Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[_Russ_]

A rather more useful assessment of that damage here



Seems to be some disagreement between these two sources, about which airport these are images of.

It is located just north of Peremozhne, Luhansk Oblast.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Reddit is awash with various videos of the conflict.

Yeah but the line hasn’t moved mate

 

[Chz]

I don't either. Could it be that these numbers are complete fucking rubbish?

Independent analysis has found that, while Ukraine (obviously) overestimates Russian casualties, it's not by a terrible lot by fog of war standards and it's by a predictable amount. There was a great paper on it posted a few dozen pages back.

So my takeaway would be that no, the Russians didn't lose that much men/materials in the assault, but it was also a pretty brutal punch to the face for them. They'll learn and try something different. If there's one thing the conflict has shown, it's that the purportedly inflexible Russian army can adapt. It's just that they don't until they've been punched in the face a few times first.

 

[Fez909]

I’ve done a search for “Russian casualties Andriivka” and the reports seem to be talking about Ukrainian claims rather than confirmation, Does anyone have access to any videos or images to prove the claims ? Otherwise we’re just looking at a jpeg file with numbers on it

Thread by @UAControlMap on Thread Reader App

@UAControlMap: 1/25 Daily Ukraine 🗺️map thread for 20/10/23 Highlights: Highest claimed personnel, tank (55) & AFV (120) losses for Russian forces of the war after another disastrous attack on Avdiivka. Ukrainian fo...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[The39thStep]

Fascinating article on alleged CIA training of SBU ( The Security Services Of Ukraine)

" based on interviews with more than two dozen current and former Ukrainian, U.S. and Western intelligence and security officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity citing security concerns as well as the sensitivity of the subject."

https://archive.ph/fqMp6#selection-703.237-703.272

 

[gosub]

The Ukrainians Blew Up So Many Russian BMD-2 Vehicles That The Kremlin Had To Reactivate Its Unlucky BMD-3s

The Kremlin continues to reach into warehouses, vehicle parks and test sites for armored vehicles to carry its troops into battle in Ukraine. The latest is the BMD-3.

www.forbes.com

 

[gosub]

I don't either. Could it be that these numbers are complete fucking rubbish?

Looks to have a sufficiently sizeable dink that it will flush through to be a spike on war pensions...
Anyone know what the lag on that is?

 

[not-bono-ever]

All kinds of stuff in the ever reliable social media that Putain has had a cardiac and needed kick started.

 

[RedRedRose]

The rumblings of a revolt? Stuff coming out in opposition to the meat waves Avdiivka and other places.

Thread by @ChrisO_wiki on Thread Reader App

@ChrisO_wiki: 1/ Hundreds of Russian soldiers may have mutinied in recent weeks as the Russian army accumulates huge losses in offensives in several regions of Ukraine. At least 173 men are reported to have been det...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[RedRedRose]

Still alive, apparently

Kremlin denies 'absurd' online rumour that Vladimir Putin died from cancer

Kremlin rejects claims of Putin's poor ill-health and even death as 'absurd information'

www.standard.co.uk

Odd move they feel the need to respond to comments he might already be dead.

 

[Smangus]

Still alive, apparently



Odd move they feel the need to respond to comments he might already be dead.

No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'!

 

[jeff_leigh]

No no he's not dead, he's, he's restin'!

If he is then Medvedev takes the reins and six months later we’ll all realise there’s a lot worse people than Putin

 

[existentialist]

If he is then Medvedev takes the reins and six months later we’ll all realise there’s a lot worse people than Putin

It's nowhere near as simple as that. But it's bound to be messy.

Am interesting take on the whole rumour. Google Podcasts

 

[kabbes]

All true, but the creators of those maps don’t have anything but public information to work with and need to wait for verifiable data before they update. I would say that you really need to look at the movement over the course of weeks, not days. If there is no further movement into Verbove by the end of October then I guess the seizure of its western tip was for reasons other than the desire to retake it.

So, following on from this, there has been no further movement in October. Either Verbove was not the target after all, or it was the target but the aim got thwarted.

 

[Cid]

So, following on from this, there has been no further movement in October. Either Verbove was not the target after all, or it was the target but the aim got thwarted.

I imagine some forces that might be used for attempting advances have been redeployed to Avdiivka, where there has been a major Russian offensive for the past few weeks.

 

[Chz]

I imagine some forces that might be used for attempting advances have been redeployed to Avdiivka, where there has been a major Russian offensive for the past few weeks.

Reports saying there's a Ukrainian counter attack going on there right now. It's near a major logistics point, so Ukraine would like to secure the area.
Edit: link added.

https://nitter.net/secretsqrl123/status/1718686562597109782

 

[The39thStep]

As usual, with the more interesting articles on Ukraine, this leaves the reader with more questions than answers

Inside Volodymyr Zelensky’s Struggle to Keep Ukraine in the Fight

“Nobody believes in our victory like I do. Nobody,” Zelensky told TIME in an interview after his trip to Washington, D.C.

time.com

 

[Pickman's model]

If they're continuing to do so? Why only then? Why not all along since the war started? You're incredibly naive to think that a graph that includes Q4 on the chart is trying to fool anyone or that in a matter of hours Russia will unleash a barrage that would dramatically change the numbers. Those statements get made probably because they're true and significant on predicting what to expect in the future. This intersect on the graph is no surprise. In other words, the trend has been noticed for a long time. It wouldn't even matter if the graph was indeed wrong, and Russia and Ukraine are actually even at this point, which is hardly possible because they can detect artillery. The important thing is an artillery-based army is disarming itself for no good reason. It points to what is seen in other parts of their army - terrible command, and in this case, terrible battlefield command.


As Milley said:


And this too from the link above:


If this is the reason why Russia is burning through shells at such a rate, it's not something that is going to be fixed by new supplies of shells. It won't be fixed any time soon, if at all.

Your graph didn't predict this Ukraine reports most extensive Russian shelling of the year

 

[ska invita]

Big interview with Ukraine's chief military commander Valery Zaluzhny in the Economist here

https://archive.ph/osoLU

Very negative in tone

"“Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”

What interests me most is why give this interview...I guess basically its an appeal for more weapons, but more than that its even an appeal for new weapons technology that doesnt yet exist so as to break the stalemate!

The simple fact is that we see everything the enemy is doing and they see everything we are doing. In order for us to break this deadlock we need something new, like the gunpowder which the Chinese invented and which we are still using to kill each other,” he says.
This time, however, the decisive factor will be not a single new invention, but a combination of all the technical solutions that already exist, he says. In an article written for The Economist by General Zaluzhny (see here), as well as in a full-length essay shared with the newspaper, he urges innovation in drones, electronic warfare, anti-artillery capabilities and de-mining equipment, including new robotic solutions.

“It is important to understand that this war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation and outdated methods,” he insists. “They will inevitably lead to delay and, as a consequence, defeat.”

General Zaluzhny’s assessment is sobering: there is no sign that a revolutionary technological breakthrough, whether in drones or in electronic warfare, is around the corner.

 

[existentialist]

Big interview with Ukraine's chief military commander Valery Zaluzhny in the Economist here

https://archive.ph/osoLU

Very negative in tone


What interests me most is why give this interview...I guess basically its an appeal for more weapons, but more than that its even an appeal for new weapons technology that doesnt yet exist so as to break the stalemate!

Thing is, if he was saying "it's all fair winds, and smooth roads", he'd be being castigated for being ridiculously optimistic.

I think you're right, though - a lot of this messaging is aimed at maintaining pressure on other countries to provide weapons.

Which I don't have a problem with - I firmly believe that, if Putin prevails in Ukraine, he won't stop there. Which means that Ukraine is effectively holding the line against possible Russian incursions into Europe. I don't want to see that happen, so I think Zaluzhny (and the rest of the Ukrainian government) is quite right to be maintaining pressure on the West to supply them with weapons. From a cold and calculating point of view, with our weapons, Ukrainians will fight and die to hold Russia at bay; without them, it'll be countries like Poland and the Baltic republics that will be putting boots on the ground.

Putin only invaded Ukraine because he believed that the West wouldn't intervene. We didn't intervene when he engineered the conflicts in Donbas, and we didn't intervene when he essentially invaded Crimea - we need to make sure that his assumption that we wouldn't intervene when he invaded Ukraine last year is an incorrect one.

 

[ska invita]

I think you're right, though - a lot of this messaging is aimed at maintaining pressure on other countries to provide weapons.

the tone of that is a massive change from earlier in the year though, which had a We Can Do It message.

Saying we cant go any further, its a stalemate, Russia has an advantage, will not inspire NATO (US) funders , it will much more likely lead to a formalisation of the stalemate

 

[teuchter]

That Ukrainian commander is naive and doesn't understand the complexities of the situation. He is not reading enough analysis from Twitter commentators. The Russian military is on the verge of collapse, as he'd know if he paid more attention to graphs made by blokes in their bedrooms.

 

[Pickman's model]

That Ukrainian commander is naive and doesn't understand the complexities of the situation. He is not reading enough analysis from Twitter commentators. The Russian military is on the verge of collapse, as he'd know if he paid more attention to graphs made by blokes in their bedrooms.

go on, show us your bedroom graphs

 

[Pickman's model]

the tone of that is a massive change from earlier in the year though, which had a We Can Do It message.

Saying we cant go any further, its a stalemate, will not inspire NATO (US) funders , it will much more likely lead to a formalisation of the stalemate

now there's competition for the yankee bounty kyiv will have to make its case better than they're doing

 

[DownwardDog]

I firmly believe that, if Putin prevails in Ukraine, he won't stop there.

Why? If this business has demonstrated anything it's that the armed forces of the Russian Federation pose zero conventional threat to NATO. It took them a year to take the 36km2 of Bakhmut so the notion that the 3rd Guards Motorised Rapist Division is going to waltz into downtown Vilnius in the face of an Article 5 declaration is ludicrous.

 

[The39thStep]

the tone of that is a massive change from earlier in the year though, which had a We Can Do It message.

Saying we cant go any further, its a stalemate, will not inspire NATO (US) funders , it will much more likely lead to a formalisation of the stalemate

Obviously, Meloni has the sort of ego in which she thinks she pulls the strings however this is probably candid from her point of view

‘Tiredness on all sides’ over war in Ukraine, Italian PM tells prank caller

Giorgia Meloni ‘misled’ into phone conversation reportedly with Russian comedian posing as African political leader

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dogsauce]

What interests me most is why give this interview...I guess basically its an appeal for more weapons, but more than that its even an appeal for new weapons technology that doesnt yet exist so as to break the stalemate!

There are some western systems with better capabilities that could be available to them - certainly some Israeli-produced kit might come their way now, they have in the past disallowed export from third countries to Ukraine, but may have changed their mind in the last few weeks given the side Russia has taken. This includes some better anti-tank missiles, loitering munitions and surveillance/attack drones. Russia actually had some Israeli drones that were sold to them a few years back, which they have made a domestic copy of.

I’m hoping (not optimistically) that sanctions might eventually bite hard enough to force some sort of change, but with the authoritarian axis of China and India on their side I don’t think they’ll be economically crippled for a while.

 

[Chz]

There are some western systems with better capabilities that could be available to them - certainly some Israeli-produced kit might come their way now, they have in the past disallowed export from third countries to Ukraine, but may have changed their mind in the last few weeks given the side Russia has taken. This includes some better anti-tank missiles, loitering munitions and surveillance/attack drones. Russia actually had some Israeli drones that were sold to them a few years back, which they have made a domestic copy of.

I’m hoping (not optimistically) that sanctions might eventually bite hard enough to force some sort of change, but with the authoritarian axis of China and India on their side I don’t think they’ll be economically crippled for a while.

What they could really use (but won't get from the Israelis either) is current tech EW. I don't think they really need fancier stuff than they have outside of that.

 

[ska invita]

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

 

[Dogsauce]

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives from more than 50 nations supporting Ukraine, including NATO members, known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.

This has been denied by Ukraine, but then it would be I guess. Stories like this from unnamed sources might be more aimed at gaining clicks than presenting the whole story, we’ve had many in the past.