Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

I can't disagree with that. But once the decapitation move by Russia failed, the status quo was fairly locked in. They did that without Western arms.

ETA: It's entirely possible, as a result of "de-nazification", that just as many Ukrainians would have died. But a whole lot fewer Russians would have died, for sure. And some sort of guerilla campaign would be guaranteed.

yeh as envisaged in such conferences as tartu resistance seminar. (joint special operations university press link)

 

[Pickman's model]

You have spectacularly missed my point.

A majority would have backed war in Britain during WW1, too. So what? Emiline Pankhurst's lot packed in planting bombs to hand out white feathers to young men for not doing their bit by getting themselves blown up in the name of a pointless and futile war.

a much greater majority in britain would have backed war in france in ww1. the pages of eg the hackney gazette for the war years are replete with sad stories of suicide from the stress of air raids and men in court for trying to avoid conscription. there were a lot of people trying to get out of being killed for king and country

 

[emanymton]

I can't disagree with that. But once the decapitation move by Russia failed, the status quo was fairly locked in. They did that without Western arms.

ETA: It's entirely possible, as a result of "de-nazification", that just as many Ukrainians would have died. But a whole lot fewer Russians would have died, for sure. And some sort of guerilla campaign would be guaranteed.

We simply have no way of knowing what would have happened, how many would have died, or how long it would last. So I don't see much point is engaging in this speculation.

But the main problem with this approach is it shifts all the responsibility off Russia and onto Ukraine.

If this was people it would be called victim blaming.

 

[Dystopiary]

I should hope most of us want the war to end as soon as possible.

What concerns me is - who gets left behind to suffer under occupation? Most likely to be disabled people, people with mental health issues, elderly people and orphans. They're the people most likely to be left behind when invaded which is what's happened in the occupied South and East of Ukraine. As they always are, at the mercy of the occupiers. That's not peace.

And if you stop it now, what about the Ukrainians under Russian occupation?

Magical "peace" deal that stops mass torture and murder?

 

[Ax^]

..

That's not really a very good comparison isn't? Maybe there is a slight difference Britain in WWI and Ukraine now., just maybe

not sure why people keep being up ww1 as Britian was not even at risk of been invaded during it

the comparison should really be should Churchill have negotiated a peace deal with the third Reich whe the BEF was recuse from Dunkirk and the channel Islands where captured

 

[Elpenor]

somof he said cold battle ..

not sure why people keep being up ww1 as Britian was not even at risk of been invaded during it
the comparison should really be should Churchill have negotiated a peace deal with the third Reich whe the BEF was recuse from Dunkirk and the channel Islands where captured

Is Britain at risk of being invaded by Russia at present?

 

[Ax^]

edit my post and complete take out the context of it nice

 

[Elpenor]

edit my post and complete take out the context of it nice

The context was not particularly clear - I’ll add that back in

 

[Pickman's model]

We simply have no way of knowing what would have happened, how many would have died, or how long it would last. So I don't see much point is engaging in this speculation.

But the main problem with this approach is it shifts all fhe responsibility off Russia and onto Ukraine.

If this was people it would be called victim blaming.

ukraine had to make a decision in 2022, whether it fought or whether it didn't. it wasn't a decision to russians could really make for them. i'd say they might have made the wrong decision, that a change of government and commitment to neutrality were the most likely outcomes had they surrendered. as you say we won't know - at least until historians have access to the russian archives or some form of tribunal access to senior members of the russian government and armed forces.

 

[Pickman's model]

Is Britain at risk of being invaded by Russia at present?

the country is replete with oligarchs and their property, not to mention their lackeys

 

[emanymton]

Is Britain at risk of being invaded by Russia at present?

Urm no, but Ukraine had been and the original point was comparing Ukraine now to Britain in WWI.

 

[Ax^]

The context was not particularly clear - I’ll add that back in

you did not bother to read what I was replying to you mean

 

[Pickman's model]

Urm no, but Ukraine had been and the original point was comparing Ukraine now to Britain in WWI.

pity isolated little britain, sundered from its extensive overseas empire

 

[emanymton]

pity isolated little britain, sundered from its extensive overseas empire

Which is why I said it wasn't a great comparison to make.

 

[Pickman's model]

Which is why I said it wasn't a great comparison to make.

it might have been why you said it but you didn't say it. and i can't really respond to things you think but don't say.

 

[emanymton]

ukraine had to make a decision in 2022, whether it fought or whether it didn't. it wasn't a decision to russians could really make for them. i'd say they might have made the wrong decision, that a change of government and commitment to neutrality were the most likely outcomes had they surrendered. as you say we won't know - at least until historians have access to the russian archives or some form of tribunal access to senior members of the russian government and armed forces.

You still seem be removing all agency from Russia.

As for Russia not being able to make the choice for them, well they made the choice there would be a war and with the aim of being able make all choices for them.

 

[emanymton]

you did not bother to read what I was replying to you mean

Maybe they have me on ignore.

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe they have me on ignore.

and who can blame them

 

[Elpenor]

Urm no, but Ukraine had been and the original point was comparing Ukraine now to Britain in WWI.

The hysterical posts stating “what if it was your family being murdered” and the like would appear to suggest an invasion is imminent

 

[Elpenor]

Maybe they have me on ignore.

Nah I like to keep a close eye on the posts of the person who has labelled me a far right conspiracy theorist just in case they ever produce any evidence to support their claim

 

[editor]

Yes, but "wishing to halt Russia" is one thing, and wishing to send ever younger Ukrainian conscripts to their deaths with the outcome of achieving fuck all other than dragging out a lost war is not the same thing.

The occupied land is lost, US, UK and Ukrainian generals all recognise that.... Even if more US money/weapons do come on board it won't change that reality.

How we stop the fascist creep that's taking place around the world is absolutely vital to think about and resist (not least when our own governments are supporting/arming a fascistic Israeli state currently enacting ethic cleansing and provoking a potentially much wider war)
...wishing for the continuation of this war in Ukraine does nothing to halt that fascistic spread.

So you hand Russia victory, condemn hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians to a life under a brutal neo-fascist regime and then what?

What makes you think Russia won't just rearm and restock and then continue with its stated aim of taking all of Ukraine? And then - after seeing the weakness in the west to resist his imperialistic plans - start making eyes at other countries?

This notion that if you give Putin a large chunk of Ukraine now he'll never invade again seems remarkably naïve, tbh.

Putin Unlikely To Stop In Russia And Ukraine

Two years after Russia invaded Ukraine and the continued repression of domestic critics signal Vladimir Putin is unlikely to change course.

www.forbes.com

 

[Pickman's model]

strangely brian taylor's book, the code of putinism, doesn't mention fascism once - he prefers to describe putin's russia as authoritarian. i suppose he's the wrong sort of expert

 

[Raheem]

strangely brian taylor's book, the code of putinism, doesn't mention fascism once - he prefers to describe putin's russia as authoritarian. i suppose he's the wrong sort of expert

Tbf, most people prefer not to describe fascists as fascists, and academics are the worst.

 

[Pickman's model]

Tbf, most people prefer not to describe fascists as fascists, and academics are the worst.

tbh you think most people prefer not to describe fascists as fascists: but i'd love to see any actual evidence you have for your claim.

 

[discokermit]

tbh you think most people prefer not to describe fascists as fascists: but i'd love to see any actual evidence you have for your claim.

i think you will find unevidenced claims are de rigueur for this thread amongst certain people.

 

[andysays]

And if you stop it now, what about the Ukrainians under Russian occupation?

The argument is that even if the war continues, most if not all of those Ukrainians will remain under Russian occupation.

 

[Pickman's model]

i think you will find unevidenced claims are de rigueur for this thread amongst certain people.

very true

 

[editor]

Tbf, most people prefer not to describe fascists as fascists, and academics are the worst.

Not all, though.

Russia in 2022 seems to embody the darkest elements of 20th-century fascism. Led by a supposedly miraculous leader, it is a place where an array of ahistorical and quasi-religious thinking, imagery, and myths support a total militarization of the state, the reconquest of a lost empire, and a mission to wipe out a racial enemy—the Ukrainian people. Denunciations and free-speech crackdowns are becoming more public and more violent. The last independent media are gone, and everybody lives in fear of arbitrary arrest and beatings, afraid to speak their mind on what is still not officially called a “war.” One acquaintance tells me his elderly, decrepit mother was arrested by the FSB—today’s incarnation of the notorious KGB—in the first week of the Ukraine war for sharing a social media post merely reporting on an anti-war protest.

Russia’s Frighteningly Fascist Youth

A new generation of Russians glorifies war, death, and Vladimir Putin.

foreignpolicy.com

Russia — the epitome of an atomized polity — illustrates the possibility of a modern fascism. Certainly, organically, the Russian government does not resemble that of Mussolini’s Italy, either in its rise to power, nor in the political structures that define it today.

Politically, however, it has come to reproduce core attributes of it: the current system has emerged out of a liberal-consumerist one, without any apparent political rupture. It has come to reject liberalism since 2012, accusing it of having allowed for the destruction of the “natural social order.” Ideologically, it also aims to resurrect this “natural order” in morality and geopolitics.

The current government has reproduced, if not strengthened, the most repressive aspects of Soviet morality, for example the persecution of homosexuality — although what was originally attacked as “antisocial” is now directly addressed as a perversion of morality and social order. The decriminalization of male domestic violence signals acceptance of violence, committed not only by the state but also by individuals, as the expression of the “natural order” and social hierarchy.

Russia Shows How Fascist Ideas Can Triumph Over an Atomized Society

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s coup attempt demonstrated the conflicts within Russia’s elite — but also the great political passivity of the general population. In today’s Russia, a fascist cult of violence has taken root in an atomized, demobilized society.

jacobin.com

Ruscism, also known as rashism, russism or simply Russian fascism, is the ideology that forms the backbone of Vladimir Putin’s decades-long dictatorial rule. The term was coined by journalists to describe Russian ultranationalism in Chechnya and Georgia in the late 1990s. However, it began to crystallise into a fully-fledged ideology, complete with an omnipresent symbol – the Latin letter Z – after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Ruscist ideology undoubtedly has deep fascist roots. Its foundations were laid by Russian political ultranationalist thinker Ivan Ilyin (1883–1954), whose work Putin has frequently referenced in speeches. More recently, Putin has been inspired by the works of modern far-right thinkers Alexander Dugin and Timofey Sergeytsev. The latter published an article in April 2022 calling for the total destruction of the Ukrainian state and its national identity.

Ruscism, like other forms of fascism, upholds an ultranationalist and dictatorial political system with a strong supreme leader who demands complete obedience from citizens (including all those living in Russian speaking territories).

Ruscism - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Russian fascism: the six principles of Putin’s nationalist ideology

Putin’s ideological propaganda leans heavily on Russian history

theconversation.com

And here's what a professor of history at Yale University and the author of many books on fascism, totalitarianism and European history says: .

We Should Say It. Russia Is Fascist.​

https://archive.ph/iZCnu

 

[editor]

The argument is that even if the war continues, most if not all of those Ukrainians will remain under Russian occupation.

The kidnapped children certainly didn't get a choice.

 

[emanymton]

Nah I like to keep a close eye on the posts of the person who has labelled me a far right conspiracy theorist just in case they ever produce any evidence to support their claim

Well you have posted outright conspiracy theories I'm afraid

As for Far right, well it is their talking points you echo and in recent years many former left leaning people have been pulled completely into the far right orbit though conspiratorial nonsense. So I think you are in danger of ending up in the same place.

I may owe you a bit of an apology though. I don't get the same sense of glee and joy from you that I do from other posters, so if I have said or even just implied that in the past I apologise.

As utterly wrong as I think you perspective is on this you do at least you show concern for the massive human tragedy that is taking place.