The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[pbsmooth]

why don't you talk politics at work?

You’ve lost me…?

 

[bemused]

Bet the Tories are regretting outing Liz Truss.

 

[Wilf]

There's only 18 exit poll locations in Scotland, I'd take that SNP prediction with a very large pinch of salt.

Aye, John Curtis virtually saying that now.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

I’ve said they’ll do very badly.

They will. Losing to Labour is a big blow, losing 60-80% is huge.

 

[weltweit]

BBC R4 are saying there could be an actual result announced in 6 minutes

Blyth ..

 

[The39thStep]

Sky feed reminding us Starmer would still have a worse share than Corbyn 2017 on this exit poll.

Good news for my bet

 

[Mation]

You can search the exit poll results seat by seat here: Exit poll: What is the forecast election result in my constituency?

A lot are too close to call, so the projections could easily change by quite a lot on a very small number of votes.

Too close to call here in Islington North, apparently

 

[JimW]

Sky charts bloke going back to the Corn Laws and still not finding a worse Tory result

 

[weltweit]

Unless Sunderland South get in first ..

 

[ruffneck23]

Exit poll prediction is that Hunt has less than 20% chance of retaining his seat

Just been messaging my mate who lives in Ash, although he wanted to vote for labour due to policies (???) he went lib dem to get the fucker out

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Please, please be true!

 

[The39thStep]

You’ve lost me…?

Soz got you confused with another poster

 

[Bingoman]

Please, please be true!

Good

 

[belboid]

Labour on 39% overall C4 said? ie lower than C17

 

[littlebabyjesus]

It’s data analysis and modelling not some simpleton maths.

I know a bit about the maths of this stuff, thanks.

You cannot magic up fine-grained data where you don't have it.

For the 120-odd sample points from England, things can be extrapolated across the whole area because it's the same parties standing more or less everywhere. In Scotland, that's not the case. Data from England won't tell you much about what is going on in Scotland, and the sample size specific to Scotland is small.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

I think I can guess how Emily Maitliss voted. Almost as blatant as Kuennsberg.

Not a big fan of either but think LK is much much worse.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

I know a bit about the maths of this stuff, thanks.

You cannot magic up fine-grained data where you don't have it.

For the 120-odd sample points from England, things can be extrapolated across the whole area because it's the same parties standing more or less everywhere. In Scotland, that's not the case. Data from England won't tell you much about what is going on in Scotland, and the sample size specific to Scotland is small.

The comparative modelling is also a factor, if you know about this you’d appreciate that.

 

[pbsmooth]

Just when I thought I was out… I’m tempted to stay up and see the whites of the eyes of some of these cunts losing their seats

 

[belboid]

Not a big fan of either but think LK is much much worse.

Maitliss shits on Kuenssberg (videos are apparently available). And blatantly voted Labour.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Spot on

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Maitliss shits on Kuenssberg (videos are apparently available). And blatantly voted Labour.

Indeed but her questioning quality isn’t as good as it could be. She’s no Sophie Ridge

 

[weepiper]

Why can no-one ever spell miniscule properly anymore.

 

[JimW]

Reform deputy leader coming out swinging for PR obviously

 

[JimW]

Spot on

Is it? The number of seats is down to the skewed system and their surge is a big story.

 

[Wilf]

Fucking streeting on now, going to have to turn this off.

 

[Pickman's model]

Spot on

The only way is ethics

 

[belboid]

Why can no-one ever spell miniscule properly anymore.

I know one person who can

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Reform deputy leader coming out swinging for PR obviously

Yep, Farage has been open that PR is his next big campaign.

 

[weltweit]

Hoping for a changing of the guard in North East Somerset ..

 

[danny la rouge]

They will. Losing to Labour is a big blow, losing 60-80% is huge.

You’re being a bit weird about this.