Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Raheem
Well-Known Member
I think you may be doing some wishful hearing.
At best Ukrainian forces will indeed be able to break through the Russian lines. But it doesn't follow like night follows day. Of course it doesn't.
Whatever you may have been told, they are not continuing to fight on the basis that eventual defeat is inevitable. They do not believe they are losing, because they are not. No-one is winning or losing until one side is collapsing.
Last edited:
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Not quite - if Russias advance stalls (in broad terms), and they take significantly greater losses, they may decide to 'take the win' and negotiate with what they've got rather than risk losing what they've got, that would fit well within 'its better than it could be..' for Ukraine.
It's also quite possible/probable that there will be some things in the package which will make the Russian hold on Crimea much more precarious/difficult - and it's very clear that the Russian/Putin attachment to Crimea is far greater than their attachment to other bits of Ukraine, so Ukraine, in any negotiation, might 'offer up' Crimea in return for Russian withdrawal from X or Y other areas.
It also gives time for the European programmes to deliver - the donated F-16's should be online by the Autumn, the EU should have it's one million rounds of Artillery ammunition ready by then, and the Czech-lead programme to find and buy another one million rounds of Artillery ammunition will also be coming online during the summer.
It gives them space, and time.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
The thing about collapse is it's often impossible to see it coming from the outside until it occurs, because admitting it's going to is essentially the same as making it. In this case we actually do know something about the factors likely to prompt a Ukrainian one, because we know the conditions required for them to keep fighting (support from the US and EU), and the US funding very likely means it'll be able to hold the line for a while to come.
By contrast we really don't know what the conditions are for Russian failure - the state of Army morale, how far the economy can continue to stretch before it falls into disarray, what support Putin really has etc - so whether this is slowing the inevitable, precipitating a sudden desire for compromise or (outside option to my mind, but I'm as clueless as anybody) a killer blow is opaque until it plays out.
By contrast we really don't know what the conditions are for Russian failure - the state of Army morale, how far the economy can continue to stretch before it falls into disarray, what support Putin really has etc - so whether this is slowing the inevitable, precipitating a sudden desire for compromise or (outside option to my mind, but I'm as clueless as anybody) a killer blow is opaque until it plays out.
editor
hiraethified
I imagine that the news of this huge amount of funding heading into Ukraine won't exactly be morale boosting for the Russian military.
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
Russell Bentley. Recently went missing in Donetsk, reportedly mistaken for a western spy and tortured before being killed.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I don't think you understand American politics, where Congress plays an important role too. And what's happened recently is that the presidential election goes one way and at least one of the houses of Congress the other. The Senate's broadly 50/50 so any really tricky things like overcoming a presidential veto is unlikely to happen. So if trump wins even if the representatives and senate are denocrat and vote something through on the narrowest of margins then it'll likely die.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I note the package for military aid to Ukraine and Israel includes a ban on direct funding for unrwa until March next year. Surprised this hasn't been mentioned by cheerleaders of this legislation.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
They know, they just think any mention is naysaying at best and putinism at worst.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Useful idiots for netanyahu
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
How do you know they were 'mistaken'?
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
'reportedly'
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Some recent polling in Europe from earlier this year in January. The 'what I think will happen ' versus 'what I'd like to happen' is an interesting issue. Might have some meaning on here ?
With regards to the “what will this latest aid package achieve?” question:
If somebody can tell me precisely what the conditions are under which Russia will decide it’s had enough and either negotiate in good faith or withdraw, then I can tell you precisely what I think the aid will achieve.
If your answer is “I don’t know what those conditions are” then you’re in the same boat as me — neither of us know what providing the aid will do. It might be that it does nothing but extend the quagmire another 12 months. Or it might create those conditions under which Russia decides it’s done. We have no way of knowing. But we do know exactly what withdrawing the aid will do — cause a Ukrainian collapse. So I’d rather support the people being aggressively invaded by fascists in the hope that it’s enough.
If your answer is, “there are no conditions under which Russia will withdraw; they’ll continue to grind on, come what may, until their inevitable victory,” then well done, you’ve swallowed the Russian propaganda hook, line and sinker (or you’re actively agitating on behalf of that propaganda).
If somebody can tell me precisely what the conditions are under which Russia will decide it’s had enough and either negotiate in good faith or withdraw, then I can tell you precisely what I think the aid will achieve.
If your answer is “I don’t know what those conditions are” then you’re in the same boat as me — neither of us know what providing the aid will do. It might be that it does nothing but extend the quagmire another 12 months. Or it might create those conditions under which Russia decides it’s done. We have no way of knowing. But we do know exactly what withdrawing the aid will do — cause a Ukrainian collapse. So I’d rather support the people being aggressively invaded by fascists in the hope that it’s enough.
If your answer is, “there are no conditions under which Russia will withdraw; they’ll continue to grind on, come what may, until their inevitable victory,” then well done, you’ve swallowed the Russian propaganda hook, line and sinker (or you’re actively agitating on behalf of that propaganda).
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Isn't the ban on UNRWA funding from March though, related to the main government funding package?
Government funding deal includes ban on U.S. aid to UNRWA, a key relief agency in Gaza, until 2025, sources say
The funding deal reached between Congress and the White House will include a ban on direct U.S. funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees until March 2025, sources say.
www.cbsnews.com
Like I'm sure there's loads of reprehensible stuff in the Ukraine-specific one, it's a US appropriation bill and adding side orders of horrible bullshit is what they do, but UNRWA doesn't seem to be mentioned on the 48-page Ukraine funding list, or any UN body afaict:
Last edited:
Raheem
Well-Known Member
A lot of people also seem disappointed with the new Taylor Swift album. It's understandable to have mixed feelings about America.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Possibly Pickman's can clear up where this was from? And then he and TopCat can try and remember that making an assertion which clearly wasn't common knowledge then immediately using it to accuse people of deliberate bad faith through silence is not the sort of behaviour they would appreciate from others?
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
I note the package for military aid to Ukraine and Israel includes a ban on Tiktok in the US if ByteDance don't sell it in a year. Surprised this hasn't been mentioned by cheerleaders of this legislation.
It's almost as if this package contains all kinds of things unrelated to Ukraine.
It's almost as if this package contains all kinds of things unrelated to Ukraine.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Has there been an appropriate thread where the funding cuts to UNRWA made as part of the overall US budget has been discussed, where many of the posters on here have in fact been quite critical of the US response on Gaza, I wonder?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Bad news for IDF Tiktok dancers with a US audience ?
teqniq
DisMembered
I see you've quoted my post. For my part, it's perfectly possible to be scathingly critical of the US support of Israel whilst also being disgusted by the actions of Russia in Ukraine. I dislike imperialism no matter who is perpetrating it.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Stapling a bunch of unrelated crap to a bill is a symptom of US government disfunction. These days it's the only way to get bills passed when the same party doesn't hold all three branches.
Yossarian
⏭️
Unusually, the opposite happened in this case - the legislation was split into four separate bills, TikTok, Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel, letting Republicans opposed to Ukraine aid vote against it while still voting for the Israel package and Democrats opposed to the Israel aid vote for aid to Ukraine.
The Republicans originally insisted on attaching legislation on the US-Mexico border to the Ukraine package - months later, after negotiators from both parties came up with a bill that gave Republicans almost everything they wanted, the bill died in the House because Donald Trump told Republicans not to vote for it.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
This'll learn me to trust the guardianIsn't the ban on UNRWA funding from March though, related to the main government funding package?
Government funding deal includes ban on U.S. aid to UNRWA, a key relief agency in Gaza, until 2025, sources say
The funding deal reached between Congress and the White House will include a ban on direct U.S. funding for the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees until March 2025, sources say.
Like I'm sure there's loads of reprehensible stuff in the Ukraine-specific one, it's a US appropriation bill and adding side orders of horrible bullshit is what they do, but UNRWA doesn't seem to be mentioned on the 48-page Ukraine funding list, or any UN body afaict:
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Page 17 of the Israel bill, so in the large bill before the house before it was taken in parts
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Similar threads
