Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
It is time for Charles to enforce the historic claim to the French Crown
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
How quickly and easily spain is forgotten
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The British couldn't rerun banner let alone invade Ireland. And we all know the people the government would like to deter with trident are more likely to die laughing at attempts to launch it than from a nuclear explosion
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Is the stepping up of Western military aid this week, together with a tougher posture taken by Macron recently (talking about NATO troops etc) not perhaps a pretext to negotiations, i.e. putting Ukraine in a stronger position? Russia has recently said they have no reason to negotiate at the moment as they’re making territorial gains (albeit at a very high cost in terms of equipment and people), but if they hit a limit or find their current strategy thwarted then maybe ‘peace’ of some form is back on the table? Russia has succeeded in cowering the west with repeated threats and ‘red lines’ but has continued to escalate things regardless, and perhaps there is now a realisation by leaders of countries backing Ukraine that being a bit assertive in response might be a more succesful strategy? This might look a bit like brinkmanship but capitulation isn’t winning anything.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
The basis for negotiations, and their outcomes, are set by the battlefield - so as an example, the 'negotiations' at the beginning of the Falklands war were about the removal of de jure and de facto British sovereignty and it's replacement with an Argentine de jure sovereignty and a de facto UN implementation - three months later those negotiations are about whether Argentine officers get to keep thier side arms as they board POW ships....
If Ukraine is supported, massively, then those negotiations might be about a UN administered 'Russian enclave' in eastern Ukraine that is legally part of Ukraine, and defended by a UN mandated, NATO forces. If Ukraine is left hanging in the wind, the negotiations will be about which routes Russian tanks use to drive into Kyiv.
The conditions which brings about an acceptable negotiated solution are the same that would bring about an acceptable military solution. They are the same thing - if you want a good negotiated solution, give Ukraine what it needs to win on the battlefield, and - paradoxically - it won't have to use them.
If you want fewer people to die, whether Russian or Ukrainian, arm Ukraine to the point where Russia seeks to avoid a fight.
If Ukraine is supported, massively, then those negotiations might be about a UN administered 'Russian enclave' in eastern Ukraine that is legally part of Ukraine, and defended by a UN mandated, NATO forces. If Ukraine is left hanging in the wind, the negotiations will be about which routes Russian tanks use to drive into Kyiv.
The conditions which brings about an acceptable negotiated solution are the same that would bring about an acceptable military solution. They are the same thing - if you want a good negotiated solution, give Ukraine what it needs to win on the battlefield, and - paradoxically - it won't have to use them.
If you want fewer people to die, whether Russian or Ukrainian, arm Ukraine to the point where Russia seeks to avoid a fight.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
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mojo pixy
...שלא נמצא בשמאל
ska invita
back on the other side
militaristic nonsense
more war equals peace, yeah thanks thats going well, see the state of the world for details of your lifes work
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I mean you can make an argument about whether the Ukrainian people are best served in this case or not but it's not really in dispute that making the consequences worse for bullying can deter it. I don't see the class war being won by us aggressively surrendering at our opponents, for example.
The only other options are to let Russia do what the fuck they like or otherwise reward their aggression.
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
you know Putin's made remarks about other counties boarding itself and Ukraine that are historically Russia...
how many would you like him take control of in the name of peace?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Interview on the difficulties of rotation replenishing combat brigades on the Ukraine frontline
english.nv.ua
Exclusive: Ukrainian officer on manpower shortages — interview
Deputy Commander of the 3rd Separate Assault Brigade, Major Maksym Zhorin, spoke in an interview with NV Radio on April 18 about the manpower shortage in his unit and whether Russia could achieve a breakthrough on the battlefield.
english.nv.ua
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
The whole thing is fucking shit and there is not really any good outcome here, and I'm fed up with those pretending there is.
But Russia being stopped in its tracks here seems the result most likely to reduce future war not increas them.
This more war for peace nonsense only has any validity if aimed at those in the agressor county supporting the war
And before anyone accuses me of wanting Ukrainians to sacrifice themselves for others. Well first they can fuck right off. And second the Ukrainians continue to want to fight if that changes then I sure won't condem them for it. And if Ukraine does "loose"* the war the blame for that sits with the political class in Europe and the US.
*I still feel that in sense Unraine has already achieved a degree of victory as I think whatever Russia gets out of this will fall short of their initial objectives.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Difficult to say. Certainly the initial objectives fell into abject failure, but it's also forced a definite factual (replacing propagandistic) improvement re: the overall state of the Russian military machine, a major economic restructuring around that and a rise in Russian Army leaders' political prominence. In practical terms Russia will end the war presenting a more dangerous military threat than when it started - lots of veterans, most of the broken toys replaced with working stock, extensive experience in developing modern warfare strategies suitable for their military cultures etc.
Post-war (and post-Putin) it's anyone's guess how those changes will pan out long term. Will Putin (or his successor) move to cut the legs out from under the military chiefs once it's over? Will the military leadership (as it is likely considering as I write) be able to leverage its current de facto power into something lasting as Putin's own health and grip wanes? Factors such as Russia being geographically larger but also fairly comprehensively in hoc to China, its multi-year descent into aggressive cultural militarism, the inward turn of its economy making it more dependent on eg. the reproduction of its military-industrial complex, the West's approach to long-term energy retrenchment etc could have major implications or none for the future of Ukrainian security/statehood.
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Yossarian
⏭️
US House passes $61 billion in long-delayed aid to Ukraine
www.theguardian.com
US House approves $61bn in military aid for Ukraine after months of stalling
Ukrainian president thanks America after Speaker Mike Johnson secures bipartisan support for funding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
US House passes $61 billion in long-delayed aid to Ukraine
US House approves $61bn in military aid for Ukraine after months of stalling
Ukrainian president thanks America after Speaker Mike Johnson secures bipartisan support for funding Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan
Thankfully a lot of it is ready to go - packaged up and everything. Some of it is even stockpiled in Poland...
However, imv, this is probably the last big US package - I think (assuming I read the stats correctly) that more republicans voted against than for, and they aren't going to get weaker as November approaches. If Biden wins then perhaps, but if Trump wins, forget it.
Europe needs to hit the Buy it Now button, and hard...
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Europe needs to take this as their green light to follow, then with a fair wind come November Trump goes to prison and Biden has the mandate to allow Ukraine to receive what they need.
Ideally.
Ideally.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Go ask your other friends. They will know.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Raheem
Well-Known Member
If you get a decent answer, you'll ignore it. It's not why you're asking, is it?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
I am asking a straight question.
Will the arms supplied enable Ukraine to break through Russian lines and retake the currently occupied land?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
It will slow the current Russian advance, make it cost significantly more in lives and equipment, and reduce the effects of Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
That's a slightly higher bar than your last question, but OK.
It will not directly and immediately do that, but it is the start of solving Ukraine's supply problems which are, in a roundabout way, about money. It will also greatly enhance Ukraine's ability to strike behind enemy lines, which has been poor, so it should alter the battlefield dynamics in Ukraine's favour.
Moreover, I think failure to pass this funding may have, in due course, led to a victory by default for your guys, because Europe would have been likely to start thinking about following suit. On paper, it doesn't make sense to do that, but it only takes a couple of governments to like the idea of reallocating the money.
discokermit
Well-Known Member
for which side?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
For Russia...
Ax^
Silly Rabbit
editor
hiraethified
It'll probably save the lives of many, many Ukrainian civilians, and help protect their homes, schools, hospitals and infrastructure from further bombardment.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
That seems like a reasonable assessment of what the arms will achieve.
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