoever it is he will still be faced with an army in the middle of a war.

Putin losing power may well be the first step in a Russian civil war. That'd be shit for the Russians but also for everyone else, because wars now aren't simply military campaigns that happen outside everything else. Just the last few days have been shit for the climate for years with much more coal being burned. And there'll many other consequences if this or any resultant war lasts long.

There's no good way for any of this to end

There might be - its not too late for Putin to understand how catastrophic and entirely self-defeating this was for him and to change course - but a lot of the potential outcomes are bad.

 

[killer b]

On a lighter note, it may have been better to keep Russia in euro vision, as it may have led to an a clean sweep of nul points for their entry and a resounding triumph for Ukraine's. Watched by millions from Moscow to vladyvoststock

there's still a few eurovision contestant countries who're likely to give Russia points, so we'd still likely come last.

Ukraine should have won last year, their entry was a total slammer.

 

[Aladdin]

Funny how these human rights violations only came to light once facebook started filling up with stuff about how Putin's shat the bed.

Great isnt it?
Facebook giving Putin a taste of his own medicine.

I am not persuaded that the next person would be more pacific

It may depend on what happens over the next few days but right now if Putin snuffed it there might not be a rush to continue this war.

 

[TopCat]

Liz Truss announced that the Foreign Office is preparing a "hit list" of Russian oligarchs to be targeted by sanctions in the coming months, with new names added every few weeks.

 

[Pickman's model]

It may depend on what happens over the next few days but right now if Putin snuffed it there might not be a rush to continue this war.

Can't see the Ukrainians sharing that view, don't think they'll rest till there's not a living Russian soldier in the country