a_chap
When the world came apart, where were you?
Yes, but you can't be sure of that.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Yes, but you can't be sure of that.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
What you don't seem to understand, is I'm not arguing with you about what's happening in the Russian military, I'm not arguing about the reasons that might make numbers go up or down, nor am I trying to make any predictions of my own.
What I'm questioning is how much we can actually take from that graph, which appears to show a very obvious and clear trend, in conjunction with the title that states something that is not true, or at least is not backed up by the data offered as the source of the graph.
Aside from Q4 being included despite being in the future when the source data was compiled, and aside from there seeming to be no data to justify the figure for Q3 either - what if we actually look at the figures for Russia, what do they show? I'm reposting them at the bottom below.
They show a pretty clear decline between 1Q22 and 3Q22. Can't really argue with that (all assuming that the estimates gathered have some degree of credibility - I don't know if they do, but for the purposes of this argument let's assume they do).
But the figure for 2Q23 is the same as the figure for 4Q22. And what if we actually look at the figures for 1Q23 - as I already pointed out, the 28K (used for the chart) doesn't make any sense.
The estimates for 1Q23 are: 15K, 23K, and 25K (I think - even this is not clear). The average of that is (15+23+25)/3 = 21K.
Put that on the chart and you have a straight line for 4Q22 through to 2Q23. That implies a more or less constant level for 6 to 9 months. Below on the right is the real chart of the numbers presented. I have made my amendments with a similar disregard for graphical quality as the original. Now that projected dotted line looks quite silly. Doesn't mean it won't come true - like I say I am only talking about honest representation of the actual data here. I'm not trying to make any predictions about what is or isn't going to happen.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
JFS, we get what you are saying, you've been banging on about it for days, just STFU now.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
Glad we all now agree that I am correct.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Yes, yes, you're correct. Now go and start a thread about it.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Is there an artillery shell aisle?
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You need to get out more
jeff_leigh
What happened to Dubversion ?
Especially when these Experts tell us things we don’t want to hear
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Seems the US has handed over ATACMS longer ranger missiles to Kyiv, using the Israel mess to sly them over. And it's no surprise that they have so far used them to have a right old pop at the occupying forces.
Of course Russia does jack shit in reply. Is it not time time to stop fannying around? Russia's threats are fucking empty.
Of course Russia does jack shit in reply. Is it not time time to stop fannying around? Russia's threats are fucking empty.
jeff_leigh
What happened to Dubversion ?
The War will be decided on the Surovikin Line not by Missile Strikes on Crimea or Drone Attacks on Moscow
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Thank heavens that someone is able to cut through all the complexities of a complex situation and cut to the chase. Of course it's that simple
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
It’s funny because Putin was convinced it’d be decided by bombing power plants and civilian markets last time I checked
Bannerrefuggee
Well-Known Member
It's on the wrong side of the seafood section.
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
You've been a member here since Aug. 2008 and that's your first post, was it worth the wait?
That's some serious lurking BTW.
Bannerrefuggee
Well-Known Member
That's not right. I have a long and pitiful history here.
Almost as bad as you lot.
Almost as bad as you lot.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
If you think that you should like the post
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I don't believe that it's possible to like one's own posts.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
27405 not yours I think
gosub
~#
Aftermath of Ukraine’s Devastating ATACMS Strike on Berdyansk Airfield Revealed in Satellite Photos
Ukraine's ATACMS missile strike on the occupied Berdyansk airport has been described as a “serious blow” to Russia. Satellite images show a great deal of damage.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
God , this is depressing
Fez909
toilet expert
Yesterday was the costliest day so far for the Russians, according to Ukranian reports. I've seen Telegram posts claiming that the big push by Russia was due to Putin visiting and so they wanted to give him a 'gift' - presumably some good news, about taking Andriivka.
Instead, they lost 55 tanks and over 1,000 troops, along with other equipment.
It sounds, and looks, like a bloodbath. Grim stuff. I don't know how they can sustain these losses....
Instead, they lost 55 tanks and over 1,000 troops, along with other equipment.
It sounds, and looks, like a bloodbath. Grim stuff. I don't know how they can sustain these losses....
jeff_leigh
What happened to Dubversion ?
I’ve done a search for “Russian casualties Andriivka” and the reports seem to be talking about Ukrainian claims rather than confirmation, Does anyone have access to any videos or images to prove the claims ? Otherwise we’re just looking at a jpeg file with numbers on it
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
I don't either. Could it be that these numbers are complete fucking rubbish?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Really need an independent source about these deaths tbh. The same issue has been raised on the Gaza thread
RedRedRose
Well-Known Member
Reddit is awash with various videos of the conflict.
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