Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Silas Loom]

Said by whom, the US and Germany themselves, or is this just Ukraine's take?

Bild. Briefed by someone inside a German government that has a much wider spread of opinions on Ukraine and on Russia than either Washington or Westminster.

There are still people in senior administrative and political roles in Germany who would acquiesce if the Kremlin told them that Saturday was Sunday.

 

[andysays]

Bild. Briefed by someone inside a German government that has a much wider spread of opinions on Ukraine and on Russia than either Washington or Westminster.

There are still people in senior administrative and political roles in Germany who would acquiesce if the Kremlin told them that Saturday was Sunday.

OK, if that's correct it possibly is more significant than Ukraine coming out with something similar again.

 

[RedRedRose]

A quick survey of the room suggests things are a little precarious atm, but IMHO it is the wrong time to make hard and fast decisions.

Russia is throwing everything at Avdiivka and will probably do another mobilisation once they have resolved their election. That might have deeper consequences, but immediately it will bolster numbers. However, we are starting to see protests by troops and their families about the lack of troop rotation.

Ukraine is having to consider another mobilisation knowing full well it hasn't the same kind of reserves the Russians have.

 

[The39thStep]

One of the issues the German government has to contend with is their own constitutional courts ruling on their budgets and the debt brake. The impact of the ruling is still being assessed but the immediate impact is that this has frozen a heap of spending including future funding for Ukraine and other future major spending.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Today was the day Ukraine marks the holodomor - Russia has been saving up for it

 

[RedRedRose]

Ukraine responds

 

[krink]

I was complaining about how cold my house was this morning then I saw the snow storm videos from the frontlines and then the storm that hit the Black Sea coast with 30 foot waves. What with the spring and autumn mud, the snow and the storms I don't think it can be overstated what a huge part the weather plays in this war.

 

[tim]

The wife of the Ukrainian "Spy Chief" has been poisoned with heavy metals. Those responsible must, presumably, be within the system whether they be agents of Moscow or internal oppositions to her or her husband.

Ukraine spy chief's wife poisoned, says Kyiv

Heavy metals were used to poison Kyrylo Budanov's wife, Marianna, an intelligence official tells the BBC.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[RedRedRose]

Russia's hit a new level of competency: killing its own generals

Senior Russian general ‘killed by one of Putin’s own landmines’ in Ukraine

It comes amid week of heavy losses for Russia with five other officers killed in Ukrainian airstrike

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

 

[teuchter]

Seems potentially more interesting/significant (if true and not exaggerated):

Ukraine blows up 2 railway connections between Russia and China

Kyiv’s saboteurs strike deep in enemy territory, with Russian media reporting that authorities are investigating it as a terror attack.

www.politico.eu

Edited to add:

The SBU set off several explosions inside the Severomuysky tunnel of the Baikal-Amur highway in Buryatia, located some 6,000 kilometers east of Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian official with direct knowledge of the operation told POLITICO.


“This is the only serious railway connection between the Russian Federation and China. And currently, this route, which Russia uses, including for military supplies, is paralyzed,” the official said.

As far as I can see this is basically nonsense. This is not the line that connects Russia & China.

 

[Chz]

Seems potentially more interesting/significant (if true and not exaggerated):

Ukraine blows up 2 railway connections between Russia and China

Kyiv’s saboteurs strike deep in enemy territory, with Russian media reporting that authorities are investigating it as a terror attack.

www.politico.eu

Edited to add:



As far as I can see this is basically nonsense. This is not the line that connects Russia & China.

It's what they built after sino-russian relations cooled and they realised the trans-siberian runs uncomfortably close to the Chinese border. So it's an important link to Vladivostok and North Korea, but not to China itself.

 

[teuchter]

It's what they built after sino-russian relations cooled and they realised the trans-siberian runs uncomfortably close to the Chinese border. So it's an important link to Vladivostok and North Korea, but not to China itself.

Exactly, it's a route built specifically to avoid China.

Here are the main routes used between China and Russia:



I've added the red arrow in the top right corner to show where the attacks have occurred. And also on this map:




And yet there seem to be multiple headlines about how this has cut off the only rail connection between Russia and China.

Even the ISW are getting this wrong.



Maybe they need to work a bit on their fact-checking?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

On a related topic, Russian airlines are still operating Boeing and Airbus aircraft, pretty much daily incidents now what with them basically not being properly serviced for nearly two years. Fuck flying on any of them.

 

[StoneRoad]

Two things, IMO, if the SBU/GUR did blow up those train(s) I suspect that it was to a) prove they can act that far away and b) more likely to try and disrupt the supplies from North Korea - although that's probably a bit late in the day.

 

[teuchter]

Surely supplies from n Korea can just come along the traditional trans siberian route instead though.

 

[RedRedRose]

Earlier than predicted, as it was touted to originally be expected after the 2024 Presidential election. What difference it will make remains to be seen.

Putin orders Russian military to boost troop numbers by 170,000

Russia’s armed forces set to total 1.32 million after latest increase amid the continued invasion of Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

Russian president Vladimir Putin has ordered the country’s military to increase the number of troops by nearly 170,000 to a total of 1.32 million, as Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine continues into its 22nd month.

Putin’s decree was released by the Kremlin on Friday and took force immediately. It brings the overall number of Russian military personnel to about 2.2 million, including 1.32 million troops.

It is the second such expansion of the army since 2018. The previous boost by 137,000 troops, ordered by Putin in August 2022, put the military’s numbers at about 2 million personnel and about 1.15 million troops.

 

[TopCat]

Is everyone in agreement now that the Ukrainians spring offensive is over?

 

[TopCat]

Troop numbers reported as being a big issue for the Ukrainians now.
Are they going to reduce or remove study exemptions to boost conscription numbers?

Changes needed in Ukraine's mobilisation system, says Zelenskiy​

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said Ukraine needs to improve its mobilisation system, with the issue of recruitment under public discussion for some time.

Questions of corruption in the military, particularly in procurement and recruiting, have periodically seized public attention as Ukraine tries to press on with a counteroffensive that has so far produced only incremental gains.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy said a meeting of the military command had discussed scenarios to produce “concrete results” for 2024 in conditions of war.

“In particular, this concerns the issue of mobilisation. Everyone in Ukraine understands that changes are needed in this domain,” he said. “This is not simply a question of numbers, of who can be mobilised … It’s a question of a time frame for each person who is now in the military, for demobilisation and for those who will join the military. And it’s about conditions.”

Zelenskiy’s comments coincided with Vladimir Putin signing a decree ordering an increase of 170,000 in the Russian armed forces. According to the document, the regular strength of the armed forces is now set at 1,320,000.

Debate on altering procedures in Ukraine focuses on the extent of mobilisation, with commanders wanting to draw in younger and more skilled recruits. Serhiy Leshchenko, a presidential adviser, speaking on national television this week, called for troop rotations to ensure sufficient numbers at the front. He said many Ukrainian brigades were dominated by soldiers already in their 50s.

Zelenskiy has long highlighted corrupt practices associated with recruiting offices, including widespread bribe-taking to secure medical exemptions from service.

 

[tim]

Is everyone in agreement now that the Ukrainians spring offensive is over?

Hope springs eternal.

 

[The39thStep]

Hope springs eternal.

Springs right up your behind

 

[Smangus]

Is everyone in agreement now that the Ukrainians spring offensive is over?

It's just around the corner...

 

[tim]

Springs right up your behind

Yes, as is the case with most of the others posting on this thread.

 

[TopCat]

Grim reports from the front. Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'

 

[ska invita]

Grim reports from the front. Ukraine war: Soldier tells BBC of front-line 'hell'

From a dispassionate point of view it's the three weeks of training green Ukrainian replacements that are the biggest alarm bell there.

 

[Chz]

From a dispassionate point of view it's the three weeks of training green Ukrainian replacements that are the biggest alarm bell there.

It's a bit horrific, but Ukraine has basically sent recruits into two streams. One of which is pretty much "cannon fodder" and gets 3 weeks. Some lucky people get a few months in Poland, but I don't know what the criteria for that is. Presumably anyone who needs training on Western kit is going to be a bit longer.

 

[StoneRoad]

The russian milbloggers have been making similar complaints since well before the Ukrainians established even a foothold on the East bank of the Dnipro River, and have continued complaining about all manner of logistics and C&C topics after that foothold became a bridgehead.


One of the Ukrainian complaints is a lack of boats - there is a stockpile of confiscated inflatables in southern England, maybe Border Force could be persuaded to clear some space in the boat park by donating them to a worthy cause.

 

[TopCat]

The russian milbloggers have been making similar complaints since well before the Ukrainians established even a foothold on the East bank of the Dnipro River, and have continued complaining about all manner of logistics and C&C topics after that foothold became a bridgehead.


One of the Ukrainian complaints is a lack of boats - there is a stockpile of confiscated inflatables in southern England, maybe Border Force could be persuaded to clear some space in the boat park by donating them to a worthy cause.

I can’t tell if you are serious or not

 

[teqniq]

This does not sound too good for Ukraine:

White House warns Congress not to ‘kneecap’ Ukraine over funding for war

 

[DownwardDog]

It's a bit horrific, but Ukraine has basically sent recruits into two streams. One of which is pretty much "cannon fodder" and gets 3 weeks. Some lucky people get a few months in Poland, but I don't know what the criteria for that is. Presumably anyone who needs training on Western kit is going to be a bit longer.

The criteria is anybody who can afford the bribe.