Nicola Bulley Missing

[Aladdin]

Police believe that missing mother-of-two Nicola Bulley fell into the river where she vanished, and don't think there was any criminal involvement in her disappearance.​

Officers said in a press conference they believed Ms Bulley was in the riverside area when she went missing and had remained in the area.

Police said their "main working hypothesis" is that she fell into the River Wyre in Lancashire and that "this is not suspicious but a tragic case of a missing person".

Missing mother Nicola Bulley 'fell into river' and her disappearance is 'tragic' but 'not suspicious', police say

Police believe that missing mother-of-two Nicola Bulley fell into the river where she vanished, and don't think there was any criminal involvement in her disappearance.

www.google.com

 

[Cid]

For what it's worth amateur psychologising - particularly by the police - has likely caused extensive harm to everyone from non-neurotypical types to people who are just in shock. It's evidence of fuck all except that the powerful are convinced the way they've always done things is the way things should be done.

 

[kebabking]

Wild speculation?

She needed a wee after sitting on a cold bench. She's left the phone on the bench where it will get a signal and gone off into the bushes by the river for a 30 second tinkle. She's taken a tumble and gone into the river, and unfortunately for he she's got her trousers round her knees so her ability to either stop herself, or climb out, is severely restricted.

If she was lucky, she'll have hit her head on the way down and reduced her understanding of what was happening.

Cold shock and violently moving water will have done the rest.

 

[Aladdin]

Another question why was the phone left on the bench?

No..that was not my question.

How do they know that the phone was left on the bench at 9.20 ?

How do they know that at 9.20 she put her phone on the bench?
Mic and camera were both off.
So....???

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Pretty standard to have your mic muted on Teams call if you don’t expect to be speaking.

 

[Pickman's model]

Pretty standard to have your mic muted on Teams call if you don’t expect to be speaking.

and in many cases even if you do expect to be speaking

 

[Spymaster]

No..that was not my question.

How do they know that the phone was left on the bench at 9.20 ?

How do they know that at 9.20 she put her phone on the bench?
Mic and camera were both off.
So....???

GPS

 

[Elpenor]

Whenever it’s a big meeting mikes are automatically muted aren’t they?

This being a 9am call it’s quite possibly a morning huddle style meeting where a manager for the department disseminates information where the other participants simply listen

 

[Pickman's model]

Whenever it’s a big meeting mikes are automatically muted aren’t they?

This being a 9am call it’s quite possibly a morning huddle style meeting where a manager for the department disseminates information where the other participants simply listen

ignore what's being said

 

[Aladdin]

GPS

What's the difference between GPS of her sat on the bench with her phone in her hand and GPS of the phone on its own on bench?

 

[Pickman's model]

What's the difference between GPS of her sat on the bench with her phone in her hand and GPS of the phone on its own on bench?

her of course

 

[ElizabethofYork]

Perhaps you need to watch more ITV crime dramas to improve your skills

I'll be sure to watch Happy Valley much more closely than usual on Sunday.

 

[platinumsage]

What's the difference between GPS of her sat on the bench with her phone in her hand and GPS of the phone on its own on bench?

Phones have gyroscopes, cameras, pressure sensors, all sorts.

If the phone was found on the bench at a known time I imagine it wouldn't be too difficult to establish that it hadn't moved at all for a certain period.

 

[Aladdin]

Phones have gyroscopes, cameras, pressure sensors, all sorts.

If the phone was found on the bench at a known time I imagine it wouldn't be too difficult to establish that it hadn't moved at all for a certain period.

Ok. That makes a lot of sense.
Thanks.

 

[kebabking]

What's the difference between GPS of her sat on the bench with her phone in her hand and GPS of the phone on its own on bench?

Your phone has a magnetometer with allows it to know what direction it's pointed - which is how stargazing and viewfinder apps work. Examining the records will be able to she when it was in your hand, and therefore at an angle and moving about,and when it was placed flat on a bench.

 

[Pickman's model]

Your phone has a magnetometer with allows it to know what direction it's pointed - which is how stargazing and viewfinder apps work. Examining the records will be able to she when it was in your hand, and therefore at an angle and moving about,and when it was placed flat on a bench.

and of course if there was any excessive movement between the two states

 

[sheothebudworths]

What's the difference between GPS of her sat on the bench with her phone in her hand and GPS of the phone on its own on bench?

Might have been 'at' bench - as opposed to in the field where she was prior to that.

A pretty plausible guess at possibilities I saw could be that she was trying to retrieve a ball she had been chucking about/her dog was playing with on the bank, while she'd been sat on the bench listening to the meeting.

Way more likely to have been an awful accident than anything sinister and totally likely that her body wouldn't have been found yet - and I really hope her family have managed to avoid all the horrendous speculation going on around her disappearance while they are clearly shocked and just trying to cling on to hope that she is ok.

 

[savoloysam]

May be a stupid question...but..
How do they know the phone was on the bench at 9.20?

Location tracking via GPS and cell towers can be scarily accurate to a very fine margin.

 

[Aladdin]

Her dad said this ... a couple of days ago..

Parents of missing dog walker Nicola Bulley fear ‘somebody got her’

Lancashire woman last seen on towpath on Friday, with her spaniel later found alone nearby

www.theguardian.com

Ernest said: “There was no sign of a slip or falling in so our thought was, ‘has somebody got her’? I asked the sergeant from Fleetwood a few days ago ‘is there any chance of her being taken’, and she said: ‘I don’t think that’s the case.’
“I said, ‘how can you know that?’. It’s such an isolated area, the only way that has happened is if it was someone who knew her.”


What I dont quite understand is why the police seem to have ruled out abduction and / or murder so quickly. They've gone straight for accident or disappearance.

 

[savoloysam]

What's the difference between GPS of her sat on the bench with her phone in her hand and GPS of the phone on its own on bench?

Your typical smart phone has all sorts of sensors inside. Analysis could easily show when it was being used by hand or just sitting idle

 

[platinumsage]

What I dont quite understand is why the police seem to have ruled out abduction and / or murder so quickly. They've gone straight for accident or disappearance.

Multiple witnesses saw her, and they checked multiple cameras covering routes there. If these don't reveal any unaccounted-for person, then it would be reasonable to conclude that an attacker accessing that area undetected would be highly unlikely.

 

[sheothebudworths]

Her dad said this ... a couple of days ago..

Ernest said: “There was no sign of a slip or falling in so our thought was, ‘has somebody got her’? I asked the sergeant from Fleetwood a few days ago ‘is there any chance of her being taken’, and she said: ‘I don’t think that’s the case.’
“I said, ‘how can you know that?’. It’s such an isolated area, the only way that has happened is if it was someone who knew her.”


What I dont quite understand is why the police seem to have ruled out abduction and / or murder so quickly. They've gone straight for accident or disappearance.

I don't think that is the same as ruling it out - more that a sudden disappearance next to a fast flowing river, with no reports of anyone acting suspiciously nearby etc, is always way more likely to be an accident than anything else.

 

[Aladdin]

Also..Springer Spaniels tend to really like water. They're not afraid of it or of getting wet.
The fact that the dog was dry points to them not going into the water... which they surely would have done if they knew their owner had fallen into a river.

It's an awful thing to have someone go missing. There was a recent case here where a mum went missing. She was last seen at a seaside location and was supposed to meet someone there. A month later her body was found 25 miles along the coast from where she was last seen. Reports made at the time suggested she had killed herself.

 

[Aladdin]

Multiple witnesses saw her, and they checked multiple cameras covering routes there. If these don't reveal any unaccounted-for person, then it would be reasonable to conclude that an attacker accessing that area undetected would be highly unlikely.

Is it a countryside location?
I thought this was a remote place.

 

[Cid]

Also..Springer Spaniels tend to really like water. They're not afraid of it or of getting wet.
The fact that the dog was dry points to them not going into the water... which they surely would have done if they knew their owner had fallen into a river.

It's an awful thing to have someone go missing. There was a recent case here where a mum went missing. She was last seen at a seaside location and was supposed to meet someone there. A month later her body was found 25 miles along the coast from where she was last seen. Reports made at the time suggested she had killed herself.

I think you're just filling in gaps in what is probably scant evidence even for the police tbh. There are any number of possible scenarios that could have happened within the basic fact pattern.

 

[platinumsage]

Is it a countryside location?
I thought this was a remote place.

It’s a field on the edge of a village, you can only get to it by either walking through the village or swimming across the river.

 

[PR1Berske]

St Michael's on Wyre is, perhaps obvious by the name, a small and compact village outside Garstang in central Lancashire, up the A6 corridor from Preston. It's very rural, very "everybody knows everybody". The impact on the locals once the media pisses off will be interesting to study, this won't leave them for years. Think there's only one pub in the village, barely any buses, it's that kind of place.

 

[xenon]

Maybe the dog slipped out of it's harness or it got caught on something at the top of the river bank. She releases the dog but loses footing, falls in holding the harness / lead. It's horrible to speculate really but yeah, this story plays on your mind.

 

[Pickman's model]

.

 

[Numbers]

.

Never thought of that, great point.