The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Buddy Bradley]

Sunak's tweet should have been quoting Captain Darling: "Made a note in my diary tonight. Simply said: Bugger."

 

[Cloo]

Weirdly BBC exit saying Finchley (which should be Finchley and Golders Green) where we are, to go Lib Dem, which can't be right. They are the one party we haven't had so much as a leaflet for and Labour has a very strong candidate.

There was a strong swing to put them in 2nd place behind Tories last time but that was literally because of Corbyn and Jewish votes all moving to Lib Dems (including mine) when Luciana Berger was the candidate.

But I wouldn't object if they won it this time anyhow.

 

[belboid]

13 Refuk means they will probably win Rochdale, btw

 

[Wilf]

You can search the exit poll results seat by seat here: Exit poll: What is the forecast election result in my constituency?

A lot are too close to call, so the projections could easily change by quite a lot on a very small number of votes.

That has Islington North has too close to call. Not sure if that's just lack of detailed info.

 

[strung out]

13 Refuk means they will probably win Rochdale, btw

Exit poll has Rochdale as a 99% chance of Labour victory.

 

[JimW]

why are you ignoring 2019 when Corbyn had the worst result since 1935?

As Belboid's said, it's still notable.

 

[Elpenor]

The bbc projection of seats in the SW doesn’t match what I’ve seen on the ground

I reckon a lot of seats may be split around 30-25-25-15-5 between the four main parties (5 for the greens + others) with tories holding on. A real example of why we need PR.

 

[Epona]

Sunak's tweet should have been quoting Captain Darling: "Made a note in my diary tonight. Simply said: Bugger."

That would surely require him to have some humour and personality...

 

[Cloo]

I will be annoyed as fuck if Lib Dem vote keeps Tories in here, which is possible. I suppose you might get people seeing that Lib Dems were 2nd last time but not understanding the context thinking they should vote for them to get Tories out this time.

It may well be a close one

 

[danny la rouge]

That SNP exit poll…! Can’t see how the nationalists can demand independence now…

The SNP will do very badly, but the BBC here are making it clear they aren’t accepting that extrapolation. You have to remember that the sample is UK-wide and the Scottish portion of it is outside margins of error. It can’t be taken literally for Scotland.

That said, the SNP tally will be very low.

On your other point, independence does not map onto SNP support, and current polls put support for independence higher than support for the SNP (at Westminster). And that parenthesis is one of the other complicating factors here.

Is independence off the table for the foreseeable? Yes. But it’s more complicated than you’re imagining.

 

[Buddy Bradley]

Exit poll forecast has our seat being a 22% chance Reform gain

 

[weepiper]

There's only 18 exit poll locations in Scotland, I'd take that SNP prediction with a very large pinch of salt.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

That has Islington North has too close to call. Not sure if that's just lack of detailed info.

Yeah, it will be. Methodology only has 150 seats covered, so it has little to say about places with indies.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Blimey, something we agree on

Stopped clock and all that.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

There's only 18 exit poll locations in Scotland, I'd take that SNP prediction with a very large pinch of salt.

It’s done via modelling not raw numbers

 

[Kid_Eternity]

why are you ignoring 2019 when Corbyn had the worst result since 1935?

Because magic grandpa won the argument!

 

[planetgeli]

Well the God of Electoral Calculus, which people have been constantly quoting on here, is currently hiding under a pillow.

 

[Bingoman]

Sky news are saying Lee Anderson looks to have lost ashfield

 

[Kid_Eternity]

The SNP will do very badly, but the BBC here are making it clear they aren’t accepting that extrapolation. You have to remember that the sample is UK-wide and the Scottish portion of it is outside margins of error. It can’t be taken literally for Scotland.

That said, the SNP tally will be very low.

On your other point, independence does not map onto SNP support, and current polls put support for independence higher than support for the SNP (at Westminster). And that parenthesis is one of the other complicating factors here.

Is independence off the table for the foreseeable? Yes. But it’s more complicated than you’re imagining.

The real number won’t be hugely off which is still a disaster

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Sky news are saying Lee Anderson looks to have lost ashfield

Haha love it!

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It’s done via modelling not raw numbers

Of course it is. All polling is. But it can't magic up fine-grained data.

 

[danny la rouge]

It’s done via modelling not raw numbers

I’m watching the BBC in Scotland. They’re saying they don’t accept the Scotland figures from that poll.

 

[planetgeli]

I’m watching the BBC in Scotland. They’re saying they don’t accept the Scotland figures from that poll.

Even so, I still don't believe my guess of 22 is nearer.

 

[danny la rouge]

The real number won’t be hugely off which is still a disaster

I’ve said they’ll do very badly.

 

[kabbes]

Exit poll prediction is that Hunt has less than 20% chance of retaining his seat

 

[prunus]

Yep, my mp. Thing is, you never hear anything from her or about her in this constituency. She has rested on her laurels. Got one leaflet, nothing on socials, just silence. Never stopped hearing about Reform. Some locals don’t understand what mps do or how local government works and some think she is the head of Wakefield metropolitan district council and therefore blame her for budget cuts. But everything is spent on other towns, not ours. We lost our library, sports centre and swimming pool because of cuts yet no one else did. Our local community centre has been mothballed for years due to asbestos and instead there are shipping containers in the carpark. The funding to rebuild it is missing. We’ll see how this pans out, the Reform candidate is an NHS worker and a local and has stood as an independent not here but in other local constituencies. If he gets in then Im hoping he’s not a cunt even if Reform are. Lets see. I walked past several polling stations today and didn’t see anyone outside doing exit polls.

Exit poll suggests 83% lab hold.

 

[The39thStep]

why are you ignoring 2019 when Corbyn had the worst result since 1935?

why don't you talk politics at work?

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Of course it is. All polling is. But it can't magic up fine-grained data.

It’s data analysis and modelling not some simpleton maths.

 

[Petcha]

Sky's calling Jeremy Hunt to have lost his seat

 

[belboid]

I think I can guess how Emily Maitliss voted. Almost as blatant as Kuennsberg.