Operation pillar of cloud. Israeli assault on Gaza

[DexterTCN]

How long would you say short term is, days, weeks, months? It's been four years since last time and this time didn't go anywhere near the same as last.

It'll be timed for something political, long in advance, just as this was timed (with agreement I'm sure) for the end of the US election.

They thought they had a lot more time, I think the US is un-nerved at the geo-political changes in the area.

 

[dylans]

How long would you say short term is, days, weeks, months? It's been four years since last time and this time didn't go anywhere near the same as last.

It wasn't really 4 years though was it. 4 years since the lunatic violence of cast lead yeah but there has been almost daily low level conflict going on since then and that has included periods of pretty heavy bombing.

If you are asking how long before another orgy of insane violence such as we just saw I think it is pretty likely and soon. Israel have not come out of this well at all. On the one hand we are seeing the limits of their military power. A ground invasion was clearly stopped by the US. That's very significant. It means their hand was stayed and it was stayed because of the changing realities in the region.

On the other hand, Israel didn't achieve any of their strategic aims. Despite their claims to the contrary. They wanted to change the status quo and failed. I can't see them living with that. Therefore, I think it pretty likely then that they will have another go soon. Maybe not a ground invasion, in fact I think there is an argument that the days of a repeat of cast lead are over. but I can see another targeted killing which will provoke a response by the resistance and then lead to another round of bombings soon and by soon I mean in weeks or months. The ball is very much in Israel's court.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The ball is very much in Israel's court.

Is it? I may be misjudging this, but even the BBC changed its emphasis once the bodies started mounting up. Surely there is a strong onus on Israel to hold their fire now.

 

[dylans]

Is it? I may be misjudging this, but even the BBC changed its emphasis once the bodies started mounting up. Surely there is a strong onus on Israel to hold their fire now.

Israel can initiate violence whenever it likes though. They just assassinate someone or shoot some kid who gets too close to the fence and then the Western press will completely ignore that and focus on the resistance rockets that come in response. Then Israel spins its bullshit about Hamas breaking the ceasefire and its need to defend itself and the likes of the BBC and Western political leaders will parrot it without question. We have seen this time and time again.

I agree with you about their being limits to the level of violence Israel can initiate now. But that doesn't mean they can't initiate conflict at a lower level.

 

[DexterTCN]

Mark Thomas did a good article in the indie the other day http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-with-hamas-and-the-palestinians-8335881.html

On one side you've got three generations of a family wiped out. On the other, a woman's got to ring Autoglass. And we act like this is battle whose fate is in the balance

Eloquent as usual.

Some Israeli twunt has written an article today http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-even-battle-in-gaza-is-nonsense-8343590.html

this contains an unbelievable statement, really fucking unbelievable..

There are less Israeli casualties quite simply because they have a greater emphasis on the value of life.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The depressing thing about the 'targeted assassinations' inside Palestinian territory is that Obama set the precedent with bin Laden. My first thought when this started was that they were using this precedent as justification. I still think that would be harder to do again, but hard for the US to criticise it.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

this contains an unbelievable statement, really fucking unbelievable..

That statement betrays the ludicrous lengths people have to go to now to justify Israeli actions. There are some seriously contorting minds out there trying to defend Israel.

 

[Buckaroo]

It wasn't really 4 years though was it. 4 years since the lunatic violence of cast lead yeah but there has been almost daily low level conflict going on since then and that has included periods of pretty heavy bombing.

If you are asking how long before another orgy of insane violence such as we just saw I think it is pretty likely and soon. Israel have not come out of this well at all. On the one hand we are seeing the limits of their military power. A ground invasion was clearly stopped by the US. That's very significant. It means their hand was stayed and it was stayed because of the changing realities in the region.

On the other hand, Israel didn't achieve any of their strategic aims. Despite their claims to the contrary. They wanted to change the status quo and failed. I can't see them living with that. Therefore, I think it pretty likely then that they will have another go soon. Maybe not a ground invasion, in fact I think there is an argument that the days of a repeat of cast lead are over. but I can see another targeted killing which will provoke a response by the resistance and then lead to another round of bombings soon and by soon I mean in weeks or months. The ball is very much in Israel's court.

Do you think they were trying to change the status quo or reinforce it?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Do you think they were trying to change the status quo or reinforce it?

I'm not sure I understand quite what they were trying to do. Perhaps it was simply an attempt to make negotiation for a two-state solution even more impossible so that they could continue colonising the West Bank to an extent that will scupper that solution for good anyway.

I think you might be right, though. Reinforcing the status quo could have been the aim. It strikes me that for Netanyahu, the status quo is the solution. Israel continues to exist, no matter what.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

It wasn't really 4 years though was it. 4 years since the lunatic violence of cast lead yeah but there has been almost daily low level conflict going on since then and that has included periods of pretty heavy bombing.

If you are asking how long before another orgy of insane violence such as we just saw I think it is pretty likely and soon. Israel have not come out of this well at all. On the one hand we are seeing the limits of their military power. A ground invasion was clearly stopped by the US. That's very significant. It means their hand was stayed and it was stayed because of the changing realities in the region.

On the other hand, Israel didn't achieve any of their strategic aims. Despite their claims to the contrary. They wanted to change the status quo and failed. I can't see them living with that. Therefore, I think it pretty likely then that they will have another go soon. Maybe not a ground invasion, in fact I think there is an argument that the days of a repeat of cast lead are over. but I can see another targeted killing which will provoke a response by the resistance and then lead to another round of bombings soon and by soon I mean in weeks or months. The ball is very much in Israel's court.

You're right, my apologies I should have been more thoughtful with my wording. Yes, I mean the extreme end of violence with Israel going on a major military offensive that catches the attention of the world.

 

[dylans]

Do you think they were trying to change the status quo or reinforce it?

I think they were very clearly trying to change it. Hamas now have an enhanced military capacity.They are now in possession of weapons capable of hitting central Israel. Israel wish to eliminate or decrease that capacity. The conflict of the past week is in a way a continuation of a mission that began a few months ago when Israel attacked a weapons depot in Sudan in an attempt to deny Hamas weapons from Iran. They failed. At least part of the motivation for this conflict was to make up for what they see as a serious intelligence failure on their part. Hence it was an attempt to change the status quo back to a period before Hamas gained that increased capacity. They have clearly failed in this too.

 

[dylans]

You're right, my apologies I should have been more thoughtful with my wording. Yes, I mean the extreme end of violence with Israel going on a major military offensive that catches the attention of the world.

I made no secret of my surprise that Israel didn't launch a ground invasion this time. I was really surprised for the simple reason that by negotiating a ceasefire when they did, they left many of their strategic goals in tatters. As I posted above, their attempt to deny Hamas Farj 5s was a failure. Their attempt to destroy the organisational structure of Hamas was a failure. Their attempt to terrorise the people of Gaza into submission was a failure. In fact, as has been said on here, the end of this conflict has had the opposite result to their intentions.

That doesn't sit well with Israel. Israel is a ruthless and merciless combatant and, despite the new reality in the Arab world, despite the pressures from the US etc, I just can't see Israel accepted this result for very long. Its not in Netanyahu's blood to give Hamas a strategic victory. Therefore I think another bloodbath is very likely, even if all indications are that the result of more bloodshed will be the same.

 

[Buckaroo]

I made no secret of my surprise that Israel didn't launch a ground invasion this time. I was really surprised for the simple reason that by negotiating a ceasefire when they did, they left many of their strategic goals in tatters. As I posted above, their attempt to deny Hamas Farj 5s was a failure. Their attempt to destroy the organisational structure of Hamas was a failure. Their attempt to terrorise the people of Gaza into submission was a failure. In fact, as has been said on here, the end of this conflict has had the opposite result to their intentions.

That doesn't sit well with Israel. Israel is a ruthless and merciless combatant and, despite the new reality in the Arab world, despite the pressures from the US etc, I just can't see Israel accepted this result for very long. Its not in Netanyahu's blood to give Hamas a strategic victory. Therefore I think another bloodbath is very likely, even if all indications are that the result of more bloodshed will be the same.

I think you're right dylans, it's going to get worse.

 

[teqniq]

Israel received warnings from Washington and Cairo that its peace treaties with both Egypt and Jordan would be “endangered” if it sent ground forces into Gaza to confront Hamas this week, Israel’s Channel 2 reported Thursday

The warnings played “a central role” in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to agree to a ceasefire on Wednesday without having ordered a much-anticipated ground incursion. The warnings were conveyed to Mossad chief Tamir Pardo, who played a key behind-the-scenes role in the ceasefire talks, the report said.

Channel 2 also reported that Egypt’s President Mohammad Morsi rejected an American request to speak to Netanyahu as he mediated the negotiations that on Wednesday brought eight days of conflict between Israel and Hamas to a halt. So firm was Morsi in rejecting the notion of speaking to his Israeli opposite number, the TV report claimed, that the Americans didn’t even bother telling Netanyahu about their attempt to foster direct contact.

....

http://www.timesofisrael.com/tv-rep...o-end-hamas-assault-with-no-ground-offensive/


This and the IMF loan maybe....

 

[framed]

'Brothers of the 1%' is a phrase that popped up here after Morsi won.

 

[Random]

The depressing thing about the 'targeted assassinations' inside Palestinian territory is that Obama set the precedent with bin Laden. My first thought when this started was that they were using this precedent as justification. I still think that would be harder to do again, but hard for the US to criticise it.

Don't you remember? The Israeli military had been assassinating people like this for about a generation or more http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khalil_al-Wazir

 

[dylans]

Israel have just shot ten teenagers in the West Bank. One dead

Correction. Not in the West Bank. In Gaza

 

[weepiper]

yep

Jon Donnison ‏@JonDonnison
Health Min in #Gaza says 1 man killed & up to 10 injured by Israeli fire near Khan Yunis. IDF says fired warning shots.

 

[Balbi]

Warning to them, or to everyone else? Cue pro-israel people hollering about defence etc - that they shouldn't have been there etc.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Yep, Palestinians in Palestinian territory. Shouldn't have been there, fair game for the IDF, emphasis on what the "D" stands for.

 

[Balbi]

Gaza
A Hamas spokesman accused Israel of violating the Egyptian-mediated truce and said the group would complain to Cairo. after Israeli forces shot dead a Palestinian man in Gaza, Reuters reports. There are conflicting reports about the reason the man and others were in the Khan Younis buffer zone. From Reuters:

Medics said Anwar Qdeih, 23, was hit in the head by Israeli gunfire after he approached the security fence that runs along the Gaza frontier - an area that Israel has long declared a no-go zone for Gazans.

A relative of the dead man, who was at the scene, told Reuters that Qdeih had been trying to place a Hamas flag on the fence. He added that an Israeli soldier had fired into the air three times before Qdeih was hit in the head by a bullet.

Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri said: "We will contact the Egyptian mediator to discuss the incident."

Gaza health official Adnan Abu Salmia told AP Qdeih was part of a group of people who approached Israel's border fence with Gaza to pick up parts of an Israeli army jeep damaged in the fighting.

Israel's military, citing a preliminary investigation, said there have been isolated attempts to infiltrate Israel from Gaza, and that warning shots were fired in the air when the group approached.

IDF spokeswoman Avital Leibovich posted a picture of Palestinians near the border fence.

Avital Leibovich@AvitalLeibovich
Right now in#Gaza side of the border:dozens of Palestinians hurling rocks as they attempt to breach the border fence twitter.com/AvitalLeibovic…
23 Nov 12

In the past, Israeli troops enforced a no-go zone on the Gaza side of the frontier, firing on anyone approaching in an attempt to prevent infiltration attempts. Since the ceasefire, growing numbers of Gazans have entered the zone.

The shooting comes as the Israeli human rights group B'Tselem has written to the IDF "demanding that it be made unequivocally clear to soldiers and commanders in the West Bank that there is an absolute prohibition on shooting live ammunition at stone throwers".

 

[Hocus Eye.]

Mark Thomas did a good article in the indie the other day http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-with-hamas-and-the-palestinians-8335881.html



Eloquent as usual.

Some Israeli twunt has written an article today http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-even-battle-in-gaza-is-nonsense-8343590.html

this contains an unbelievable statement, really fucking unbelievable..

Sorry, this is a bit late, but that article was by Mark Steel not Mark Thomas.

Back to the current topic. Different reports about the shooting dead of a Palestinian say that he was trying to put a Hamas flag on the wall or that he was trying to get hold of a vehicle left behind by the IDF. Either way he and the others who were injured were in the 'buffer zone' that the Israelis have declared on the Gaza side of the border.

 

[likesfish]

Although the idf have small arms sized plastic bullets as well, baton rounds may kill but at least you cant fire them on automatic
Carrying a hamas flag obviously the only response is lethal force.
Rather than maybe waiting and taking the flag down later

The reason for the disparity in casualites is one side has the latest bestest death tech. That arrives by ship or plane
The other side is scrapyard challenge the lethal edition and what ever the iranians can smuggle to them through tunnels.

When you use artillery or naval gunboats words like precision or restraint dont really count.

 

[Balbi]

Two sides here - can hamas be expected to marshal the entire population of Gaza? No.

Can Israel demonstrate restraint? No.

 

[Balbi]

The posted photo shows a load of Palestinian yoot waving their arms and probably chucking rocks. All unarmed, but definitely deliberate incitement at the same time

 

[Balbi]

It's not an accident they're there - but if Israel don't have non-lethal deterrent, then that should be the issue. I's going tit for tat already though. Hamas and Israel both going to Egypt to sort it out, which is nicer than rockettime.

 

[Random]

The Hamas leadership have no interest in spoiling their strategic victory by starting to fire rockets, although the local Khan Younis leaders probably have to be seen to be at the forefront of the youth resistance there. On the other hand, will Iran's Islamic Jihad friends try to make Egypt and Hamas look silly, by trashing the ceasefire? You have to assume that the Hamas security service are keeping a very careful eye on them.

 

[DrRingDing]

A ground invasion was clearly stopped by the US.

I'm not convinced at all.

 

[Random]

I'm not convinced at all.

There are other alternatives. Fear of worsening relations with Egypt, fear of taking casualties against Hamas. Both of those might have come into the picture, but my best guess is that the US pressure was the overwhelming factor.

 

[N_igma]

Belfast today: