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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Sounds as if there is a bit of a showdown going on over EU commitment to supporting Ukraine.


Ukraine's foreign minister said it would be "devastating" for his country and the EU if the Dec. 14-15 summit did not the go-ahead for membership talks and more financial and military aid for Kyiv to defend itself against Russia's invasion.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who boasts about his ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin, has threatened to veto the aid and enlargement talks.

Other EU states, including richest member Germany, have said they back starting negotiations with Kyiv on the long process of joining the bloc, but Budapest dug in its heels.

"A majority of European politicians want to make such important decisions which are entirely unprepared and lack strategic agreement on the future of Europe," Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto wrote on Facebook before a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels that will help prepare the summit.

"We will not give in to any pressure ... irrespective of where that is coming from, from whom, and what kind of blackmail it is or promise."

Hungary is not at odds with its EU partners for the first time. It watered down sanctions against Russia and last December vetoed a deal to grant Ukraine 18 billion euros ($19.4 billion) in 2023.

Budapest eventually allowed that assistance through after haggling for days over EU aid to Hungary, which had been blocked over concerns of democratic backsliding under Orban.

Hopefully they get it done.
 
Sounds as if there is a bit of a showdown going on over EU commitment to supporting Ukraine.




Hopefully they get it done.

There is a wider issue of EU enlargement in general which also comes into this. Some states are pushing the need for reform before enlargement, some want their grant income protected, and others are eyeing up the potential for exports to an expanded EU. Views on Ukraine joining as a 'special favour' ahead of other applicants are mixed, not that they can't be traded off , and in the case of three Eastern states states they will require long term protection from Ukrainian wheat exports.

I suspect there will be the usual set of fudges from the EU but they won't come cheaply.
 
New military strategy being sought by USA and Ukraine

"The United States is stepping up the face-to-face military advice it provides to Ukraine, dispatching a three-star general to Kyiv to spend considerable time on the ground. U.S. and Ukrainian military officers say they hope to work out the details of a new strategy next month in a series of war games scheduled to be held in Wiesbaden, Germany.

The Americans are pushing for a conservative strategy that focuses on holding the territory Ukraine has, digging in and building up supplies and forces over the course of the year. The Ukrainians want to go on the attack, either on the ground or with long-range strikes, with the hopes of seizing the world’s attention."


My link wasn't paywalled but just in case

 
Don't piss off the Ukrainians :eek:


Cyber units of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence attacked the tax system of Russia and managed to destroy the entire database and its backup copies. The intelligence adds that Russia will not be able to resuscitate its tax system fully.

Source: Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

Quote: "During the special operation, military spies managed to break into one of the well-protected key central servers of the Federal Taxation Service (FTS of the Russian Federation), and then into more than 2,300 of its regional servers throughout Russia, as well as on the territory of temporarily occupied Crimea.

As a result of the cyberattack, all servers were infected with malware...

The Russians have been unsuccessfully trying to restore the work of the Russian tax authorities for the fourth day in a row. The experts say the paralysis in the work of the Federal Taxation Service of the Russian Federation will last at least a month. At the same time, resuscitation of the tax system of the aggressor state in full is impossible."
Reportedly, managed to completely destroy the configuration files that for years ensured the functioning of the extensive tax system of the Russian Federation – the entire database and its backups were destroyed as a result of two cyberattacks.

Communication between the central office in Moscow and 2,300 Russian territorial administrations is paralysed, as well as between the Federal Taxation Service of the Russian Federation and Office.ed-it.ru, a tax data centre (data bank).
 
Don't piss off the Ukrainians :eek:


Apparently Russia hacked the Ukrainian mobile grid for a few hours so it's good to see they can't even better the Ukrainians at hacking
 
Don't come the "both sides" nonsense - we're not that stupid.

It's been clear from the start where your allegiances lie.
Even if myself and millions of others who don’t support the Ukrainians changed our minds and became full throated NATO supporters, it would matter for nothing.

The reality on the ground will only worsen.

Ukraine has little to look forward to. Smashed up, in debt, terrible demographics.

How would you advise the Ukrainians right now?
 
It’s not like Gaza at all. Apart from the western support of course.

Apart from the it's Hamas' / NATO's fault.
Apart from the brutality, the war crimes, the obvious propaganda. We're fighting nazis!
Apart from the huge difference in power, size. Apart from the history of being colonised and controlled.

Totally different.
 
Apart from the it's Hamas' / NATO's fault.
Apart from the brutality, the war crimes, the obvious propaganda. We're fighting nazis!
Apart from the huge difference in power, size. Apart from the history of being colonised and controlled.

Totally different.
Why do you think the US supports the aggressor in one conflict and the attacked in the other?
 
But again I ask, how would you lot (and for you lot just add up the people who have thrown insults and death threats at me) advise the Ukrainians now?
I'd advise them to give up and let Russia win. What could possibly go wrong?
 
That’s quite jaw dropping. The US supplies the weapons to, on one hand the aggressor and on the other the attacked. Without the weapons neither conflict could be prosecuted in the way they have been.

The US are in fact front left and centre to both conflicts.

Yes it's all about the USA :thumbs:
 
Sarcasm and projection.

I would expect better to be fair. Given the urging on of the Ukrainians I think it’s deserved.

Not sarcasm. I can't see how Ukraine can win, any more. I'd rather see the killing stop.

I'm wary of what Putin will do next as a result of Russia coming out on top here, but can it be worse?

If I'm projecting then pray tell, what's your ideal outcome?
 
I'd advise them to give up and let Russia win. What could possibly go wrong?
As posted upthread current US advise is moving to effectively recognise Ukraine has lost the south and to dig in and hold what it has, as the Russians have, and effectively make a new hard border based on fortifications. In terms of the goal of reclaiming the annexed land that is 'giving up'.

The stalemate will be formalised militarily whilst the politics of EU and NATO ascension catches ups

From my perspective its been two years already like this, this reality has been apparent for at the very least the last year when Mark Milley was signaling now was the time to negotiate.

That Guardian editorial talking about a need to switch to realism over enthusiasm if fucking insane:
...wars are not won by enthusiasm, they are always matters of cold realism...the enthusiasm over reality has been obscene and deadly
 
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