discokermit
Well-Known Member
the west can't make shells fast enough and ukraine is running out of troops. the american money won't help that.
it may be ukraines weakest point up to now but it is only going to get worse.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
it may be ukraines weakest point up to now but it is only going to get worse.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
maybe he doesn't think they will be in a better position. it could be other forces at play making him take this view.
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Nonsense. Your boys are just about to get a seriously bloody nose. What the longer term effect of the assistance will be is yet to be seen but if you think that this aid package and the long range stuff that the UK has given them isn't an absolute short term game-changer, there's even less hope for you than I thought 10 minutes ago!
As I cycled to work yesterday I could hardly believe that some noble Lord or other was seriously suggesting that it would be a good idea to gather up the inflatables discarded by people smugglers and ship them abroad to help the Ukrainian war effort? He was supported in this by at least one other noble Lord who thought they would be useful to help the Ukrainians cross the Dniepro river? A third Lord said these craft must be safe because they crossed the Channel from France.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
While I think any time is a good time to at least sit at the table and knock some things about, it's important to remember that while Russia is more resilient to manpower and materiel shortages than Ukraine they are not immune to them. Remember that every independent observer has confirmed that while Russia is gaining land slowly, it comes at a cost of much higher losses than Ukraine sustains in the same battle. I've no doubt whatsoever that Russia can outlast Ukraine in the long run, but do they want to irreparably damage their security and military ability to do so? They've demonstrated they can ramp up artillery shell and drone production, but they haven't meaningfully managed to ramp up production of new tanks, new aircraft and new artillery barrels. The sanctions have thus far hurt too much there.
ska invita
back on the other side
if theres one thing that winds me up is war reduced to "boys" bloody noses" and "toys"
its industrial scale murder ffs, the ultimate human crime
discokermit
Well-Known Member
not my boys.
another game changer? how many game changers have there been now? yet still the game remains the same.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
discokermit
Well-Known Member
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
They're absolutely your boys. Not sure why you keep pretending otherwise.
Of course it's another game-changer. It's 60 billion quids worth of bombs and guns and shit. Again, why would you argue otherwise? The only reason your side have made the gains they have in recent months is because that aid was withheld.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
It is. Started by and perpetuated by Russia.
They could stop it all tomorrow by turning round and going home.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Can you be more specific about these other forces and what their aims are?
discokermit
Well-Known Member
there are lots of forces. the us, europe, the banderists, the army top brass, the army, the population, im sure you could probably think of some more if you put your mind to it.
as for their aims, i am not party to their decisions or thoughts. your guess would be as good as mine.
and i said "maybe" and "could be".
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Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.
Thanks to a batch of shells from North Korea, Russian forces in Ukraine are flush with artillery ammunition. What gunners don’t have in abundance are howitzer barrels.
www.forbes.com
It does seem counter intuitive that a big metal barrel is hard to make, but modern artillery needs very accurate machining equipment. Russia's existing factories are kitted out with Western gear. You can go back to 50 year old production, but then you have 50 year old accuracy. Accuracy is a lethality multiplier; it's not just more effective, it's several times more effective.
If they could produce enough new artillery barrels, they wouldn't waste their time ripping out barrels from obsolete pieces. Using 50 year old shells from NK will probably accelerate barrel wear, too. The Ukrainians have been seeing more use of shorter range (<155mm) systems as there seems to be a shortage of the longer ranged stuff.
Russia can still make modern artillery barrels. They just haven't shown they can increase how much they make, and the way they're firing guns it's a real concern for them in the middle-ish future. I'll again say that I think they can outlast Ukraine, but they may not like the state of their armed forces at the end of it. It's no good quelling Ukraine if they've nothing left to threaten Kazakhstan with.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
america is threatening china because of the amount of machine tools they are selling russia. you think china is selling them old machines?Russia Needs Fresh Artillery Barrels, Bad. It’s Yanking Them Off Old Guns By The Thousand.
Thanks to a batch of shells from North Korea, Russian forces in Ukraine are flush with artillery ammunition. What gunners don’t have in abundance are howitzer barrels.
It does seem counter intuitive that a big metal barrel is hard to make, but modern artillery needs very accurate machining equipment. Russia's existing factories are kitted out with Western gear. You can go back to 50 year old production, but then you have 50 year old accuracy. Accuracy is a lethality multiplier; it's not just more effective, it's several times more effective.
If they could produce enough new artillery barrels, they wouldn't waste their time ripping out barrels from obsolete pieces. Using 50 year old shells from NK will probably accelerate barrel wear, too. The Ukrainians have been seeing more use of shorter range (<155mm) systems as there seems to be a shortage of the longer ranged stuff.
Russia can still make modern artillery barrels. They just haven't shown they can increase how much they make, and the way they're firing guns it's a real concern for them in the middle-ish future. I'll again say that I think they can outlast Ukraine, but they may not like the state of their armed forces at the end of it. It's no good quelling Ukraine if they've nothing left to threaten Kazakhstan with.
everyone thought they were going to run out of missiles two years ago but that hasn't happened yet.
and that article says they "might" run out in two years time.
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Chz
Stark Raving Sane
China wants Russia under its thumb. You think they sell them their best kit? For decades, Russia sold China their second best stuff and now that China is ahead they're willing to help out an old buddy? The Americans want China to sell them nothing at all, of course. But I've not seen any reports of fretting over Russia getting any top of the line machine tools.
The Chinese government knows when and where to turn the screws to get their way. And they're not going to give a potentially unstable (post Putin) neighbour the facility to be a massive pain in the arse to them. They've been very careful riding both sides of the conflict to their advantage. Probably the country best suited to come out of this with the greatest advancement.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
do you think? what happened the last time the russians gave up in the middle of a war? i'm not persuaded you've given this your usual acute attention.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
Spymaster
Plastic Paddy
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I'm not talking about a reborn ussr but the potential for a sanguinary civil war
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
The Ukrainians had all the ammo in the world (6,000 rds/day) during their counter-"offensive" and achieved nothing with it.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
discokermit
Well-Known Member
to be fair, they held off a world superpower for the best part of two years. that's hardly nothing.
even if russia is the sick man of world superpowers at the moment.
that's my guess.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
did anyone expect Ukraine to hold out for 2 years against Russia which has more troops to pull from and a military budget that eclipsed Ukraine at the start of the war
still fighting after 2 years is an achievement within itself
second part the last 2 years has made it quite clear russian is not the dominant military force it was pretending to be on the world stage
still fighting after 2 years is an achievement within itself
second part the last 2 years has made it quite clear russian is not the dominant military force it was pretending to be on the world stage
discokermit
Well-Known Member
people expected them to win against a poorly armed and equipped russian army who had bad leadership and associated structures and were totally corrupt. their equipment was all faulty due to the careless attitude and corruption of the people making it. remember all the tractor memes?
they also expected regime change in russia. my dad had a bet with me that putin would be gone by christmas in '22. putin made it but my dad didn't.
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