Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
PTK
Paul Kegan
The First World War was actually an inter-imperialist conflict, in which no side was supportable, in my view, but some people tried to justify it as a war to liberate Belgium (an imperialist state itself), which had been occupied by German forces.
I think that sometimes the rights of people in one country may take second place to a larger issue. I suppose that that is why some people do not support the Palestinians in their fight to attain national sovereignty, and some do not support the fight of the Ukrainians to defend their national sovereignty.
The maintenance of the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state is seen as coinciding with the interests of Euro-American imperialism, whereas the establishment of sovereign Palestinian state is seen as contrary to those interests.
I think that sometimes the rights of people in one country may take second place to a larger issue. I suppose that that is why some people do not support the Palestinians in their fight to attain national sovereignty, and some do not support the fight of the Ukrainians to defend their national sovereignty.
The maintenance of the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state is seen as coinciding with the interests of Euro-American imperialism, whereas the establishment of sovereign Palestinian state is seen as contrary to those interests.
andysays
Love and solidarity
The logic of this position, that there can never be a negotiated peace because you can't trust Russia to abide by any agreement, is that the war will go on forever, or at least until there are no more Ukrainians left to fight.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Unlike our own government I suppose
andysays
Love and solidarity
It's barely been mentioned recently and doesn't seem to come up in the news often.
It's horrific. Those poor kids.
View attachment 420408
Ukrainian children recount horrors of being kidnapped by Russian soldiers
"I go around the world to tell about my mom. So maybe someone in the U.S. can hear me and help find her," said 13-year-old Sasha Radchuck.www.cbsnews.com
Russia are fucking scum.
Ukraine's missing children tracked down in Russia by digital sleuths
Investigators say they have found eight children, believed to have been abducted by Russia.www.bbc.co.uk
This is both a war crime and a terrible tragedy, but simply saying Russia are fucking scum doesn't help much, especially when you seem to be point blank denying the possibility of a negotiated peace agreement, which is surely what would be necessary if these 20,000 children are to have any hope of returning home to their families.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
No calling them scum doesn't help either.
andysays
Love and solidarity
What about the rest of my post?
Do you think there is any prospect of these kids being returned to their families without a negotiated peace settlement?
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
As it stands now I don't think there is any prospect of them being returned with or without one.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Let's suppose for shits and giggles that Vlad comes to the table and in good faith says that Russia will keep such and such land and will never again bother the rest of Ukraine and that peace has now been restored and the world moves on, yeah, we all know that won't ever happen, but...will he then hand back the 20,000 children he tore from their families to turn them in to good little Russians? He can't do that, cos by doing so he acknowledges that the warrant for his arrest is good and proper and that he should be spending the rest of his days rotting in a comfortable cell in Holland.
Just one of the myriad reasons why talk of negotiated peace is bobbins.
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Yossarian
⏭️
Yep, I don't think Russia would hand over children they consider Russian any more than they would hand over land they consider Russian - wouldn't surprise me if the records of where the children were sent have already been destroyed
sleaterkinney
Well-Known Member
What Milley actually said:
"There may be a political solution where politically the Russians withdraw," Milley said at a press conference Wednesday. "You want to negotiate at a time when you're at your strength, and your opponent is at weakness. And it's possible, maybe, that there'll be a political solution. All I'm saying is there's a possibility for it."
What Richards said:
‘at the moment, we are asking very brave Ukrainians, and the population as a whole, to fight a war which we’re not resourcing them to win – we haven’t even defined victory – and that they’re unlikely to succeed in, and therefore there is a growing case for saying we need to negotiate with Russia.’
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I think the resistance to negotiations from some posters stems not from a deep seated fatal mistrust of the Russians but more from a refusal to admit their heady hopes of a dismantled Russia, a deposed Putin and an enlarged EU inc Ukraine are dashed.
To accept a call for negotiations begs the question why now? Why not a year ago? Save all those lives? Easier to duck it and attack any call for it.
To have nothing left to offer apart from belittling calls for negotiations and calling for more weapons to be thrown into the fray is stark. It’s pathetic warmongering and is a failed strategy.
To accept a call for negotiations begs the question why now? Why not a year ago? Save all those lives? Easier to duck it and attack any call for it.
To have nothing left to offer apart from belittling calls for negotiations and calling for more weapons to be thrown into the fray is stark. It’s pathetic warmongering and is a failed strategy.
editor
hiraethified
editor
hiraethified
More about the latest Russian atrocity: women and children killed and a maternity hospital bombed.
Ukraine war: Children among eight dead in Russian strike on Dnipropetrovsk region
Russia strikes two cities in Ukraine's central Dnipropetrovsk region, hitting Dnipro's train station.
www.bbc.co.uk
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
What they were offered then was a demilitarised Ukraine, prohibited from joining any further defensive treaties, with their "independence" guaranteed by Moscow and no foreign troops allowed.
In that circumstance, it would be trivial for Russia to roll through the rest of the country at their leisure, because they'd be at the Polish border before any Western signatories had even woken up for the morning. It would be fait accompli, and it's unlikely even the Poles would be willing to invade Ukraine to try and push the Russians out at that point. The Ukrainians (rightly, IMO) viewed it as signing a delayed death warrant.
Demanding the reduction of the Ukrainian Army to essentially a reserve force is the telling bit. There was and always has been zero chance of Ukraine trying to invade Russia, so there is no need whatsoever for such a demand unless they were planning on coming back to finish the job.
Maybe you think it still should have been accepted as a way to lessen the eventual death toll. But it's not our choice to make, and I won't criticise people for refusing to sign their freedom away.
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
I think we all have to take a step back and recognise that we are sitting in comfortable Western European / US / wherever not-on-the-front-line homes and that we are all, more or less, picking a narrative and a set of telegram channels to follow. The truth is very likely somewhere in between these entrenched positions.
I really don't understand people who are buying Russia's propaganda from that position. I am not speaking about anyone on this thread, more a thirty year friendship of mine that has ended because the individual in question simply parrots Russian propaganda from all points east of The Grey Zone. It is something I am terribly sad about, but there we have it.
There are unpleasant people on both sides and active fascists on both sides. No one is claiming Ukraine was a perfect democracy before the war and no one serious claims that the Ukrainian military is free of active fascists. Unfortunately there are active fascist lunatics on both sides.
That said, I start and end with the position that Ukraine was a sovereign country subject to an unprovoked attack by it's neighbour on the basis of Putin's deranged ramblings deriving from the period of coronavirus isolation and his imperialist / revanchist friends who don't want to re-create the Soviet Union (Putin and his circle hate that now and regard Marxism-Leninism as an ideology that betrayed and sold out Russia and let to its international humilation in the 1990s) but the pre-1917 Russian empire. Putin's statement /tractatus on Ukraine from 2021, On the Historical Unity of Ukraine and Russia is ahistorical, skelly-eyed nonsense. As a result, I have supported Ukraine throughout this conflict and will continue to do so.
This is a difficult position to take for a lifelong Russophile, someone who loves Russian history, literature, art and society. But it's 2024 and everything is in a terrible mess. Yes, it is not comfortable to be sitting in the same tent as NATO, the British political mainstream. But it is all in. There is no appeasing this regime and there is no negotiating with it, as they interpret calls to negotiation or compromise as a sign of weakness and it will- like it or not- encourage future attacks by re-worked, re-armed and re-staffed Russian forces who will attack Poland and the Baltics based on lessons learned from the terrible costs they have paid in trying and failing to subdue Ukraine.
Ukraine is- without doubt- in a difficult position at the moment, largely because of the vacillation by its backers in the West. Those in or near the front lines are embittered at the waning of western resolve. Civilians are dying in large numbers on a daily basis through indiscrimate Russian attacks on civlian targets. Russia's occupation of Enerhodar sees them hold a nuclear blackmail over the whole European continent.
Sadly it seems Ukraine's future is being decided not in Kyiv or in the battlefields in the East but in the American senate. The mood seems to be swinging toward releasing the funding stranglehold. Should funding be blocked again it is predicted that Ukraine will be done by the end of this year. Which means a wider European war in 2025/26 as Russia will re-group and then go after Moldova, Poland & the Baltics. The same will happen if some crap "peace deal" is agreed which signs over the territory Russia took by force to Russia. It will just buy a few years until they come back for the rest of Ukraine and what they can grab westwards.
It's been decided in Russia that this is an all-out, existential conflict between Russia and the West. We might shake our heads at the tragic delusion in that statement, but those who support Ukraine have to respond in kind and with the same resolve. It is precisley the failure to arm and equip Ukraine properly that is leading to incremental Russian gains on the battlefield currently. The next few months will be pivotal for the outcome of the war.
For those who take a view similar to Russia's, on the basis that the Ukrainian working class is being bled to death on the battlefield whilst what's left of "the West" makes its mind up whether it wants to defend itself or not, well, I understand. I can see how that point can be made. What I can't tolerate is gleeful parroting of Russian propaganda as a wind-up, or cheering on from the sidelines as though it's a football match.
I never thought I'd live in a time where it was so difficult to see a route back to a generally peaceful world. But, revanchist nationalism, climate emergency and energy transition mean it is going to be messy as fuck for the foreseaable future. The chances of the world making it out of this period without a major / nuclear conflict or accelerating numbers of deaths through climate instability are dismayingly narrow.
Long-winded but my honest take on this. Maybe it's naive to try and cling onto some international rules based order when it is so clearly failing. But I cannot see any other way.
I really don't understand people who are buying Russia's propaganda from that position. I am not speaking about anyone on this thread, more a thirty year friendship of mine that has ended because the individual in question simply parrots Russian propaganda from all points east of The Grey Zone. It is something I am terribly sad about, but there we have it.
There are unpleasant people on both sides and active fascists on both sides. No one is claiming Ukraine was a perfect democracy before the war and no one serious claims that the Ukrainian military is free of active fascists. Unfortunately there are active fascist lunatics on both sides.
That said, I start and end with the position that Ukraine was a sovereign country subject to an unprovoked attack by it's neighbour on the basis of Putin's deranged ramblings deriving from the period of coronavirus isolation and his imperialist / revanchist friends who don't want to re-create the Soviet Union (Putin and his circle hate that now and regard Marxism-Leninism as an ideology that betrayed and sold out Russia and let to its international humilation in the 1990s) but the pre-1917 Russian empire. Putin's statement /tractatus on Ukraine from 2021, On the Historical Unity of Ukraine and Russia is ahistorical, skelly-eyed nonsense. As a result, I have supported Ukraine throughout this conflict and will continue to do so.
This is a difficult position to take for a lifelong Russophile, someone who loves Russian history, literature, art and society. But it's 2024 and everything is in a terrible mess. Yes, it is not comfortable to be sitting in the same tent as NATO, the British political mainstream. But it is all in. There is no appeasing this regime and there is no negotiating with it, as they interpret calls to negotiation or compromise as a sign of weakness and it will- like it or not- encourage future attacks by re-worked, re-armed and re-staffed Russian forces who will attack Poland and the Baltics based on lessons learned from the terrible costs they have paid in trying and failing to subdue Ukraine.
Ukraine is- without doubt- in a difficult position at the moment, largely because of the vacillation by its backers in the West. Those in or near the front lines are embittered at the waning of western resolve. Civilians are dying in large numbers on a daily basis through indiscrimate Russian attacks on civlian targets. Russia's occupation of Enerhodar sees them hold a nuclear blackmail over the whole European continent.
Sadly it seems Ukraine's future is being decided not in Kyiv or in the battlefields in the East but in the American senate. The mood seems to be swinging toward releasing the funding stranglehold. Should funding be blocked again it is predicted that Ukraine will be done by the end of this year. Which means a wider European war in 2025/26 as Russia will re-group and then go after Moldova, Poland & the Baltics. The same will happen if some crap "peace deal" is agreed which signs over the territory Russia took by force to Russia. It will just buy a few years until they come back for the rest of Ukraine and what they can grab westwards.
It's been decided in Russia that this is an all-out, existential conflict between Russia and the West. We might shake our heads at the tragic delusion in that statement, but those who support Ukraine have to respond in kind and with the same resolve. It is precisley the failure to arm and equip Ukraine properly that is leading to incremental Russian gains on the battlefield currently. The next few months will be pivotal for the outcome of the war.
For those who take a view similar to Russia's, on the basis that the Ukrainian working class is being bled to death on the battlefield whilst what's left of "the West" makes its mind up whether it wants to defend itself or not, well, I understand. I can see how that point can be made. What I can't tolerate is gleeful parroting of Russian propaganda as a wind-up, or cheering on from the sidelines as though it's a football match.
I never thought I'd live in a time where it was so difficult to see a route back to a generally peaceful world. But, revanchist nationalism, climate emergency and energy transition mean it is going to be messy as fuck for the foreseaable future. The chances of the world making it out of this period without a major / nuclear conflict or accelerating numbers of deaths through climate instability are dismayingly narrow.
Long-winded but my honest take on this. Maybe it's naive to try and cling onto some international rules based order when it is so clearly failing. But I cannot see any other way.
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andysays
Love and solidarity
It's not about "trusting" Russia, it's about setting up suitable internationally agreed guarantees for any peace settlement, which has been discussed on the thread previously.
Such an agreement wouldn't be 100% perfect, but to dismiss the idea out of hand as you appear to be doing leaves nothing other than the prospect of the continuation of all the atrocities you've posted here, and a war which drags on forever
PTK
Paul Kegan
The Russian Federation cannot be trusted to stick by any peace agreement that is signed, claim some people.
Do these people apply the same logic to the State of Israel? Can that state be trusted to abide by any peace agreement?
If it is correct to arm the Ukrainian armed forces to defend the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state, would it be correct to arm Palestinian armed groups to enable them to achieve a sovereign state?
What are the principles on which we base our political positions?
Do these people apply the same logic to the State of Israel? Can that state be trusted to abide by any peace agreement?
If it is correct to arm the Ukrainian armed forces to defend the sovereignty of the Ukrainian state, would it be correct to arm Palestinian armed groups to enable them to achieve a sovereign state?
What are the principles on which we base our political positions?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I'd - genuinely - be interested in seeing what you think the kind of security guarantees that might/would/should enable Ukraine to walk into negotiations might look like?
A Ukraine-NATO treaty giving Ukr Article 5 protection without membership?
NATO forces - think of NATO forces in Germany in the 80's - based in Ukraine, right up against the border of the Russian controlled areas?
Giving Ukraine nukes?
What would be the price you would pay for 'peace', rather than the price you think they should pay?
sleaterkinney
Well-Known Member
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Not to mention that Russia would not agree to anything like this so there was no real deal to be made that offers Ukraine any long term security.
If the charges of Putin fandom are ridiculed and dismissed. Where are you same people calling out in the same fashion, the charges of war mongers, NATO /EU fans, aimed at those of us who believe Ukraine should be given the arms they need to defend themselves and skeptical about the 2022 supposed peace plan which keeps getting dragged up and knocked down for the obvious reasons outlined again and again.
We can disagree about the state of the war, prognostications, even what qualifies as fascism and so on but sick of this other bullshit.
We can disagree about the state of the war, prognostications, even what qualifies as fascism and so on but sick of this other bullshit.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I read that twice but struggle to understand what you are trying to convey.
A few posters like yourself, discokermit 1 or 2 others I can't recall off hand, have at times been accused of being on Putin's side, pro invasion, supporters of Russian propergander Which has been challenged by a second group of posters. Fair enough and I haven't gotten particularly involved in that. But that second group say fuck all when posters such as me are accused of being warmongers, Nato fans, similar braindead shit, for believing Ukraine should continue to receive western military aid.
And it pisses me off.
The whole pick a team thing is dum too. I don't reckon you're actually a Putin fan. I'm not a NATO cheer leader and doubt any of us are.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
There has been more detail emerging this week in an article about the contentious ‘2022’ peace discussions. In return for Ukraine only retaining a small army and not being allowed missiles with a range exceeding something like 40km, the deal would be guaranteed by a selection of counties who would need to unanimously agree to action to defend Ukraine from a hostile party. This selection of countries was to include Russia of course. Can anyone spot the obvious flaw in such an agreement?
editor
hiraethified
That's priceless. No wonder Ukraine didn't sign such a ridiculous document.
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
The problem is that there are no guarantees that could ever be given, no peace formula developed that would allow both sides to continue to be antagonistic towards each other whilst also dealing with this crisis. Russia cannot accept a powerful hostile state on its borders; Ukraine cannot accept that either.
The policies of both states governments - Ukraine via seeking alliances that could allow it to be hostile, Russia by seizing lands that were traditionally voting for pro-Russian elements - are what is driving the conflict. The rest of the world has long since needed to, via discussions and diplomacy with all sides, point out the futility of what both sides are doing. It is in both sides interests to have close relations, if not friendly then at least based on mutual interest and not in complete opposition to one another.
Unless Europe and the US are actually going to support Ukraine enough for them to win rather than merely survive, then I would agree with finding some kind of peace settlement. The only realistic one I can think of is Ukraine surrendering territory in exchange for NATO membership and/or presence.
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