Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[hash tag]

What benefits would justify this?

Putin's ego.

 

[Ax^]

Well, no, they've tried that. The russian puppet was deposed ... as putin couldn't fix that particular election in favour of his preferred candidate.

oh do a Russia puppet with a strong enough security force to control the population

police state bright future for a population under the russian yoke

 

[tim]

The interweb is not the best place to deploy the lowest form of wit

Worse than Hitler, who was not noted for his waspish comments.

 

[editor]

They already had a Russophile regime once, and the Ukrainian public got sick of them and voted someone else in.

Damn democracy.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Well, no, they've tried that. The russian puppet was deposed ... as putin couldn't fix that particular election in favour of his preferred candidate.

2 years of murdering and raping and looting, plus kidnapping children will surely have convinced the Ukrainians that Russia has their best interests at heart and they must be ready to come over any minute now, no?

 

[Dogsauce]

Cameron was attempting to shape the narrative today. Emphasising that is was justified for Ukrainians to attack Russian based targets with NATO weapons.

Him and Macron are some pair.

Why on earth would it not be? Russia is pulverising Kharkiv with missiles fired from over the border 50km away. Those launchers are fair game. They’re hitting them with North Korean ballistic missiles too.

 

[Pickman's model]

Why on earth would it not be? Russia is pulverising Kharkiv with missiles fired from over the border 50km away. Those launchers are fair game. They’re hitting them with North Korean ballistic missiles too.

If the Ukrainians listen to Cameron they'll come to regret it

 

[Ax^]

Damn democracy.

make perfect sense if you think about it Germany voted for the nationalist socialist party

just like the nazis in ukraine

 

[gosub]

Worse than Hitler, who was not noted for his waspish comments.

He would; most definitely, have done shouty tweets

 

[Chz]

If the Ukrainians listen to Cameron they'll come to regret it

The same Ukrainians that have already been blowing up oil refineries in Russia? They've been attacking things over the border for quite some time, this is just tacit permission to use anything given them by the UK to do so.

Edit: That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if they just stuck to US policy on all Western weapons for the time being to keep their biggest and most important donor sweet.

 

[StoneRoad]

The same Ukrainians that have already been blowing up oil refineries in Russia? They've been attacking things over the border for quite some time, this is just tacit permission to use anything given them by the UK to do so.

Edit: That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if they just stuck to US policy on all Western weapons for the time being to keep their biggest and most important donor sweet.

I think I'm right in asserting that the Ukrainians have used home-grown drones for almost all of their attacks on military targets over the russian border.

 

[Chz]

I think I'm right in asserting that the Ukrainians have used home-grown drones for almost all of their attacks on military targets over the russian border.

Absolutely, but what difference is it going to make to the Russians if they use the few dozen Storm Shadows they have left to do the same? They already regard Crimea as Russia proper and they've already bsen used there. It's not like the UK has supplied much in the way of arms that can strike deep into Russia, so I just dispute the notion that Ukraine would somehow have cause for regret in doing so.

 

[TopCat]

a Russia puppet you mean

Someone not calling for NATO membership and the breakup of Russia would probably suffice.

Anyway it was reported this morning that a senior Ukrainian intelligence official said that negotiations will have to be entered into to end the war.

 

[TopCat]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-may-have-talks-eventually-with-russia-intelligence-officer-says-2024-05-03/#:~:text=But%20Major%2DGeneral%20Vadym%20Skibitsky,the%20case%20with%20any%20war.

 

[TopCat]

Negotiations now would likely save lives.

 

[TopCat]

‘I love my country, but I can’t kill’: Ukrainian men evading conscription

As the war stretches on indefinitely, there are few eager recruits and Kyiv’s armed forces are short of soldiers

www.theguardian.com

 

[TopCat]

Ukraine corruption: Ruling party MP charged with embezzlement

Prosecutors allege the politician bought assets worth far more than his official income could cover.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Pickman's model]

The same Ukrainians that have already been blowing up oil refineries in Russia? They've been attacking things over the border for quite some time, this is just tacit permission to use anything given them by the UK to do so.

Edit: That being said, I wouldn't be surprised if they just stuck to US policy on all Western weapons for the time being to keep their biggest and most important donor sweet.

You don't think they'll regret listening to Cameron. Strange, given the way so many other people who have now do. Have you heard of eg Libya?

 

[Pickman's model]

I think I'm right in asserting that the Ukrainians have used home-grown drones for almost all of their attacks on military targets over the russian border

And for their attacks on civilian targets?

 

[kabbes]

Negotiations now would likely save lives.

Alternatively, negotiations now would likely cost lives.

 

[Spymaster]

Ukraine corruption: Ruling party MP charged with embezzlement

Prosecutors allege the politician bought assets worth far more than his official income could cover.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Country has a bent MP"

Stop the press!

 

[tim]

Alternatively, negotiations now would likely cost lives.

Negotiations will almost certainly be happening now at a covert and deniable level.

 

[Pickman's model]

Alternatively, negotiations now would likely cost lives.

On the basis that...

 

[Spandex]

Negotiations now would likely save lives.

Zelensky is as likely to negotiate right now as Putin is to order all the Russian forces back to Russia.

They're in the middle of the period between the US agreeing that £60bn military package and the weapons turning up in Ukraine, a point when Ukrainian forces are running out of ammo and Russian forces are having a big push before the new ammo and weapons turn up.

The outcome of negotiations is in large part down to the relative strength of the parties negotiating. Zelensky isn't going to pick the worst position Ukraine has been in since Feb 22 to negotiate when he thinks he'll be in a stronger position in the coming months.

Negotiations will almost certainly be happening now at a covert and deniable level.

There's been plenty of international peace conferences on Ukraine happening quite overtly: Copenhagen in June 23, Jeddah in August 23, Malta in October 23 and Davos in January 24. The next one is Switzerland in June. No doubt talks have been going on in between.

The problem is that the Russian and Ukrainian starting positions are so far apart. As I understand it Zelensky, somewhat unrealistically considering the facts on the ground, wants Russian forces to pull back to the 2014 borders as a starting point. Putin wants Ukraine to accept the loss of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhia and Crimea, agree not to join NATO and limit the size of its military.

When people say there should be negotiations what they usually mean is Zelensky should shift his position and accept the loss of territory, which he'll probably have to at some point as its unlikely Ukraine is getting all its territory back.

 

[ska invita]

The problem is that the Russian and Ukrainian starting positions are so far apart.

they're not the only states involved here

 

[tim]

.

The problem is that the Russian and Ukrainian starting positions are so far apart. As I understand it Zelensky, somewhat unrealistically considering the facts on the ground, wants Russian forces to pull back to the 2014 borders as a starting point. Putin wants Ukraine to accept the loss of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhia and Crimea, agree not to join NATO and limit the size of its military.

When people say there should be negotiations what they usually mean is Zelensky should shift his position and accept the loss of territory, which he'll probably have to at some point as its unlikely Ukraine is getting all its territory back.

What Zelensky and others in the Ukrainian regime; and Putin and other Russian regime members may state publicly and desire, is different from from the compromises that they know they have to accept.

 

[The39thStep]

Zelensky is as likely to negotiate right now as Putin is to order all the Russian forces back to Russia.

They're in the middle of the period between the US agreeing that £60bn military package and the weapons turning up in Ukraine, a point when Ukrainian forces are running out of ammo and Russian forces are having a big push before the new ammo and weapons turn up.

The outcome of negotiations is in large part down to the relative strength of the parties negotiating. Zelensky isn't going to pick the worst position Ukraine has been in since Feb 22 to negotiate when he thinks he'll be in a stronger position in the coming months.


There's been plenty of international peace conferences on Ukraine happening quite overtly: Copenhagen in June 23, Jeddah in August 23, Malta in October 23 and Davos in January 24. The next one is Switzerland in June. No doubt talks have been going on in between.

The problem is that the Russian and Ukrainian starting positions are so far apart. As I understand it Zelensky, somewhat unrealistically considering the facts on the ground, wants Russian forces to pull back to the 2014 borders as a starting point. Putin wants Ukraine to accept the loss of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhia and Crimea, agree not to join NATO and limit the size of its military.

When people say there should be negotiations what they usually mean is Zelensky should shift his position and accept the loss of territory, which he'll probably have to at some point as its unlikely Ukraine is getting all its territory back.

True , however, these conferences are based on Ukraine's ten-point plan from 2022 and are more likely to attempt to engage the non aligned states to support them than any actual attempt at a settlement. As for peace proposals then there are loads that other countries have submitted or floated including China, South Africa and Turkey.

 

[TopCat]

The outcome of negotiations is in large part down to the relative strength of the parties negotiating. Zelensky isn't going to pick the worst position Ukraine has been in since Feb 22 to negotiate when he thinks he'll be in a stronger position in the coming months.

When people say there should be negotiations what they usually mean is Zelensky should shift his position and accept the loss of territory, which he'll probably have to at some point as its unlikely Ukraine is getting all its territory back.

Why would Zelensky think they will be in a better position in the coming months?

Further, if you accept negotiations will have to take place at some point, why not now? The situation is dire.

 

[Spandex]

Why would Zelensky think they will be in a better position in the coming months?

Because that $60bn of US military assistance will have arrived.

Further, if you accept negotiations will have to take place at some point, why not now? The situation is dire.

The situation is dire because Ukraine is running out of ammo. The situation is likely to be less dire when they're not. If someone is going to negotiate, they're not going to pick their weakest point to do it.

 

[Duncan2]

Because that $60bn of US military assistance will have arrived.


The situation is dire because Ukraine is running out of ammo. The situation is likely to be less dire when they're not. If someone is going to negotiate, they're not going to pick their weakest point to do it.

In terms of airpower I am sure it was reported yesterday that full deployment of F16s to Ukraine given the infrastructure that is not there and the necessary upskilling of pilots was likely to take a year .