Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[strung out]

You provide no information on the factors I mention so your point is founded on sand. It's really stupid to say 'this proves my point' when the example you proffer does no such thing.

I gave no mention of the factors you mention because they're obvious. Training, experience and access to medical treatment clearly helps survivability. My point, which you seem determined to miss, is that improved western equipment, e.g. the M2 Bradley now in service with the Ukrainian army, also improves survivability of soldiers.

I'm not arguing against any point you're making, just saying that western military aid saves the lives of Ukrainians, whether that's things like better armoured vehicles, or air defense ammunition etc.

 

[Pickman's model]

Perhaps you can tell these Ukrainian soldiers that their new highly survivable Bradley IFVs supplied by USA did not in fact save their lives.

Two Ukrainian soldiers from the 47th brigade, Serhiy and Andriy, told ABC News that they and their crew wouldn't be alive today if Bradley didn't protect them from a battle early on in the counteroffensive where they were struck by mines, high caliber guns and attack drones.

"We were hit multiple times," Andriy, who drove one Bradley, said. "Thanks to it, I am standing here now. If we were using some Soviet armored personnel carrier we would all probably be dead after the first hit. It's a perfect vehicle."

Ukrainian soldiers say they owe lives to US-supplied Bradley vehicles

Ukrainian soldiers who used the U.S.-made vehicle talk about how it helped them survive a counteroffensive battle with Russian forces.

abcnews.go.com

Anyone who has read the classic 'Street without joy' will recall that on occasion the Viet Minh were confronted with French armour which they immobilised but didn't have weapons capable of penetrating. Nothing daunted,they simply fired rpg after rpg until the crew were roasted inside the tank. I don't know - though doubtless someone like kebabking can tell us - whether modern armour would prevent such a fate.

 

[Pickman's model]

I gave no mention of the factors you mention because they're obvious. Training, experience and access to medical treatment clearly helps survivability. My point, which you seem determined to miss, is that improved western equipment, e.g. the M2 Bradley now in service with the Ukrainian army, also improves survivability of soldiers.

I'm not arguing against any point you're making, just saying that western military aid saves the lives of Ukrainians, whether that's things like better armoured vehicles, or air defense ammunition etc.

So what you're saying is you don't know if these were really lucky callow conscripts or veterans whose cool head under fire played a role in their survival. Those seem significant factors to me, you could hand the best equipment in the world to someone but without training it's useless whereas an experienced soldier can make good use of er suboptimal equipment.

 

[strung out]

So what you're saying is you don't know if these were really lucky callow conscripts or veterans whose cool head under fire played a role in their survival. Those seem significant factors to me, you could hand the best equipment in the world to someone but without training it's useless whereas an experienced soldier can make good use of er suboptimal equipment.

This is a very bizarre line of discussion you're going down. I'm just going by the words of the soldiers.

"We were hit multiple times," Andriy, who drove one Bradley, said. "Thanks to it, I am standing here now. If we were using some Soviet armored personnel carrier we would all probably be dead after the first hit. It's a perfect vehicle."

I don't know though, maybe they're just talking shit and haven't got a clue about how good the vehicles they're using are.

 

[Elpenor]

How does the USA prolonging the war save lives?

I also think of the immense cost of the war, hundreds of billions of dollars and the opportunity cost as that money could have been spent far better on countless non-military uses eg clean water, green energy, public transport etc

 

[LDC]

How does the USA prolonging the war save lives?

That statement is simplistic and again is patrionising to all the Ukrainians fighting, and to the people in Russia resisting.

It assumes that some other variation to what's happening now wouldn't end up with more war in the medium to longer term. There's a good body of thinking that resisting the Russian State invasion now is devastating, but longer term stops (or makes less likely) a wider war and/or more death etc.

I have no idea if that would be the case, but it's not some wacky pro-war and gleeful warmongers position. Plus your version of what should happen does give up on tens of thousands (or more) of people who actively don't want to live under Russian occupation of course.

 

[strung out]

How does the USA prolonging the war save lives?

I also think of the immense cost of the war, hundreds of billions of dollars and the opportunity cost as that money could have been spent far better on countless non-military uses eg clean water, green energy, public transport etc

Because all resistance against oppression and imperial conquest is just prolonging war, I guess, so no point ever fighting.

 

[Artaxerxes]

How does the USA prolonging the war save lives?

I also think of the immense cost of the war, hundreds of billions of dollars and the opportunity cost as that money could have been spent far better on countless non-military uses eg clean water, green energy, public transport etc

The war continuing kills soldiers willing to fight, the war ending in a Russian victory has Putin abducting even more civilians off the street and torturing or killing them

 

[redsquirrel]

Good. Give them everything they need to kick Russia out. All this dithering by the west is costing more innocent lives in the long run.

Examples just from yesterday.

No limits? Does "everything" include troops?

 

[Elpenor]

The war continuing kills soldiers willing to fight, the war ending in a Russian victory has Putin abducting even more civilians off the street and torturing or killing them

How are you sure that they’re so willing to fight, isn’t there conscription in both Ukraine and Russia?

And is there an opt-out to compulsory conscription? IIRC it’s for religious reasons only in Ukraine, not say moral objections. No idea of the situation in Russia but I hardly imagine it’s any better.

 

[dilute micro]

How are you sure that they’re so willing to fight, isn’t there conscription in both Ukraine and Russia?

And is there an opt-out to compulsory conscription? IIRC it’s for religious reasons only in Ukraine, not say moral objections. No idea of the situation in Russia but I hardly imagine it’s any better.

Ukraine's willingness to fight has been polled and written about since early in the war and has been easy to find ever since.

 

[Aquamarine]

Good. Give them everything they need to kick Russia out. All this dithering by the west is costing more innocent lives in the long run.

Examples just from yesterday.

Putin needs to be taken out. America has already 'approved' $111 billion in spending on the war, including $70 billion directly on weapons, the $24 supplement includes $14.1 billion in direct military aid, plus $8.5 billion in economic aid. The cost in human life is heart breaking.

 

[teqniq]

 

[Pickman's model]

This is a very bizarre line of discussion you're going down. I'm just going by the words of the soldiers.
f2
"We were hit multiple times," Andriy, who drove one Bradley, said. "Thanks to it, I am standing here now. If we were using some f armored personnel carrier we would all probably be dead after the first hit. It's a perfect vehicle."

I don't know though, maybe they're just talking shit and haven't got a clue about how good the vehicles they're using are.

I don't think they're talking shit. I think you're talking shit. You're extrapolating far beyond what the scanty evidence you provide can be expected to bear. You know what happened to at least one other Bradley from the platoon. And you haven't mentioned the deaths there orthe concussions suffered by the soldiers you quote. You'll recall no doubt that many American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan survived ied explosions but suffered traumatic brain injuries from concussions. I wonder how those injured in the incident you're relying on will fare in the future. And you're using the evidence of two soldiers about one sort of American vehicle like it speaks to the performance of other American vehicles provided to Ukraine. Give it up, you're humiliating yourself.

 

[Artaxerxes]

This tweet is unavailable


If it’s worth posting it’s worth summarising or a screenshot

 

[teqniq]

This tweet is unavailable


If it’s worth posting it’s worth summarising or a screenshot

Is that my post? If so it's a vid and it still works but to summarise text of Tweet as follows:

'The video shows Svetlana Semeykina and Christina Spitsyna giving a concert on the street in Zaporizhzhya. An hour after the concert their lives will be taken by a rashist rocket.'

 

[Artaxerxes]

Ah it’s showing now but it was erroring a minute ago

Either my phone is flakey or it’s Twitter and these days it’s usually Twitter

 

[Pickman's model]

Putin needs to be taken out. America has already 'approved' $111 billion in spending on the war, including $70 billion directly on weapons, the $24 supplement includes $14.1 billion in direct military aid, plus $8.5 billion in economic aid. The cost in human life is heart breaking.

Putin needs to be taken out to save the Americans money: a novel stance

 

[Artaxerxes]

Russian military never saw a civilian target it didn’t want to take out. Cunts

 

[kebabking]

Anyone who has read the classic 'Street without joy' will recall that on occasion the Viet Minh were confronted with French armour which they immobilised but didn't have weapons capable of penetrating. Nothing daunted,they simply fired rpg after rpg until the crew were roasted inside the tank. I don't know - though doubtless someone like kebabking can tell us - whether modern armour would prevent such a fate.

Modern armour would reduce the likelihood of such a fate because reactive armour detonates outwards, so the majority of the heat energy doesn't touch the hull - so you'd have to fire many more projectiles at the vehicle before you got to the metal bit.

The - at least as pressing - question is, while you're standing around firing your apparently endless supply of RPG's at this vehicle, what is the crew doing with the vehicles own armament, and is it likely that the rest of the unit that this unfortunate belongs to is just going to stand around while this unfolds?

If I recall correctly, the 'roasting' thing was a somewhat rare and unplanned for idea that mostly involved petrol bombs, with RPG's etc.. being used to immobilise the vehicle and keep the crew from being able to use/reload it's armaments.

My own, perhaps rather conservative, view is that planning on winning an engagement by cutting off individual vehicles, and then getting close enough to throw petrol bombs at them, while keeping the crew inside with an RPG or two every minute for the several hours it would take to get the hull hot enough to roast the crew, would be a somewhat novel, perhaps even courageous plan...

As ever, look at the evidence: western tanks and IFV's have been subject to an endless number of RPG/whatever attacks in the Iraq and Afghan wars over the last 20 years - the number that have either been destroyed by a catastrophic kill, killing the crew, or been disabled for long enough that an enemy force has been able to roast the unpunctured hull has been a tiny proportion - for the second, it's less than one...

Compare that to the number of Russian tanks you've seen brew up while playing the 'can I get the turret to the moon?' game in the last 18 months.

Crew survivability is something western tanks and IFV's are designed and built around. Russian ones? Not so much.

 

[StoneRoad]

"Something" seems to be going on at the Kerch Bridge, according to "Livemap" {and also at Chondar Bridge / pontoon crossing, although I think that was yesterday / day before}

This is from the first episode / attack this morning


and later on in the day, further reports of explosions / smoke

 

[cupid_stunt]

More here, including photos.

Two powerful explosions were reportedly heard after the daytime attack on the Kerch Bridge, which was used by Russian forces to supply troops in southern Ukraine.

However, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed the attack was unsuccessful and there was no damage or casualties. In a statement previously published on news app Telegram, Crimea’s Russian-installed governor Sergei Aksyonov said two missiles had been shot down by anti-aircraft installations near the bridge. It remains unclear whether the crossing was badly damaged and whether the white smoke rising over the bridge was a shield from the Russian army.

Traffic on the Kerch Bridge has been halted in both directions but is said to be moving again during the day following the attack.

Moment Ukraine launches missile attack on Crimea Bridge in front of stunned holidaymakers just weeks after 'drone blast' - USTimesPost

UKRAINE has launched a missile attack on Putin's Crimean bridge just weeks after a suspected sea drone attack on the bridge killed two people.

ustimespost.com

 

[dilute micro]

"Something" seems to be going on at the Kerch Bridge, according to "Livemap" {and also at Chondar Bridge / pontoon crossing, although I think that was yesterday / day before}

This is from the first episode / attack this morning


and later on in the day, further reports of explosions / smoke

The starve part of "stretch, starve, strike".

 

[Aquamarine]

Putin needs to be taken out to save the Americans money: a novel stance

Ha. The Americans' breaking point is war against Russia. That could end up being unavoidable.

 

[dilute micro]

Ha. The Americans' breaking point is war against Russia. That could end up being unavoidable.

Looks as if there's a fear of both a war with Russia and a collapse of Russia resulting from an outright loss to Ukraine.

 

[Pickman's model]

Ha. The Americans' breaking point is war against Russia. That could end up being unavoidable.

I think you'll find China is the big one

 

[strung out]

I don't think they're talking shit. I think you're talking shit. You're extrapolating far beyond what the scanty evidence you provide can be expected to bear. You know what happened to at least one other Bradley from the platoon. And you haven't mentioned the deaths there orthe concussions suffered by the soldiers you quote. You'll recall no doubt that many American soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan survived ied explosions but suffered traumatic brain injuries from concussions. I wonder how those injured in the incident you're relying on will fare in the future. And you're using the evidence of two soldiers about one sort of American vehicle like it speaks to the performance of other American vehicles provided to Ukraine. Give it up, you're humiliating yourself.

Yawn. Here's the opinion of someone who knows a bit about this kind of stuff:

Crew survivability is something western tanks and IFV's are designed and built around. Russian ones? Not so much.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yawn. Here's some more evidence from someone who knows a bit about this kind of stuff:

You know I've seen that because you can see I liked the post. But as per usual you show yourself unable to engage with points I make eg that the commander of the men's unit didn't er survive the action, you rather skirt about that inconvenient truth. And you harp on and on about the Bradley, but not mentioning the m113 which have been offloaded on Ukraine in large numbers

 

[strung out]

You know I've seen that because you can see I liked the post. But as per usual you show yourself unable to engage with points I make eg that the commander of the men's unit didn't er survive the action, you rather skirt about that inconvenient truth. And you harp on and on about the Bradley, but not mentioning the m113 which have been offloaded on Ukraine in large numbers

Christ, you're hard work. My entire point is that Ukraine needs the more survivable heavy armour that's been provided recently such as the Bradley or western MBTs. You'll get no argument from me about the shortfalls of the less decent stuff, whether that's the Soviet equipment provided by former Eastern Block nations, or the older APCs like the M113.

 

[_Russ_]

Christ, you're hard work

That's one way of putting it