Raheem
Well-Known Member
There would be no reason or sense in Ukraine ever threatening Russia militarily in any way or to any extent, had Russia not started trying to take it over.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
andysays
Love and solidarity
I don't have a fully worked out plan, but there have been peace keeping forces employed in various situations in the past, often under the flag of the UN, admittedly with mixed success.
I agree with those who say it would be ridiculous for Russia to be a guarantor, but equally I can't see the US or other NATO countries being directly involved. Presumably they would need to find neutral countries which could be agreed by both sides, and off the top of my head I don't have specific suggestions.
I'm not saying such an agreement would be easy to achieve, and actually implementing it would be difficult.
But to simply dismiss the idea as impossible and not workable because Putin can't be trusted doesn't seem a tenable position either, unless the dismissers are prepared to recognise that by doing so they are accepting the ongoing war with no end in sight.
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
Are there any neutral countries that could do anything about Russia if they wanted to fuck round? Maybe we could ask the Chinese?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
What do you mean by 'peacekeeping'?
Do you mean an agreed military force controlling a buffer zone between the two parties, a fully independent Ukraine on one side, and Russian occupied Ukraine in the other?
Do you mean a proxy occupation force that militarily controls the bit of Ukraine that Russia isn't occupying, that theoretically defends that bit of Ukraine but also enforced it's military neutrality/disarmament?
Can you name two countries that that would be acceptable to Russia, and be trusted enough by Ukraine to not stand aside should the Russians go for invasion 3.0, and who have the military strength to physically repel such a Russian incursion?
Just two? out of 200.
What does Ukraine get out of this 'peace' you speak of? What proportion of its population under Russian control is acceptable to you?
What number of Ukrainian children being transported to Russia, never to be seen again, is better than a war on your TV screens?
Genuine question, what do you think that life for ordinary Ukrainians under 'agreed' Russian control is going to be like for the next 30 years?
Do you mean an agreed military force controlling a buffer zone between the two parties, a fully independent Ukraine on one side, and Russian occupied Ukraine in the other?
Do you mean a proxy occupation force that militarily controls the bit of Ukraine that Russia isn't occupying, that theoretically defends that bit of Ukraine but also enforced it's military neutrality/disarmament?
Can you name two countries that that would be acceptable to Russia, and be trusted enough by Ukraine to not stand aside should the Russians go for invasion 3.0, and who have the military strength to physically repel such a Russian incursion?
Just two? out of 200.
What does Ukraine get out of this 'peace' you speak of? What proportion of its population under Russian control is acceptable to you?
What number of Ukrainian children being transported to Russia, never to be seen again, is better than a war on your TV screens?
Genuine question, what do you think that life for ordinary Ukrainians under 'agreed' Russian control is going to be like for the next 30 years?
andysays
Love and solidarity
As I said above, I don't have a fully drawn up plan.
But an occupied buffer zone is one possible option, I would have thought.
The participating countries don't have to be literally capable of standing up to Russia all by themselves, the idea is that they are there on behalf of the UN which is the overall guarantor.
What Ukraine gets is an end to the current slaughter, and a return to some semblance of normal life., at least in the part of the country which isn't occupied by Russia.
The question about how much of the country being occupied is acceptable to me isn't relevant - I'm not in any position to dictate terms to Ukraine, neither am I seeking to do so.
If the Ukrainian government thinks they can continue to fight and eventually win, nothing I or anyone else says on this thread is going to stop them. In the end it's for them to decide whether any potential peace deal is worthwhile.
But at the risk of repeating myself, it is just as nonsensical for posters here to reject outright the idea of some sort of negotiated peace agreement as it would be for other posters to insist that Ukraine must agree to such a thing.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Having the UN as a guarantor is meaningless if one of the belligerent parties is a permanent UNSC member.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
... but the Russian government didn't take parts of it over until it saw Ukraine as a threat.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Not a military threat however. That would be an absurd thing to believe.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
Not an immediate one no, but for the current Russian government (if not the wider country so much) a very real threat nonetheless.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
C'mon, don't be a dupe.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Counterpoint: Putin/Russian nationalists see Novorossiya & Crimea as intrinsic parts of Russia that were at risk of irrevocably slipping away, so decided to act. The whole 'we're scared' is a fairytale to justify their actions.
Speaking of which, isn’t it time to invade and reclaim Brittany under the pretext that the EU has expanded right up to our border?
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
The whole of Ukraine is seen as an intrinsic part of the Russian empire. There was no threat. It's an imperialistic land grab with the convenient excuse of 'Nato creep' and 'ooh those Ukrainians are getting a bit democratic on our doorstep'.
Laughingly Putin did think he'd walk in. Hence the Kiev stuck in the mud fiasco. I still have no idea why he thought this. Everything I'd read before said Ukraine would fight. Guerilla warfare in Kiev for years. But Putin thought he knew different.
Granted, he's winning now...
Laughingly Putin did think he'd walk in. Hence the Kiev stuck in the mud fiasco. I still have no idea why he thought this. Everything I'd read before said Ukraine would fight. Guerilla warfare in Kiev for years. But Putin thought he knew different.
Granted, he's winning now...
mojo pixy
...שלא נמצא בשמאל
I note you avoided the more provocative Ireland - and for certain there are ultra unionists in the UK who'd definitely be in favour of the UK annexing (they'd say 'reclaiming' obviously) Ireland - the only land border we have with the EU after all.
But yeah, I imagine the mind of someone who actually thought that would be a good idea.
Then I imagine it in Russian.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
For being intrinsic parts of Russia they were ok with them being parts of Ukraine up to 2014. Also, is it really a fairytale given that Putin especially has repeatedly said how concerned he and the Russian government are by eastwards expansion (of NATO or the EU)? I am not saying this presents a military threat to Russia, or that his statements are not full of self-interest but he has repeatedly made them both before and after 2014.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think it's a nuanced delusion based on prejudice.
The 'Ukraine is part of Russia//Russia's sphere' thing is, imv - informed by my prolonged contact with Ukrainians, Poles, Estonians etc..- as well as just reading Russian political histories, that it is utterly ingrained within Russian society. It's an overwhelming majority view, across class, geography, and politics.
The nuanced bit is the way they see Ukrainians within that construct - and it goes in a spectrum from 'us', to 'brothers', through 'friends' to 'less than Great Russians, and belonging to us'. Putin, imo, is at the latter end. And I think it's illustrative how quickly and seemlessly the talking heads were able to go from 'we're rescuing our brothers from this bunch of Nazis' on day one of the invasion, to 'they are subhuman scum who need to exterminated' in the space of a fortnight.
I think he's also incredibly dismissive/prejudiced against Zelensky and the political class in Ukraine - that he's the experienced statesman, the student of history, the spymaster - and they are a bunch of drug addled thieves. To what degree that is based on his prejudice against Ukrainians in general, or because they are a class that he believes shouldn't exist, I don't know - probably a mix of both...
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
They were fine with Ukraine playing at being an independent country as long as everyone knew they were Russian really. But once Ukrainians got ideas about going off to join the EU and NATO they weren't fine with it at all.
Putin might have been grumpy about former Warsaw Pact countries clamouring to join NATO, but scared? Total fairytale.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Russia's designs on Ukraine go back a lot further than 2014. The Yushchenko poisoning was 2004, and we're already a few chapters in by then. What arrived in 2014 was clarity that a bloodless takeover was a failed idea.
Last edited:
Except no one is rejecting out of hand a negotiated settlement. Just critiquing the one that keeps resurfacing. You have no answers, neither do I. Let’s not pretend the deal from 2022 was anything other than a death warrant for Ukrainian independence.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
Lol, the repercussions would see the invaders done for.
mojo pixy
...שלא נמצא בשמאל
And anyway the whole idea is absurd and offensive in the first place. West to east and north to south, wherever really.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
Aye, it's absurd and offensive that Ireland was aggressively colonized in the first place.
mojo pixy
...שלא נמצא בשמאל
Even at my age I'm astounded and horrified that humans despite all the barbarity and cruelty we've dished out to each other, one group to another, throughout history (indeed that more or less is history), all that we know about the misery and harm it causes, we still just don't care, are still keen to do it again and again and again. It bothers the shit out out of me that this is still where we are as a species. Still doing this, still finding pretexts for it.
I end up feeling like an angry, confused child when I think about it too long.
I end up feeling like an angry, confused child when I think about it too long.
krtek a houby
Merry Xmas!
It's easier to fight, dispute, make money out of war and crush our fellow humans. Thinking and acting in the long term for the good of the planet, the good of humanity takes too much effort. Imagine a world where peoples and nations came together and worked to make a difference.
Unfortunately, there's no Gene Roddenberry like paradigm shift coming anytime soon.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I'm not referring to the 2022 proposal, which I agree is a non starter.
I'm responding to repeated posts from editor saying any negotiatiation is impossible because Putin can't be trusted.
So yes, there are some posters rejecting negotiations out of hand, unless they'd like to clarify what they mean.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think that because of the nature of Russia's war aims and the political doctrine behind them, a negotiated settlement is difficult/impossible.
Russia's war aim is the political/military domination of Ukraine in order to ensure it remains a controlled buffer state akin to Belarus and the Central Asian states within CIS.
It is not specifically about Ukraine joining NATO or the EU, it's about Ukraine joining anyone who isn't Russia - the reaction would (kind of) the same if Ukraine had decided that it's future lay in MERCOSUR. It's about Ukraine 'leaving' Russia, not who they hook up with afterwards.
It's about control, and you either do control, or you don't - and aside from the principle of an independent, democratic state having the right to determine and pursue it's own choices about it's policies, the method of Russian control/domination is a factor here: it's not about 'bought' politicians, it's about a gulag state, something Ukraine has a great deal of extremely unpleasant experience of at Russian hands.
This leads to the other problem - what is 'peace' within this negotiated settlement? For you, and people in the west, peace means security, but for Ukraine (and the other former Soviet/satellite states) peace within a Russian sphere means a gulag state, which isn't the same win that you think peace is.
The 'trust' thing that you are dismissive about is important because Russia's fundamental demand is that Ukraine not be protected by anyone else - Ukraine already has experience of being a neutral, broadly demilitarised state without protection from others and all that it got them was being invaded by Russia. you can hardly expect them to try the same thing again but expecting a different result...
Russia's objective, and strategy is clear: fence Ukraine off from the rest of Europe to prevent it getting assistance and demilitarise it through treaty, then simply walk in at a later point.
andysays
Love and solidarity
That's a far more considered and meaningful post than some of the nonsense I've been responding to, so thank you.
I agree with your take on Russia's war aims, they're not going to simply decide to pack up and return to the pre-invasion border.
I still think that at some point, this war will have to end, and given that Ukraine are unlikely to win, in the sense of removing the invaded Russian forces from all the area they've invaded, they will eventually have to come to a negotiated settlement, which will need international guarantors to prevent Russia from walking in at a later point.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I'm broadly of the same view - I think that that the lack of western support for Ukraine means that Russian forces are dug in and will be far more able to resist any Ukrainian attack than they were 18/12 months ago. Ukraine had, in effect, one chance to make much bigger gains and - for a number of reasons, some western, some Ukrainian, it didn't happen.
The only way to get a settlement is to stop Russia in it's tracks militarily, by which I mean both it's ability to advance on the ground, it's it's ability to degrade Ukrainian civilian/political morale through missile strikes on its cities and infrastructure. If you want Ukraine to then agree to write off what it has lost, you need to to convince them that what they hold is guaranteed - and for that, only NATO membership/treaty will do, with the large scale deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine, right up to the new border - UN forces simply aren't an option because Ukraine has no faith in them.
Similar threads
