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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

idk obviously but find it hard to imagine Ukrainians going oh well, fair play you win, you bombed us good and proper so we accept the new order whatever it is & will not resist any further, and the rest of the world lifting all their sanctions and un-cancelling Putin.
You could say that about most occupations though. You don’t need total compliance to subjugate a country. What has to happen is for Ukraine and the west to get through to the Russian people and the Russian military to see sense and fuck Vlad off. They can’t possibly want a long drawn-out, bloody, occupation in a world where they’re considered pariahs. Fighting them militarily isn’t going to end well for Ukraine/everyone else if ordinary Russians and their forces are motivated to war.
 
You could say that about most occupations though. You don’t need total compliance to subjugate a country. What has to happen is for Ukraine and the west to get through to the Russian people and the Russian military to see sense and fuck Vlad off. They can’t possibly want a long drawn-out, bloody, occupation in a world where they’re considered pariahs. Fighting them militarily isn’t going to end well for Ukraine/everyone else if ordinary Russians and their forces are motivated to war.
More likely start to push things that way so he backs down a bit to stop it going to far. But who knows.
 
Putin playing silly games again, probably for his home audience, by announcing he's sent a negotiating team to Belarus, as if that location for peace talks would ever be acceptable to Ukraine.

If he was genuine in wanting talks, he would take up the offer from Turkey to host them, which has been on the table snice well before the invasion.
 
I think it's clear that Russians plan to quickly move on Kiev by capturing the air port with airborne troops has failed and that they will have to grind it out.
Also likely that they have taken some hefty casualties.
The question now is weather they are prepared to flatten Kiev and other cities.
That would put putins Russia beyond the pale in terms of its relations with just about everyone bar China and under the severest sanctions possible. Would the Russian military and its ruling class be prepared to go along with that?
 
From what I've read so far the speculation on the end game seems to have three scenarios:

1. Total occupation and installation of a (dictatorial) client regime

2. After doing enough damage having a negotiated partition, splitting the country into a 'European' and Russian part - the Russian half would definitely have full access to the Black Sea.

3. Creating a federal structure a bit like the partitioned version but maintaining the totality of Ukraine

...of course no one knows what they have in mind so its all speculation as to which is most likely, though I have heard a convincing case for #2.
 
Is there a way for him to back down now without humiliatingly losing face ?
Taking Putin's utterances at their word its possible to speculate that this "special operation" is not a war of occupation but a "demilitarising" mission - i.e. kick the shit out of the country for a bit, weaken its structures, resilience and military capacity.... so as that when a suitable to Putin outcome is achieved (say #2 partition mentioned above) there isn't an immediate fightback on the scale there would be if they hadn't launched this attack.

It is possible to interpret the "we are ready for talks" coming from Moscow as being a move towards negotiating this partition or new order
 
Is there a way for him to back down now without humiliatingly losing face ?
Get to keep a big chuck of Eastern Ukraine. Severely deplete their military capacity with and agreement not to rebuild it past a certain point. Get Ukraine and NATO to commit to Ukraine never joining???

All of which leaves it primed for another invasion in a few years.

Just my thoughts. I have no idea really.
 
Taking Putin's utterances at their word its possible to speculate that this "special operation" is not a war of occupation but a "demilitarising" mission - i.e. kick the shit out of the country for a bit, weaken its structures, resilience and military capacity.... so as that when a suitable to Putin outcome is achieved (say #2 partition mentioned above) there isn't an immediate fightback on the scale there would be if they hadn't launched this attack.

Seems they've done the opposite of weaken it's military capacity so far. They've poked it with a stick and now sophisitcated arms are flooding in from Europe.
 
Taking Putin's utterances at their word its possible to speculate that this "special operation" is not a war of occupation but a "demilitarising" mission - i.e. kick the shit out of the country for a bit, weaken its structures, resilience and military capacity.... so as that when a suitable to Putin outcome is achieved (say #2 partition mentioned above) there isn't an immediate fightback on the scale there would be if they hadn't launched this attack.
Given the (offers of) arms being poured into the country by NATO members etc, then the demilitarisation ambition might be a failure before it even starts, unless he can suitably degrade manpower and command structures which would take a bit longer to rebuild. If it reaches a bloody stalemate or partition situation there will be Patriot missile systems along the border in no time. It’ll be a proper militarised border, not just a trench in Donbass. I fail to see how anything other than total control of the place would offer the desired security, and even then there will be barrels pointing over the border. He’s fucked it really, unless his aim was a new iron curtain giving him the justification/power for Marshall law etc.

Basically it seems to make no sense outside of an impulsive act.
 
It angers me seeing the working class late teens used as expendable first wave cannon fodder by Putin, wondering what the fuck is going on. Aside from snappy social media posts displaying big shiny metallic testicles, on the Ukrainian side it's the elderly and frail, the physically disabled, the mentally ill or those with learning difficulties who have no wide informal networks of support, no loved ones or neighbours looking out for them, alone, trapped in their homes by tanks and snipers, scared shitless that a shell or missile is going to hit them.
Good to see you SB
 
Seems they've done the opposite of weaken it's military capacity so far. They've poked it with a stick and now sophisitcated arms are flooding in from Europe.

I know nothing about which side has what military hardware at their disposal, but I'd be surprised if the Russian army is about to be outgunned, despite the arrival of new weaponary.
 
Given the (offers of) arms being poured into the country by NATO members etc, then the demilitarisation ambition might be a failure before it even starts, unless he can suitably degrade manpower and command structures which would take a bit longer to rebuild. If it reaches a bloody stalemate or partition situation there will be Patriot missile systems along the border in no time. It’ll be a proper militarised border, not just a trench in Donbass. I fail to see how anything other than total control of the place would offer the desired security, and even then there will be barrels pointing over the border. He’s fucked it really, unless his aim was a new iron curtain giving him the justification/power for Marshall law etc.

Basically it seems to make no sense outside of an impulsive act.
Part of an agreement could be to destroy weapons and not rebuild the military though.
 
I know nothing about which side has what military hardware at their disposal, but I'd be surprised if the Russian army is about to be outgunned, despite the arrival of new weaponary.
Also new weapons are not that useful if you don't get to train with them.

I know part of good weapon design is making it simple to use but some training is still needed I assume.
 
They've poked it with a stick and now sophisitcated arms are flooding in from Europe.

Which is going to up the ante, which is probably necessary in order provide time and get Putin to resort to ever more destructive methods, which hopefully will lead to some kind of coup. But I think anyone who thinks that Ukraine will ultimately repel Russia through force of arms will be disappointed.
 
Which is going to up the ante, which is probably necessary in order provide time and get Putin to resort to ever more destructive methods, which hopefully will lead to some kind of coup. But I think anyone who think that Ukraine will repel Russia by force of arms will be disappointed.

I'm not sure many people expect that to happen. But thwarting a quick and tidy takeover will ensure Russia won't repeat the feat elsewhere and will hasten Putin's political demise.
 
Which is going to up the ante, which is probably necessary in order provide time and get Putin to resort to ever more destructive methods, which hopefully will lead to some kind of coup. But I think anyone who thinks that Ukraine will repel Russia through force of arms will be disappointed.
I don't think anyone belives Ukraine can win a military victory just that if they make it hard enough for Russia it creates a political problem for Putin which means either he goes or some kind of agreement is reached.
 
Change of subject.

I know a list of charities was posted up earlier in thread but has anyone got a clue where the best place to donate money is?

Also anywhere decent to donate money to support the anti-war movement in Russia? I think supporting them is one of the more useful things we can do. But I suspect a lot of the groups in involved are not really people I want to give money to.
 
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Interesting.

I could see quite a lot of experienced and foreign fighters (and possibly undercover special forces from around Europe) entering Ukraine. Certainly enough to be more than a token effort.
Special forces will already be there won't they? Not doing anything but there.
 
Putin will likely have to hold Ukraine down with a large force. This is the other part of the "successful invasion" equation. Ukraine is a big place and now has many acorns of hate planted all over the country. Russia can't afford to suddenly expand the size of its army by 300K and then go back to spending money on upgrading the military weapons and gear to keep up with the rest of the world, which they are not finished doing. I think Putin's long-term planning on this isn't known yet but it looks like he thought this would be easier.
 
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