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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

They may believe that but the ability for the Russian state to do anything about it won't be there.
Putin can't mobilise anymore troops and equip them he just doesn't have the kit Russian is spending about a 1/3rd of it's budget on defence $100 billion dollars we spent just under 3% for nearly $70 billion US spends 12% for nealry nearly 900 billion

for that $100 billion
he needs to fund a startegic nuclear force
a Navy 3 fleet Atlantic Pacific and black sea fleets
an air force
A million strong army
we struggle to fully equip and man a 100000strong force
Russia claims to have 5000 odd nukers and 1600 deployed that's a lot of hardware that needs guarding expensive maintence America spends about $75 billion on it's nukes
so even at rock bottom prices thats 10 % of the Russian budget gone already

War boils down to logisitcs and demographics Russia is going to break itself in Ukarine it's fighting at exsistential threat to exsistence level against the West who are using up stockpiles and what they have lying around Americas builds Abraham tanks every year just to keep the factory's open!
 
likesfish said:
They may believe that but the ability for the Russian state to do anything about it won't be there.
Putin can't mobilise anymore troops and equip them he just doesn't have the kit Russian is spending about a 1/3rd of it's budget on defence $100 billion dollars we spent just under 3% for nearly $70 billion US spends 12% for nealry nearly 900 billion

for that $100 billion
he needs to fund a startegic nuclear force
a Navy 3 fleet Atlantic Pacific and black sea fleets
an air force
A million strong army
we struggle to fully equip and man a 100000strong force
Russia claims to have 5000 odd nukers and 1600 deployed that's a lot of hardware that needs guarding expensive maintence America spends about $75 billion on it's nukes
so even at rock bottom prices thats 10 % of the Russian budget gone already

War boils down to logisitcs and demographics Russia is going to break itself in Ukarine it's fighting at exsistential threat to exsistence level against the West who are using up stockpiles and what they have lying around Americas builds Abraham tanks every year just to keep the factory's open!
Click to expand...
Who , or what post , are you replying to ?
 
The39thStep said:
Who , or what post , are you replying to ?
Click to expand...
the idea that Russia will be full of hatred for Ukarine that may be true but their will be fuck all they can do about it.
Putins driven Russia off a cliff. It was a potential threat to the West and could leverage it's "fleet in being" nature Fleet in being - Wikipedia Getting the West to take him Seriously but after losing a flagship to a country without a Navy. getting his elite parachute forces exterminated etc. Russia has gone from a rival to a joke it can't even sell it's weapons abroad anymore.
 
likesfish said:
the idea that Russia will be full of hatred for Ukarine that may be true but their will be fuck all they can do about it.
Putins driven Russia off a cliff. It was a potential threat to the West and could leverage it's "fleet in being" nature Fleet in being - Wikipedia Getting the West to take him Seriously but after losing a flagship to a country without a Navy. getting his elite parachute forces exterminated etc. Russia has gone from a rival to a joke it can't even sell it's weapons abroad anymore.
Click to expand...
Ta. You can just tag the person you are replying to , like this Bahnhof Strasse
 
likesfish said:
They may believe that but the ability for the Russian state to do anything about it won't be there.
Putin can't mobilise anymore troops and equip them he just doesn't have the kit Russian is spending about a 1/3rd of it's budget on defence $100 billion dollars we spent just under 3% for nearly $70 billion US spends 12% for nealry nearly 900 billion

for that $100 billion
he needs to fund a startegic nuclear force
a Navy 3 fleet Atlantic Pacific and black sea fleets
an air force
A million strong army
we struggle to fully equip and man a 100000strong force
Russia claims to have 5000 odd nukers and 1600 deployed that's a lot of hardware that needs guarding expensive maintence America spends about $75 billion on it's nukes
so even at rock bottom prices thats 10 % of the Russian budget gone already

War boils down to logisitcs and demographics Russia is going to break itself in Ukarine it's fighting at exsistential threat to exsistence level against the West who are using up stockpiles and what they have lying around Americas builds Abraham tanks every year just to keep the factory's open!
Click to expand...

I think the doctrinal method of warfare matters too. This war is a somewhat modern, proficiency-gaining army fighting a tactically deficient, ill prepared, WW1/WW2 army. The Russian army is in a death spiral. The troops replacing the casualties are less trained and less prepared than the ones they're replacing. Part of this is because veteran instructors at Russian bases were sent to Ukraine, leaving no one with any experience to train the new conscripts. Soldiers are saying the training is basically little more than firing off some rounds. The morale factor too is getting worse and will be even worse come winter.
 
dilute micro said:
I think the doctrinal method of warfare matters too. This war is a somewhat modern, proficiency-gaining army fighting a tactically deficient, ill prepared, WW1/WW2 army. The Russian army is in a death spiral. The troops replacing the casualties are less trained and less prepared than the ones they're replacing. Part of this is because veteran instructors at Russian bases were sent to Ukraine, leaving no one with any experience to train the new conscripts. Soldiers are saying the training is basically little more than firing off some rounds. The morale factor too is getting worse and will be even worse come winter.
Click to expand...
So why does the Counter Offensive seem to be going pear shaped ?
 
jeff_leigh said:
So why does the Counter Offensive seem to be going pear shaped ?
Click to expand...
For the umpteenth time ...

The Ukrainians are pushing across areas that are heavily mined - with densities such as FIVE mines per square metre.
Of course progress is slow, it takes time for sappers to clear such a density, especially as they are often under fire at the time.
And there are plenty of other obstacles ...

Progress is slow, yes, I don't disagree with that, but advances are still happening.
 
StoneRoad said:
For the umpteenth time ...

The Ukrainians are pushing across areas that are heavily mined - with densities such as FIVE mines per square metre.
Of course progress is slow, it takes time for sappers to clear such a density, especially as they are often under fire at the time.
And there are plenty of other obstacles ...

Progress is slow, yes, I don't disagree with that, but advances are still happening.
Click to expand...
Keep the faith eh?
 
StoneRoad said:
For the umpteenth time ...

The Ukrainians are pushing across areas that are heavily mined - with densities such as FIVE mines per square metre.
Of course progress is slow, it takes time for sappers to clear such a density, especially as they are often under fire at the time.
And there are plenty of other obstacles ...

Progress is slow, yes, I don't disagree with that, but advances are still happening.
Click to expand...
There's about 20-30 days of fighting weather left for this campaign. It's not like there's an open-ended period for results to be achieved
 
Pickman's model said:
There's about 20-30 days of fighting weather left for this campaign. It's not like there's an open-ended period for results to be achieved
Click to expand...
According to ISW, the UKR's armed forces have stated that they will fight all year. [was in one of the recent daily reports].
There's been quite a lot of coverage of the UKR hitting targets in Crimea, like the Black Sea Fleet, and less about explosions behind the lines in other areas.

Personally, I hope the mud season is short this year and missiles don't pulverise the Ukrainian power system.
 
TopCat said:
Keep the faith eh?
Click to expand...

Why would you suggest it's faith to assess the war for what it is? The naysayers here are the ones who seem to have less interest in the details and just stick to believing the might of Russia will win. It's true they still could, but they also could have won in Afghanistan.
 
StoneRoad said:
According to ISW, the UKR's armed forces have stated that they will fight all year. [was in one of the recent daily reports].
There's been quite a lot of coverage of the UKR hitting targets in Crimea, like the Black Sea Fleet, and less about explosions behind the lines in other areas.

Personally, I hope the mud season is short this year and missiles don't pulverise the Ukrainian power system.
Click to expand...
I daresay Mark milley has some inkling of what he's talking about Russia-Ukraine war live: ‘too early to say’ whether Ukraine’s summer offensive has failed – as it happened
 
dilute micro said:
Why would you suggest it's faith to assess the war for what it is? The naysayers here are the ones who seem to have less interest in the details and just stick to believing the might of Russia will win. It's true they still could, but they also could have won in Afghanistan.
Click to expand...
No one wins in Afghanistan. And no one wins in Ukraine. Can you see any outcome which can really be described as victory for any side?
 
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