ska invita
back on the other side
same thinking in the EU according the FT
EU budget dispute threatens €50bn war lifeline for Ukraine
Bloc’s leaders embroiled in financial row that risks leaving Kyiv empty-handed at crucial moment in conflict
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
ska invita
back on the other side
I was talking to a Polish woman (in London) recently, someone very anti-Russian, and she had an opinion I've not heard said before outside of pacifist voices (for whom the argument has a different angle), which was it would've been better if Zelensky had run and let Russia roll in and take the country. All it would've done is restore a Russian stooge at the top - what the Kremlin really wanted, and nothing new for Ukrainian politics....essentially a return to Yanukovych in 2014.
Ukraine would've kept its borders, hundreds of thousands would be alive, millions wouldn't have had to flee, cities and villages would still be standing and a perpetual future war would've been avoided.
It is interesting to think about and very quickly opens up a much bigger conversation both about methods of resistance and wider geopolitical competition.
Ukraine would've kept its borders, hundreds of thousands would be alive, millions wouldn't have had to flee, cities and villages would still be standing and a perpetual future war would've been avoided.
It is interesting to think about and very quickly opens up a much bigger conversation both about methods of resistance and wider geopolitical competition.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Perun's latest video (they're podcasts really - not much to see on screen but summary powerpoint slides) is a good one on these topics (manpower and equipment reserves, economic aid and "the will to fight").
tl;dr: Support for Zelenskyy and the war in Ukraine remains high, while the effects of the war are insulated from the segments of the Russian population whose opinion matters to Putin, which is effectively the same thing in terms of popular support. Both sides have challenges of differing types replenishing men & material. Some interesting stats re the age profile of both armies. Ukraine's prospects are almost entirely dependent on the scale/scope of foreign aid. Putin's "sweat them out" strategy will work if U.S. domestic politics swing in his favour.
tl;dr: Support for Zelenskyy and the war in Ukraine remains high, while the effects of the war are insulated from the segments of the Russian population whose opinion matters to Putin, which is effectively the same thing in terms of popular support. Both sides have challenges of differing types replenishing men & material. Some interesting stats re the age profile of both armies. Ukraine's prospects are almost entirely dependent on the scale/scope of foreign aid. Putin's "sweat them out" strategy will work if U.S. domestic politics swing in his favour.
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TopCat
Putin fanboy
What did it say about current average age of the Ukrainian armed forces? Is was listed at 43 but that was last week.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
In depth article on the issues surrounding the Ukrainian counter offensive. Much more detail than uk media.
twistedAM
Left Of The Dial
I've heard similar.
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
The relevant section starts at 25:45.
A couple of factors are at play
First, both Ukraine and Russia have similar demographic pyramids, with a steep decline in births following the collapse of the USSR.
Ruling out retirees and children, the average age of the "fighting" population is already 41.
Second, the UKR army has exemptions from mobilisation for people without military experience between the ages of 18 and 27.
This means that the army's pre-war cohort of young contract soldiers has not been replenished with conscripts of similar age, pushing the average higher.
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_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Are there any estimates of the proportion of young uns that have been exempted?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
resistance in those circumstances is something which nato, and in particular the American special operations command, has thought a fair bit about at eg a conference in Estonia some years ago Dashboard joint special operations university publication on small state resistance and unconventional warfare
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Not in the video
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
For those here who are strong supporters of Russia, how do you see the next year going?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
speaking personally i'm very much looking forward to the next year as all my ducks are lining up very nicely. but for people in ukraine and russia things may be far from rosy over the next 12 months.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i don't think the russians have entirely endeared themselves to the ukrainians and so it's unlikely that ceasing their resistance - futile or otherwise - is going to be on the cards
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Well would you encourage the Russians to continue?
Fez909
toilet expert
When the jets arrive, maybe?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
It’s a big maybe. How many jets would be needed to make a strategic difference? Are they likely to get that number?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
The Washington Post has published a really good, in depth article on the counter offensive. Much better than the Drek in our newspapers.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Short answer: They can't. Best hope is that the Russians get tired of the rather extreme loss ratio they've been posting and the battle line gets drawn permanently and turns into the next NK/SK border.
It's a pretty pessimistic view, but I think it's also rational. Yes, at the current rate Russia would burn themselves out in another 18 months, but they're unlikely to keep staging suicidal attacks if they actually start to run low on the basics. There's zero chance Russia will cede an inch of land they stand on, no matter what the situation is. Which means the only way to move the border closer to its old line is for Ukraine to have success on the attack. Which isn't zero chance, but it's a cold day in hell at least.
Unfortunately, Russia needs to come to the table with a rational offer first. Thus far, they've ignored even a hint that the current battle line is a good place to stop. If and when they come to the table with an offer based on that, Ukraine would probably have to take it. They are in a position to bleed Russia white, but the cost to themselves of doing so is unpalatable if the Russians stop committing suicidal attacks. It's the basic maths that Russia may be losing 7-8x the materials and personnel, but they have 7-8x as much of it to start with.
dylanredefined
Not a house elf a tiger
Not many are needed to make rotary wing operations problematic. Gunships are used as a reaction force. After the long range air defences are knocked out something the F16 will be able to do air superiorly gives the Ukrainians a lot of advantages.
editor
hiraethified
How long would it take for you to give up completely and surrender if the UK had been attacked by a war crime committing force, who had stolen young children, raped women, murdered civilians, destroyed hospitals, vital infrastructure and tens of thousands of homes, and stolen land?
I doubt if many Ukrainians don't need 'encouragement' from anyone to protect their families, their livelihoods and their homes. ,
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
just taking a look at the example of ireland i would hazard a guess at many hundreds of years
by contrast the english and welsh folded to the normans and their successors in a comparatively brief period of time
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I was going to say "Russia dropped the ball on that one", but history tells us that gloves-off brutality seems to come particularly easy to Russian soldiers, and is clearly something that is culturally instilled. After something like Bucha, I imagine Ukrainian resolve hardened significantly. And with every subsequent city flattened, citizens brutalised, and unspeakable horrors visited, that resolve can only strengthen.
Whether or not Russia do consider themselves to have "won" at some future point, their victory is going to have come at a terrible cost, even accounting for the vast difference in population sizes between Russia and Ukraine. And I suspect Ukraine will not simply collapse, but will extract the maximum price from Russia for its victory.
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
The F-16 delivery schedule of record was 6 this year (not going to make it), 8 in 2024 and and 5 in 2025. (Air Forces Monthly magazine)
They might get some additional ex-RNALF jets if Biden wants to pay for them but their constraint is probably more crew than aircraft at this point. It takes a full year to mint an F-16 driver (the 'B' course is 40 weeks but there is arsing about with survival and English language training) and a full year to make a crew chief to maintain the aircraft so the Ukrainian F-16 build up is going to be very slow.
Even then the F-16/AIM-120 combo only gets them back to approximate parity with the Su-35/Adder so they'll go from being outgunned to outnumbered - if they choose to engage. Also, no AWACS, no AAR, no SEAD, no ECM so they are not playing with a full set of clubs in the bag.
I can remember when NLAW/TB2/Leopards/HIMARS were going to win this thing.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
There's always a lot of excitable speculation every time some new bit of kit turns up, or some significant event occurs (eg sinking of Moskva). They tend to be the ones who make the most noise. Meanwhile, sober voices are there, too.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
I think the big change in expectation is in realising that Russia can completely humiliate itself, crash its own economy, send hundreds of thousands to die, and still come out seeing itself as the "winner" in that it has more territory (admittedly mostly rubble) than it started with.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
What do the sober voices see as the route to a Ukrainian victory?
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