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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

I'm a pro Ukrainian poster in that I'd ideally like to see Russia pushed fully out of Ukraine. I would not be happy with the prospect of Ukrainians getting extradited from the UK. I think I am in favour of professional, paid troops from European nations going to assist in Ukraine, such that they have a realistic chance of "defeating" the Russian invasion. In fact I think it probably should already have happened. I'm not certain about all of this but it looks like the least bad of various very bad options.
No it doesn't
 
this BBC story has the same statistics.

Neither story has any suggestion that Ukraine will be asking EU states or anyone else to extradite Ukrainian nationals liable for conscription though, so I think you might be getting a bit ahead of yourself there...
I agree there has been no mention. I wasn’t suggesting otherwise. It also makes sense the distinguishing between military and criminal law and the exemption in European arrest warrants.

That being the case the removal of consular services to Ukraine men abroad is not a big stick.
 
Though the current visa exemption in the UK will run out in the next few years and that might be a problem for those affected.
Edited to add: it’s a three year exemption with a possibility of an eighteen month extension. Not sure if the extension has to be signed off by the Ukrainian consular services.
 
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a good option if you want the war to spread across europe
this would make a nice new frontline once Polish troops go in

View attachment 421473

and anyone thinking IT WILL BE FINE and wants to take the risk is fucking insane and/or safely in an armchair a long way away from the fighting

interesting map so Estonia Latvia and Lithuania are just parts of Russia now :hmm:

give the fella the Rhineland eh
 
a good option if you want the war to spread across europe
this would make a nice new frontline once Polish troops go in

View attachment 421473

and anyone thinking IT WILL BE FINE and wants to take the risk is fucking insane and/or safely in an armchair a long way away from the fighting
Lukashenko already talked about doing it...reckoned it would be easy....is actually further than Russia has managed to annex post 2018
 
Though the current visa exemption in the UK will run out in the next few years and that might be a problem for those affected.
Edited to add: it’s a three year exemption with a possibility of an eighteen month extension. Not sure if the extension has to be signed off by the Ukrainian consular services.
If they'd gone to Portugal they could work a raspberry passport in 3 years


Is going to be a headache for the UK, can't deny that
 
hmm who is on this thread asking for the break up of Russia :hmm:
It's a cornerstone of Putinism that the whole reason America started the war in Ukraine is to precipitate the breakup of Russia. According to Nikolai Patrushev (chair of the Russian Security Council) this is because North America will become uninhabitable in the coming decades due a volcanic eruption (a known scientific fact that the Americans are suppressing) and so they want Siberia as a place to resettle in.
 
Anyone who's been keeping up with the situation in Kaliningrad - and the Finnish border - will be aware that both of those areas have been almost completely stripped of Russian forces, and have been for two years....

There's no doubt that Russia has an armoured force capable of punching from Belarus to Kaliningrad (the Suwalki gap, effectively a 60km line along the Polish-Lithuanian border) but whether it has the force to sustain that land bridge in the face of the Polish Army and Air Force is a very different question. There's also a German-lead NATO battle group in Lithuania, which spends a lot of its time in the area of the Suwalki gap.

So there are two questions - does Old Vlad fancy going to war with NATO, on NATO territory, and does Lukashenko want to go to war with NATO, on NATO territory, and to what degree would he allow Belarus forces to be co opted into this Russian attack? Vlad I think is probably keener than Lukashenko, and I don't think Lukashenko is very keen at all...

They can avoid the Suwalki gap and problems with Belarus and go from Russia proper, but it means going through both Latvia and Lithuania. Both have significant NATO forces there - and this is the beauty of the Forward Presence - it's not about the combat capability of eFP that Russia would face, it's that any conflict with that force inevitably means killing Americans, and French, and Finns, and Swedes, and Germans, and Brits, and would bring a response that the Russian force trying to maintain it's position would find difficult to deal with.

Russia absolutely does not have the forces required to fight a Polish armoured division and it's air force in Ukraine, and fight even a limited conflict with NATO (even a US-less NATO) in and around the Baltic states - of course, whether Old Vlad knows that is a different question...
 
It's a cornerstone of Putinism that the whole reason America started the war in Ukraine is to precipitate the breakup of Russia. According to Nikolai Patrushev (chair of the Russian Security Council) this is because North America will become uninhabitable in the coming decades due a volcanic eruption (a known scientific fact that the Americans are suppressing) and so they want Siberia as a place to resettle in.

Oh well when you put it like that I’m switching to Team Putin.

Where do I sign?
 
I'm a pro Ukrainian poster in that I'd ideally like to see Russia pushed fully out of Ukraine. I would not be happy with the prospect of Ukrainians getting extradited from the UK. I think I am in favour of professional, paid troops from European nations going to assist in Ukraine, such that they have a realistic chance of "defeating" the Russian invasion. In fact I think it probably should already have happened. I'm not certain about all of this but it looks like the least bad of various very bad options.
and what happens when these troops get beaten?
 
It's a cornerstone of Putinism that the whole reason America started the war in Ukraine is to precipitate the breakup of Russia. According to Nikolai Patrushev (chair of the Russian Security Council) this is because North America will become uninhabitable in the coming decades due a volcanic eruption (a known scientific fact that the Americans are suppressing) and so they want Siberia as a place to resettle in.
Yellowstone
Anyone who's been keeping up with the situation in Kaliningrad - and the Finnish border - will be aware that both of those areas have been almost completely stripped of Russian forces, and have been for two years....

There's no doubt that Russia has an armoured force capable of punching from Belarus to Kaliningrad (the Suwalki gap, effectively a 60km line along the Polish-Lithuanian border) but whether it has the force to sustain that land bridge in the face of the Polish Army and Air Force is a very different question. There's also a German-lead NATO battle group in Lithuania, which spends a lot of its time in the area of the Suwalki gap.

So there are two questions - does Old Vlad fancy going to war with NATO, on NATO territory, and does Lukashenko want to go to war with NATO, on NATO territory, and to what degree would he allow Belarus forces to be co opted into this Russian attack? Vlad I think is probably keener than Lukashenko, and I don't think Lukashenko is very keen at all...

They can avoid the Suwalki gap and problems with Belarus and go from Russia proper, but it means going through both Latvia and Lithuania. Both have significant NATO forces there - and this is the beauty of the Forward Presence - it's not about the combat capability of eFP that Russia would face, it's that any conflict with that force inevitably means killing Americans, and French, and Finns, and Swedes, and Germans, and Brits, and would bring a response that the Russian force trying to maintain it's position would find difficult to deal with.

Russia absolutely does not have the forces required to fight a Polish armoured division and it's air force in Ukraine, and fight even a limited conflict with NATO (even a US-less NATO) in and around the Baltic states - of course, whether Old Vlad knows that is a different question...
 
theres lots of reasons but ive got a glass of guiness and a packet of pork crunch on the go so i cant be arsed.
but whatever the ins and outs, what would happen if they did prevail?
 
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