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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Rimbaud said:
they don't have to progress much further in order to be able to cut off Crimea and the Russian occupation west of Melitopol.
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I have a look every few days at that little bulge where they have been trying to get through the defences - as I understand it with the aim of taking control of Tokmak which is important transport wise.

I've been watching the painfully slow progress and am aware that in the last few days they have got through those defenses but there's still quite a way to go. Not being a military person I can't judge how optimistic the hopes are, that they'll take control of that town and succeed in interrupting supplies sufficiently that there is then a widescale Russian retreat from that area.

I was reading this earlier; it doesn't rule it out but also doesn't sound that confident that we'll see much success soon.

 
teuchter said:
I have a look every few days at that little bulge where they have been trying to get through the defences - as I understand it with the aim of taking control of Tokmak which is important transport wise.

I've been watching the painfully slow progress and am aware that in the last few days they have got through those defenses but there's still quite a way to go. Not being a military person I can't judge how optimistic the hopes are, that they'll take control of that town and succeed in interrupting supplies sufficiently that there is then a widescale Russian retreat from that area.

I was reading this earlier; it doesn't rule it out but also doesn't sound that confident that we'll see much success soon.

Click to expand...

I have no idea what is going on there exactly, progress is slow but some people say that doesn't capture the full picture of gradual degradation of Russian supply lines and morale, but that explanation could also just be propaganda.

But nevertheless I wouldn't write Ukraine's success off yet, and they have already succeeded in some goals, i.e. the survival of Ukraine as a country.
 
teuchter said:
But "doing really well considering the circumstances" is very different from "achieving the desired results" and so the former is somewhat irrelevant to arguments about whether the latter is possible.
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What they're doing and how well they're doing it very much has to do with achieving the desired results. So it's not irrelevant. People are making the assumption Ukraine has failed from media reports who have based their interpretation of progress from western generals opinions which are based on how the west would do it, which is very different from how Ukraine can do it even if they wanted to. The west would establish air superiority first etc etc. Ukraine can't. The media set the definitions of success and failure based on the word of those generals.

It's important to understand that "desired results" isn't so simplistic. Removal of Russian troops from Crimea is an end goal. We can say that with confidence. But that is achieved by numerous smaller goals, and it's those we really don't know about because there are lots of different things Ukraine can do based on whatever the situation allows, what tools are available. We're not in Ukraine's war room. And they're keeping it tight even from western military advisors help, so it appears. It's hard for us to know what Ukraine's tactics are. It's easier for us to know Russia's. A link to a video I posted yesterday makes the case that Ukraine has chosen an attritional strategy, which, if true, pretty much throws a wrench into everything we've seen from the talking head news. Also, wars aren't just fought on a battlefield. Zelensky had a very good round of visits. And it's fair to say we know almost nothing about Ukrainian intelligence.

What significant battlefield stuff we do know is: Ukraine has been defeating Russia at Russia's own game, artillery. Ukraine's counter-battery is superior to Russia's. Ukraine has made Bakhmut a symbolic thing in Russia, and Russia cannot let it go. This lets Ukraine control Russian forces. Russia is not fighting according to Russian doctrine. They are not fighting defence in depth, even though they've prepared for it. Instead, they are manning the foremost line repeatedly and are taking worse casualties for it. Russia is out of reserves. They are having to relocate units from one part of the line to another part, and not moving up a waiting unit in the rear. Even though Russia has air superiority, they're not using it as much as expected. Ukraine's most effective opponent is the Ka-50 alligator.
 
A380 said:
Or indeed having English your official language for about a quarter of the world...
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But that's what happens if you don't have a flag. No flag no countryIt's the rules that we just made up.
Drove an Int Corp officer even more potty than usual after pointing out most of my regiments battle honours were not exactly gained in the pursuit of Freedom (or even just beating up the French which is completely justifiable on the grounds that it's the french) But were mostly taking other people's countries although you could argue assorted Kings and other smaller empires were hardly Beacons of democracy and freedom but the British Empire was hardly democractic either
 
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likesfish said:
But that's what happens if you don't have a flag. No flag no countryIt's the rules that we just made up.
Drove an Int Corp officer even more potty than usual after pointing out most of my regiments battle honours were not exactly gained in the pursuit of Freedom (or even just beating up the French which is completely justifiable on the grounds that it's the french) But were mostly taking other people's countries although you could argue assorted Kings and other smaller empires were hardly Beacons of democracy and freedom but the British Empire was hardly democractic either
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Was one of your regimental battle honours Umboto Gorge?
 
Guardian writes:
“
The decision to allow some 600 members of a volunteer unit that was under the command of the Nazis to live in Canada after the second world war has long been a source of controversy.

It was the subject of a government commission of inquiry in the 1980s into whether Canada had become a haven for war criminals. Members of the division were accused of killing Polish and Jewish civilians.

The Nuremberg tribunals found the Waffen-SS guilty as an organisation of war crimes but not the the First Ukrainian Division, better known as the Waffen-SS “Galicia” Division or the SS 14th Waffen Division.

Only Germans from Germany itself were able to fight in the German army, so non-German volunteers who believed in Nazi aims or sought to use Nazi power for their own ends were organised into SS divisions.

In 1985, Canada’s then prime minister, Brian Mulroney, established the commission of inquiry on war criminals in Canada after an MP claimed the Nazi doctor Josef Mengele might be in the country. On the issue of the Galicia division, the commission’s head, Jules Deschênes, ruled that members “should not be indicted as a group”.

The members of Galicia division were individually screened for security purposes before admission to Canada. Charges of war crimes of Galicia division have never been substantiated, either in 1950 when they were first preferred, or in 1984 when they were renewed, or before this commission.”
Click to expand...
 
dilute micro said:
People are making the assumption Ukraine has failed from media reports who have based their interpretation of progress from western generals opinions which are based on how the west would do it, which is very different from how Ukraine can do it even if they wanted to.
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I'm not making that assumption.

It's possible to recognise that Ukraine have had certain considerable successes, including the fact that they have prevented a total annexation, but also to observe that currently their progress in reclaiming territory is very slow.

Having made that observation, there's a bunch of opinions to choose from, perhaps including those from "western generals" but also, I suspect, opinions that result from a degree of wishful thinking.
 
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Short read form ISW , which covers various things I've been saying ... and relevant to the current discussion.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces have adapted. Ukraine’s military decision-making is sound. Now is not the time for Western doubt but for the West to embrace Ukraine’s way of war and commit to sustaining Ukraine’s initiative on the battlefield.
www.understandingwar.org www.understandingwar.org

Also it would appear that some Abrams have arrived in Ukraine. [the source telegram post is in Ukrainian]
liveuamap.com

President Zelensky: Abrams tanks are already in Ukraine Kyiv, Kyiv city - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

President Zelensky: Abrams tanks are already in Ukraine. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons...
liveuamap.com liveuamap.com
 
teuchter said:
I'm not making that assumption.

It's possible to recognise that Ukraine have had certain considerable successes, including the fact that they have prevented a total annexation, but also to observe that currently their progress in reclaiming territory is very slow.

Having made that observation, there's a bunch of opinions to choose from, perhaps including those from "western generals" but also, I suspect, opinions that result from a degree of wishful thinking.
Click to expand...

Still, I think you're following the expectation of those generals and the media who expected it to be done much faster. So the question back to you is, why should Ukraine have reclaimed territory faster? What are you basing that upon?
 
Pickman's model said:
The isw link in StoneRoad's post above says russia hasn't established air superiority
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I looked at that. They say air dominance, and if they mean air supremacy, then that's true. If they mean air superiority, then that's arguably a different matter. From what I've read, Russia has the planes but don't fly them as much as they could and Ukraine can't stay in the air, though they have used air for Robotyne. It's been my understanding Russia has the lead where they are flying.
 
TopCat said:
“
The decision to allow some 600 members of a volunteer unit that was under the command of the Nazis to live in Canada after the second world war has long been a source of controversy.

It was the subject of a government commission of inquiry in the 1980s into whether Canada had become a haven for war criminals. Members of the division were accused of killing Polish and Jewish civilians.

The Nuremberg tribunals found the Waffen-SS guilty as an organisation of war crimes but not the the First Ukrainian Division, better known as the Waffen-SS “Galicia” Division or the SS 14th Waffen Division.

Only Germans from Germany itself were able to fight in the German army, so non-German volunteers who believed in Nazi aims or sought to use Nazi power for their own ends were organised into SS divisions.

In 1985, Canada’s then prime minister, Brian Mulroney, established the commission of inquiry on war criminals in Canada after an MP claimed the Nazi doctor Josef Mengele might be in the country. On the issue of the Galicia division, the commission’s head, Jules Deschênes, ruled that members “should not be indicted as a group”.
Click to expand...
The 14th Waffen Division only escaped the Soviet Union demands that they be sent to them due to the low level of Allied intelligence on war crimes in the eastern front . They were initially held in Rimini and Scotland . The filtration process was to be kind , ‘light fingered ‘, the deaths of East Europeans wasn’t a priority . Somewhere there’s a quote from an English officer who said the worst were sent to Canada . Those who were sent to the U.K. faced no investigation as there was a severe agrarian labour shortage which the U.K. hoped would be alleviated by the influx of Ukrainian even they they may have been collaborators .

We like to think that justice was dispensed at Nuremberg etc but the British were busy recruiting the very same people from that Waffen Division to return as spies to what was by then Soviet Ukraine .
 
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dilute micro said:
Still, I think you're following the expectation of those generals and the media who expected it to be done much faster. So the question back to you is, why should Ukraine have reclaimed territory faster? What are you basing that upon?
Click to expand...
I'm not saying they "should" have. It being described initially as a "spring counteroffensive" perhaps set up some kind of expectation that significant gains might be made in the spring/summer, but none of my comments are supposed to be a criticism of their methods; I'm totally unqualified to criticise. They are just my observations of things that to my eyes seem to make some predictions appear rather over optimistic. I'd be very pleased to find out that's not the case.
 
This looks like the start of something potentially important

We’ve seen over recent weeks the general consolidation of the area around Robotyne. Yesterday, something appeared on the interactive map that is almost invisible at any kind of wider zoom

1695707102728.png

Looking closer, though, it seems to be the Ukrainians establishing some solid ground in Verbove

1695707183620.png

To date, that kind of incursion has tended to end with Ukraine retaking the settlement.

It’s been noticeable that since taking Robotyne, Ukraine seem to have concentrated more on pushing east than south, despite talk of the latter being about cutting off the land bridge.
 
According to ISW, the Ukrainians are fighting in three areas of that salient :-
South [Southwest] of Robotyne, towards Novoprokopivka.
East into Verbove itself
East again, but somewhat north of Verbove and along the fortifications. This seems to be aimed at cutting off the troops based in Novofedorivka and further north to Myrne.
 
www.businessinsider.com

Russian officers who hadn't been paid by Moscow sold key intel on the Black Sea Fleet to Ukrainian resistance fighters. Then the headquarters blew up.

Resistance fighters told Ukrainian media they obtained sensitive information from the Russian officers in exchange for financial compensation.
www.businessinsider.com www.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...
After missing their anticipated salary payments, Russian officers decided to leak sensitive information about Moscow's Black Sea Fleet to a Ukrainian partisan movement. The intelligence later paved the way for a devastating missile strike on the fleet's headquarters in the occupied Crimean Peninsula, Ukrainian media reported.
Click to expand...
 
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