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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Yesterday, livemap had a claim that the UKR had splashed a Mainstay and badly damaged an Il-22M [command post] over the Sea of Azov.
The latter seems to have landed at Anapa and been imaged.
 
Medvedev has been on the sauce again…

Why Ukraine is dangerous for its inhabitants.

The existence of Ukraine is mortally dangerous for Ukrainians. And I don't mean only the current state, Bandera's political regime. I'm talking about any, absolutely any Ukraine.

Why? The presence of an independent state on historical Russian territories will now be a constant reason for the resumption of hostilities. Late. No matter who is at the helm of the cancerous growth under the name of Ukraine, this will not add legitimacy to his rule and the legal viability of the "country" itself. And, therefore, the likelihood of a new fight will persist indefinitely. Almost always. Moreover, there is a 100% probability of a new conflict, no matter what security papers the West signs with the puppet Kyiv regime. Neither Ukraine's association with the EU, nor even the entry of this artificial country into NATO will prevent it. This could happen in ten or fifty years.

That is why the existence of Ukraine is fatal for Ukrainians. They are practical people at the end of the day. No matter how they now wish the Russians to die. No matter how much they hate the Russian leadership. No matter how much they strive to join the mythical European Union and NATO. Choosing between eternal war and inevitable death and life, the vast majority of Ukrainians (well, perhaps with the exception of a minimal number of frostbitten nationalists) will ultimately choose life. They will understand that life in a large common state, which they do not like very much now, is better than death. Their deaths and the deaths of their loved ones. And the sooner Ukrainians realise this the better.

Anyway, it’s all NATO’s fault or something.
 
Interview with Arestovych in which whilst we might understand who he is speaking to, you have to wonder for whom he is speaking.

For whom do you think he might be speaking?

Bits that stood out to me included:
US selfish gains focused on "mostly the titanium industry and lithium industry"

"four and a half million men, around half of the whole fighting age male population of Ukraine, had avoided registering at the recruitment centre"

the stuff about a peace deal existing and possibly Boris Johnson skewering it...
 
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For whom do you think he likes that be speaking?

Bits that stood out to me included:
US selfish gains focused on "mostly the titanium industry and lithium industry"

"four and a half million men, around half of the whole fighting age male population of Ukraine, had avoided registering at the recruitment centre"

the stuff about a peace deal existing and possibly Boris Johnson skewering it...

He seems to be a bit of a mind game person /big tent stuff , traditionally has gone down well with the Russian speaking constituency . I'm not entirely sure whether he is speaking as a candidate or as someone who could be useful to a candidate.
 
Another 'who dunnit' . Posters might remember last year when the Russian pro war military blogger was blown up in St. Petersburg by a 'gift' delivered by a young woman. The young woman on trial , has said that she was offered a passage to Ukraine and a job as a journalist by someone from the Ukranian Intelligence . Darya Trepova said she was acting under orders from a man in Ukraine whom she knew as "Gestalt" whom she was introduced to by a Ukraine based far right activist called Roman Popov. 'Gestatlt' had been sending her messages and money with instructions for some months .

Her husband has written an open letter in which he asks Kyiv-based Russian far right activist Roman Popkov to admit that he duped Trepova into delivering the bomb. Popkov, telling her she was to deliver to the venue what she was told was a tracking device. Popov, the former leader of the National Bolsheviks , denies any involvement and says although he knew Trepova from Twitter ( she followed his accounts) that the Russians have made Trepova come up with this story.
 
Another 'who dunnit' . Posters might remember last year when the Russian pro war military blogger was blown up in St. Petersburg by a 'gift' delivered by a young woman. The young woman on trial , has said that she was offered a passage to Ukraine and a job as a journalist by someone from the Ukranian Intelligence . Darya Trepova said she was acting under orders from a man in Ukraine whom she knew as "Gestalt" whom she was introduced to by a Ukraine based far right activist called Roman Popov. 'Gestatlt' had been sending her messages and money with instructions for some months .

Her husband has written an open letter in which he asks Kyiv-based Russian far right activist Roman Popkov to admit that he duped Trepova into delivering the bomb. Popkov, telling her she was to deliver to the venue what she was told was a tracking device. Popov, the former leader of the National Bolsheviks , denies any involvement and says although he knew Trepova from Twitter ( she followed his accounts) that the Russians have made Trepova come up with this story.
Pearoast from the African Cup of Nations thread :mad:
 
Any obvious suggestions what happened with the attacks in Donetsk?
We probably aren't going to know with any certainty for some time to come, but Russia does have a track record on false flag attacks (as well as opportunistically flinging blame around, per the recent fires at Bilhorod), so I think we can't rule that out. Added to which, Ukraine has hitherto appeared to go to some degree of trouble not to hit civilian targets, which is very much not the case with Russia, who have launched entire campaigns aimed at civilians.
 
War is shit and even the most careful military is going to hit something it shouldn’t.


And neither side seems to be particularly careful when it comes to the loss of human life.

There were plenty of claims before the war about civilian casualties resulting from Ukrainian military attacks upon the Russian occupied zone of Ukraine. I don't know what reliable evidence exists to either confirm refute those claims.
 
And neither side seems to be particularly careful when it comes to the loss of human life.

There were plenty of claims before the war about civilian casualties resulting from Ukrainian military attacks upon the Russian occupied zone of Ukraine. I don't know what reliable evidence exists to either confirm refute those claims.


One side is definitely more careful than the other one
 
Sadly, the russians have form for [probably] blowing up POWs ...

Also seems a bit suspect that they were flying POWs around, don't they usually use fleets of coaches ?
 
There's plenty of propaganda on both sides on this one so it's hard to know what to believe. Things I've seen, but have no way of proving:

From the Russian side...
Ukraine initially claimed responsibility then changed all the news headlines when the POW story came out.
Russia often uses transport planes to bring the POWs close to the front, then loads them on buses for the final leg
Previously released POWs have confirmed that this type of plane was used by Russia when they were transported for release
Ukraine knew about the transfer in advance

From the Ukranian side...
Russian plane previously took off from Iran so was probably full of missiles
It was taking off from Belgorod so can't have had the POWs inside

Either is possible, so I suspect this will be something we never hear the truth on.
 
Ukraine knew about the transfer in advance
sadly it does look like ukraine shot it down, theyve complained that they werent told of POW transfer and a request for safe passage as usually happens in such cases (“Kyiv also blamed Moscow for not informing it of transport arrangements for [the] prisoner swap and for flying POWs so close to an active war zone,” McBride reported. Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency had confirmed a swap was meant to take place, but said it had not been told of how Russia would bring the prisoners to the handover point and said Ukraine had not been asked to ensure airspace security around Belgorod.) ...and above all there were numerous reports from Ukraine military that they shot it down, until there weren't of course.
 
More likely the Ukrainians shot the plane down and then the Russians decided it had been stuffed full of Ukrainian POWs.

I don't want to shock anyone but, you know, the Russians have been known to be less than completely honest on occasions.
thats possible, though as fez says "Previously released POWs have confirmed that this type of plane was used by Russia when they were transported for release and Ukraine knew about the transfer in advance", just weren't notified of that particular flight timing detail
 
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