Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[The39thStep]

The corporate donors aren't hard to find...

Institute for the Study of War

A bunch of defence, finance & tech companies.

They don't publish names of individual donors.

ISW clearly have their biases. Just have a look at their 'Iran Updates' to see their coverage of Israel-Gaza, which is solidly from the Israeli pov. Just like their Ukraine coverage is solidly pro-Ukranian.

But that doesn't mean that they're without value when it comes to the updates on the various conflicts they cover. Those defense contractors and finance companies want accurate information to base their corporate decisions on. And ISW provide a level of detail that few others sources provide. Just be aware of what their biases are and think twice when looking at their analysis.

Thanks. I agree with most of what you say here. They clearly represent the interests of their donors/client base which are defence/arms contractors . Interestingly, although some may say predictably, their chair opposed the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Politically they are neo-cons. I wouldn't necessarily dismiss the value or the validity of their data because of that lens. However, the best description I have found of them is ' The War According to Our Side' ( courtesy Responsible Statecraft).

 

[emanymton]

They want to help improve the USA's ability to pursue military operations, internationally, and they want those operations to be focused on US interests.
That is absolutely a partisan line even if you're only taking about "within the USA". It's not a line that all people in the USA would support. It's a political position.

Non-partisan is a well know phrase in US politics mensing not siding with either Democrats or Republicans.

Yes you can pedantically pick the phrase apart but it is not unique to them and it does not change the fact that the meaning and intent is clear.

 

[emanymton]

Thanks. I agree with most of what you say here. They clearly represent the interests of their donors/client base which are defence/arms contractors . Interestingly, although some may say predictably, their chair opposed the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Politically they are neo-cons. I wouldn't necessarily dismiss the value or the validity of their data because of that lens. However, the best description I have found of them is ' The War According to Our Side' ( courtesy Responsible Statecraft).

The bastards don't lie to themselves as someone was said to me. It is not completely true of course, but they did need accurate information and that has value as long as you remember the source.

 

[Dogsauce]

Tbh the ISW aren’t that good, there are quicker sources of information on the war, they don’t have any secret backchannels or anything, analysis is quite cautious tending to be the same stuff some of the OSINT guys find but a few days later once they’ve double checked and verified. Language is a bit dry and repetitive, I don’t know how many times last year they told us the Russians had ‘culminated’ or how soon they’d be out of artillery. They do get quoted in a lot of western press because they sound authoritative.

 

[spring-peeper]

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Perhaps you think it'll be like the Korean war, a conflict that's never formally ended.

IMO that’s not too far fetched.

A very hard border along the lines of where they currently are with Russia’s defences in Ukraine seemingly too much for the Ukrainians to surmount, US and European defence of that border and economic support to rebuild and boost what’s left of Ukraine, the Russian part will just be left to fester until such time as Russia moves on, which could be when Putin dies or much, much later.

 

[The39thStep]

IMO that’s not too far fetched.

A very hard border along the lines of where they currently are with Russia’s defences in Ukraine seemingly too much for the Ukrainians to surmount, US and European defence of that border and economic support to rebuild and boost what’s left of Ukraine, the Russian part will just be left to fester until such time as Russia moves on, which could be when Putin dies or much, much later.

I think the regeneration prospects for the occupied areas will be mixed to say the least. Although house building in some areas has been part of the war economy benefits , there are many areas where the population size is now so small that there will be no mass new build.

 

[emanymton]

IMO that’s not too far fetched.

A very hard border along the lines of where they currently are with Russia’s defences in Ukraine seemingly too much for the Ukrainians to surmount, US and European defence of that border and economic support to rebuild and boost what’s left of Ukraine, the Russian part will just be left to fester until such time as Russia moves on, which could be when Putin dies or much, much later.

That's been the most likely outcome was we got past the first few months hasn't it?

Much as I would like to see Russia forced out completely I don't see how it can happen and the war now is about how much land each side will have in the end.

 

[Dogsauce]

I think the regeneration prospects for the occupied areas will be mixed to say the least. Although house building in some areas has been part of the war economy benefits , there are many areas where the population size is now so small that there will be no mass new build.

They’ve been moving thousands of people from Russia’s far east into cities like Mariopul, basically getting ‘facts on the ground’ like certain other colonising wankers I could mention.

 

[The39thStep]

They’ve been moving thousands of people from Russia’s far east into cities like Mariopul, basically getting ‘facts on the ground’ like certain other colonising wankers I could mention.

Mariopul has been their biggest new build.Properties and land are sold as 'homes by the sea'. Their construction industry despite suffering from some initial raw material shortages due to sanctions is seen as experiencing a revival across Russia.

 

[TopCat]

Zelenskiy says Ukraine has become stronger as war moves towards its second year

New Year’s address made almost no direct reference to the situation on the 1,000-km front line or the limited success of a counteroffensive

www.theguardian.com

This made depressing reading for me. He seems disconnected from reality.

 

[ska invita]

The most interesting bit of this article
"Army conscription becomes toxic issue for Ukraine’s leaders"

https://archive.ph/dITdv

in the FT for me is that there appears to be significant breakdown of trust between Zelensky and head of the military Zaluzhny...

"Zaluzhny’s appearance to explain the mobilisation drive was necessary, says Mariia Zolkina of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation think-tank in Kyiv, because Ukraine’s “political authorities attempted to distance themselves from this step and redirect responsibility to military leadership”. Blaming the army for a potentially unpopular move was “destructive and wrong”, Zolkina wrote on X.

Relations between Zelenskyy and his top military commander were tense even before autumn, when the failure of Ukraine’s counteroffensive sparked rumours of the general’s imminent dismissal. Some military officers say differences over strategy and tactics are to be expected in a gruelling conflict. But some in Zelenskyy’s circle see Zaluzhny, who is highly popular with the Ukrainian public, as a potential political rival."

...hard not to see it as Zaluzhny living in reality and Zelensky in dreamland ~ which matches the new year message

 

[The39thStep]

A little more on the IT side of Ukraine's new conscription data base

"We will see, for example, that a citizen was registered in Kyiv, but now he works in Lviv because the tax on his salary - personal income tax - is paid to the Lychakiv district of Lviv. Accordingly, then it will be a simple matter of addressing the owner of his company, of any form of ownership, that this citizen needs to come to the Lychakiv TRC of Lviv. And the head of the enterprise will be obliged to personally deliver this person liable for military service to the Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center," says Volodymyr Fitio."

Ukraine launches military obligations registry: How it will affect mobilization

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[TopCat]

A little more on the IT side of Ukraine's new conscription data base

"We will see, for example, that a citizen was registered in Kyiv, but now he works in Lviv because the tax on his salary - personal income tax - is paid to the Lychakiv district of Lviv. Accordingly, then it will be a simple matter of addressing the owner of his company, of any form of ownership, that this citizen needs to come to the Lychakiv TRC of Lviv. And the head of the enterprise will be obliged to personally deliver this person liable for military service to the Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Center," says Volodymyr Fitio."

Ukraine launches military obligations registry: How it will affect mobilization

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

That’s an alarming amalgamation of state held data.

 

[The39thStep]

That’s an alarming amalgamation of state held data.

and the project isn't finished yet. Be interesting to know which companies worked on developing it .

 

[sleaterkinney]

Zelenskiy says Ukraine has become stronger as war moves towards its second year

New Year’s address made almost no direct reference to the situation on the 1,000-km front line or the limited success of a counteroffensive

www.theguardian.com

This made depressing reading for me. He seems disconnected from reality.

It's a stupid article, was Churchill know for his realism?

 

[tommers]

That’s an alarming amalgamation of state held data.

It's just tax records?

 

[The39thStep]

It's just tax records?

Nope, if you read the article

 

[tommers]

Nope, if you read the article

Busted.

 

[existentialist]

Zelenskiy says Ukraine has become stronger as war moves towards its second year

New Year’s address made almost no direct reference to the situation on the 1,000-km front line or the limited success of a counteroffensive

www.theguardian.com

This made depressing reading for me. He seems disconnected from reality.

He is.

From YOUR reality, anyway. But then you seem to share your reality with Putin

 

[gosub]

That’s an alarming amalgamation of state held data.

Could be worse

War-torn Ukraine embraces crypto

The war in Ukraine has accelerated the legalisation of cryptocurrency within the country's financial system.

www.eiu.com

CBDC's ...don't even have to give you a pint with a shilling in it

 

[yield]

Hasn't Russia and India had a 'special relationship' for donkey years , pre-Modi?

That appears to be news to Isabel Oakeshott

It’s time to rethink our relations with India. It is getting too close to Russia
Telegraph 29 December 2023

“The world is not what it was. The global order will have to change,” (Lavrov) mused, acknowledging Moscow’s determination to bring about a “multipolar order,” in which Russia – (and presumably India too) will be more powerful. To that end, the men are working on several joint projects.

But far worse was to come, as the pair said they had discussed plans to cooperate on the production of modern weaponry. Doubtless, the fruit of such an approach would be bad news for Ukraine. It is hard to imagine a more shameless two fingers to the West, or overstate the significance of this announcement, which blows a hole in India’s purported neutrality over the conflict. It seems India’s premier, Narendra Modi, has chosen a side – and it is not ours.

 

[TopCat]

Ukraine and Russia announce largest prisoner swap since start of war

Both sides release more than 200 troops in first exchange since August after UAE-mediated negotiations

www.theguardian.com

 

[The39thStep]

That appears to be news to Isabel Oakeshott

It’s time to rethink our relations with India. It is getting too close to Russia
Telegraph 29 December 2023

Isn't her speciality grassing up members of the political circle she feeds off rather than foreign policy?

 

[The39thStep]

Could have perhaps just said congrats and left it at that?

Zelensky hails Argentina's 'new beginning' at Milei inauguration

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday congratulated Argentina's new President Javier Milei while attending an inauguration ceremony in Buenos Aires, where he met with several South American…

www.france24.com

 

[Idris2002]

IMO that’s not too far fetched.

A very hard border along the lines of where they currently are with Russia’s defences in Ukraine seemingly too much for the Ukrainians to surmount, US and European defence of that border and economic support to rebuild and boost what’s left of Ukraine, the Russian part will just be left to fester until such time as Russia moves on, which could be when Putin dies or much, much later.

Problem with the analogy is that the border dividing Best and Other Korea is about 250km in length, and from one side of a peninsula to another. Using the current lines as the basis for a ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine may be a bit more challenging.

 

[existentialist]

Problem with the analogy is that the border dividing Best and Other Korea is about 250km in length, and from one side of a peninsula to another. Using the current lines as the basis for a ceasefire line in eastern Ukraine may be a bit more challenging.

Also worth pointing out that the DMZ in Korea was enforced with very substantial support from the USA, of a kind there seems to be little stomach for in Ukraine's case.

I think a ceasefire would, in the longer term, be a complete and utter disaster: Russia would simply take its time to resource itself, and reinvade. This time, taking no chances - it would be brutal to the point of making this invasion look like a polite social call.

 

[emanymton]

That appears to be news to Isabel Oakeshott

It’s time to rethink our relations with India. It is getting too close to Russia
Telegraph 29 December 2023

India is in an awkward situation. Its major rival is China, if they distance themselves from Russia they risk facing a Russian and China alliance against them. But if they distance themselves from "the west" too much and that happens anyway they are left isolated. So they are trying to keep a foot in both camps as much as they can.

And that is not even considering the economic ties to the west.

So for the time being diplomats and politicians in the west (the ones with sense anyway) will keep trying to keep India onside and not worry too much about signs of cozying up to Russia as they understood the game they are playing.

 

[The39thStep]

Korea




Ukraine/Russia

 

[PTK]

Korea




Ukraine/Russia

What are the numbers?