Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[DownwardDog]

The relevant section starts at 25:45.

A couple of factors are at play

First, both Ukraine and Russia have similar demographic pyramids, with a steep decline in births following the collapse of the USSR.

View attachment 403020

Ruling out retirees and children, the average age of the "fighting" population is already 41.

Second, the UKR army has exemptions from mobilisation for people without military experience between the ages of 18 and 27.
This means that the army's pre-war cohort of young contract soldiers has not been replenished with conscripts of similar age, pushing the average higher.

That 44m is a 2020 number. Since then 2m Ukrainians have gone to Russia, 4m went to the EU+UK and Ukraine have carelessly misplaced the best part of four oblasts. So the Ukrainian population under the control of Kiev is probably closer to 30m with horrendous demographics.

 

[existentialist]

What do the sober voices see as the route to a Ukrainian victory?

Western support seems to figure largely.

 

[planetgeli]

I can remember when NLAW/TB2/Leopards/HIMARS were going to win this thing.

Don't forget the cluster bombs. How are they going?

 

[TopCat]

How long would it take for you to give up completely and surrender if the UK had been attacked by a war crime committing force, who had stolen young children, raped women, murdered civilians, destroyed hospitals, vital infrastructure and tens of thousands of homes, and stolen land?

I doubt if many Ukrainians don't need 'encouragement' from anyone to protect their families, their livelihoods and their homes. ,

So how do you predict the next year will go then? Plus, if all invaded peoples took your attitude there would have been no Good Friday agreement for example. You didnt express support for continued resistance to British rule in the north of Ireland?

 

[TopCat]

Not many are needed to make rotary wing operations problematic. Gunships are used as a reaction force. After the long range air defences are knocked out something the F16 will be able to do air superiorly gives the Ukrainians a lot of advantages.

How are the air defences to be knocked out?

 

[teuchter]

Western support seems to figure largely.

But there seems to be zero evidence or suggestion that western support is going to be increased. Only decreased.

 

[The39thStep]

A two part article that provides, in my view, a useful summary for discussion. I'm not a wargamer so make of them what you will


Part 1. 'Miscalculations, divisions marked offensive planning by U.S., Ukraine'

https://archive.is/pYBg2

Part 2. 'In Ukraine, a war of incremental gains as counteroffensive stalls'

https://archive.is/8kvNq

 

[Crispy]

How are the air defences to be knocked out?

Long range heavy cruise missiles. So far only UK and France have given any, and in limited numbers. The USA has thousands of them and hasn't given a single one.

I hope that the right high-impact support is given, allied production of more basic stuff ramps up and UKR makes gains.
I suspect the lines will move slowly and grind the war on for another year or two, after which Russia will get to keep the territory they hold.

The decision to fight on remains up to the Ukrainians, but they may have their hand forced by their allies.

 

[StoneRoad]

See also - counter-battery fire

 

[tim]

Well would you encourage the Ukrainians to continue?

I assume that both sides will continue until one or the other is unable to continue further.

It's not my role to tell people living under occupation or facing the threat of being occupied, be they in Ukraine, Palestine or somewhere like Western Sahara, that they shouldn't resist.

 

[editor]

So how do you predict the next year will go then? Plus, if all invaded peoples took your attitude there would have been no Good Friday agreement for example. You didnt express support for continued resistance to British rule in the north of Ireland?

Why not just answer my question directly instead of this irrelevant, swerving whataboutery and a ridiculous strawman about Northern Ireland?

 

[Dystopiary]

I don't support any country. I support resistance against terror. What'll happen next I wouldn't even guess at this point except that any kind of true peace seems very unlikely. A peace settlement won't bring peace and certainly not justice.

 

[Pickman's model]

Why not just answer my question directly instead of this irrelevant, swerving whataboutery and a ridiculous strawman about Northern Ireland?

where to start? The old what would you do if the UK was invaded is a staple question of statists, has been for many years. When one part of the UK, namely the six counties, is a remnant left after a revolt in the years 1919-21 forced the UK state out, it's hardly whataboutery. There has been resistance to British rule in the six counties since its inception, at a higher tempo from 1956-62 and again from the late 1960s to the late 1990s. It seems you can't handle a slight reframing of your question to point to actual resistance to an occupying force within the uk

 

[TopCat]

I assume that both sides will continue until one or the other is unable to continue further.

It's not my role to tell people living under occupation or facing the threat of being occupied, be they in Ukraine, Palestine or somewhere like Western Sahara, that they shouldn't resist.

Did you support the Irish republican struggle against occupation? I did, vocally and the odd bit of cash. I also was supportive of the Good Friday agreement. Along with a lot on this thread it seems occupation is always wrong unless it’s not.

 

[TopCat]

Why not just answer my question directly instead of this irrelevant, swerving whataboutery and a ridiculous strawman about Northern Ireland?

You are not up to it on threads like this. Stop embarrassing yourself.

 

[editor]

Did you support the Irish republican struggle against occupation? I did, vocally and the odd bit of cash. I also was supportive of the Good Friday agreement. Along with a lot on this thread it seems occupation is always wrong unless it’s not.

IT'S NOT THE SAME THING.

 

[tim]

Did you support the Irish republican struggle against occupation? I did, vocally and the odd bit of cash. I also was supportive of the Good Friday agreement. Along with a lot on this thread it seems occupation is always wrong unless it’s not.

Again, it is not for me to tell those involved in a struggle when to compromise. As in Ireland, any Good Friday moment will come when it comes.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Oh it's that time again

 

[Pickman's model]

Again, it is not for me to tell those involved in a struggle when to compromise. As in Ireland, any Good Friday moment will come when it comes.

You're a right numpty if as you suggest in this post you think the gfa just happened along one fine day and everyone thought they'd have a spot of that

 

[Yossarian]

Oh it's that time again

The Whataboutery Olympics?

 

[tim]

You're a right numpty if as you suggest in this post you think the gfa just happened along one fine day and everyone thought they'd have a spot of that

Like any agreement it happened when those involved in the conflict felt they had little or nothing to gain from its continuance and something positive to take away from reaching a compromise . I have no idea how close that point is in the Ukrainian conflict.

 

[Pickman's model]

Like any agreement it happened when those involved in the conflict felt they had little or nothing to gain from its continuance and something positive to take away from reaching a compromise . I have no idea how close that point is in the Ukrainian conflict.

Oh stfu it's embarrassing seeing you squirm so

 

[The39thStep]

Potential Presidential candidate Alexey Arestovich, Former Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, December 4, 2023.

"Do you know what our biggest tragedy is? I think that, in the conflict between globalists and realists, we have bet on the wrong side. We kind of shed blood to end up in the losing camp. I saw the German President's visit to Qatar, where they forgot to meet him. For 30 minutes, he didn’t leave the plane until Qatar officials came up with something. And they talk about Putin being isolated on the international stage? They almost held a horse parade for him in Qatar. Why is Putin, so terribly isolated, speaking at the G20 and all other places while being diplomatically isolated? And now, Time has put him on the list for Person of the Year. They are seriously considering it. That's just a magazine, but what fucking war, for what democracy, what values are we talking about? Don't you think that we are in the wrong company? I'm starting to think so."

 

[Yossarian]

Russian propagandists have been doctoring Cameo videos to make it appear that Zelensky is seeking help for substance abuse

Russian influence and cyber operations adapt for long haul and exploit war fatigue - Microsoft On the Issues

Since July 2023, Russia-aligned influence actors have tricked celebrities into providing video messages that were then used in pro-Russian propaganda, according to the latest biannual report from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center.

blogs.microsoft.com

 

[ska invita]

Big article in the FT https://archive.ph/UZbEf about how the west is losing interest in funding he war...this bit really stood out to me though:

"The financial pressures facing Ukraine are immense — and relentless. The government uses all of its tax revenues to cover defence spending — amounting to about half of its public expenditure. While Ukraine has received nearly $100bn worth of weapons and military training, it also needs foreign aid to pay for the government, public services, pensions and benefits. This requires $41bn in external financing next year, according to the budget passed by parliament last month.

It was counting on $18bn from the EU, $8.5bn from the US, $5.4bn from the IMF, $1.5bn from other development banks and $1bn from the UK. Kyiv is still negotiating with other partners, such as Japan and Canada. Although some of the required money will be paid whatever happens in Washington or Brussels, Kyiv needs cash to start flowing next month. If it fails to come through and Kyiv cannot borrow enough domestically, it may have to resort to monetary financing by the central bank, which could unleash hyperinflation and put financial stability at risk."

-----------
For NATO to have backed the maximalist position in this war, effectively resulting in maximum physical damage in terms of lives lost and destroyed infrastructure, and to then lose interest would be absolutely the worst of all worlds in this situation.

It has been reported that the US and Germany have been in backroom talks to look at how to bring the war to a close, so just maybe, and this is wild speculation, there is some degree of co-ordinated move here to move the Zelensky government and supporters towards that reality and down off the maximalist perch.

 

[Pickman's model]

-----------
For NATO to have backed the maximalist position in this war, effectively resulting in maximum physical damage in terms of lives lost and destroyed infrastructure, and to then lose interest would be absolutely the worst of all worlds in this situation.

by nato do you also mean 'the west', ie European countries in the EU and efta?

 

[ska invita]

by nato do you also mean 'the west', ie European countries in the EU and efta?

obvs
in terms of military strategy its NATO tho

 

[Pickman's model]

obvs
in terms of military strategy its NATO tho

So you're including Ireland and Switzerland and Liechtenstein in 'nato'

 

[ska invita]

Avdiivka, the eastern Ukrainian city that has seen some of the most intense fighting of the war, is on the verge of “imminent collapse” to Russian forces, according to a report. A dispatch in the Times by its former Kyiv correspondent said Ukrainian troops defending the frontline area were “starved of ammunition” and hamstrung in their attempts to repel the advancing enemy soldiers.

That report in the Times here

https://archive.ph/CKroW

“We had ten times more ammunition over summer, and better quality,” he said. “American rounds come in batches of almost identical weights, which makes it easier to correct fire, with very few duds. Now we have shells from all over the world with different qualities and we only get 15 for three days. Last week we got a batch full of duds.”
...

well-placed Ukrainian appeals for ammunition in the Tory press is nothing new, but does sound like a genuine thing within the bigger context of stories that arms-funding is not coming through

 

[Pickman's model]

someone should tell the royal navy the hms grimsby's gone to ukraine

https://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/organisation/units-and-squadrons/sandown-class/hms-grimsby