Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
If an MBT is likely to be attacked by a pod of orca then something has taken a wrong turn somewhere.
The fish should be in the tank, not outside attacking it…
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
The fish should be in the tank, not outside attacking it…
WouldBe
Dislicksick
Well that would certainly disable it.
I thought this was an interesting article. From a civil liberties point of view conscription is incompatible. From an equalities point of view, only conscripting 50% of the population is incompatible. I’m not sure what the answer is.
I think as a mother I’d volunteer to fight on condition my son was allowed to escape (and then I’d make him, even if I had to drug him and pass him over the border in person), but I’ve never been in that situation so I don’t know.
www.theguardian.com
I think one issue which has troubled since the beginning is what happens after. Because people who have been denied the right to leave and have been forcibly conscripted are going to want something for it - rightly. Which will be more than those not subjected to it get - rightly. But that isn’t going to make for a peaceful equitable equal society. It’s going to lead to resentment, surely - unless they are given advantages over those who weren’t subjected to such wartime restrictions, in things like loans and lower interest, discounted housing, employment, everything. Which isn’t great for other people, or women’s rights after the war, but these who’ve risked life and limb without choice, having been stripped of their rights and liberties, are rightly going to want some kind of advantage.
I think as a mother I’d volunteer to fight on condition my son was allowed to escape (and then I’d make him, even if I had to drug him and pass him over the border in person), but I’ve never been in that situation so I don’t know.
Bribes and hiding at home: the Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription
Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war, but such actions are seen as treasonous by those already fighting
I think one issue which has troubled since the beginning is what happens after. Because people who have been denied the right to leave and have been forcibly conscripted are going to want something for it - rightly. Which will be more than those not subjected to it get - rightly. But that isn’t going to make for a peaceful equitable equal society. It’s going to lead to resentment, surely - unless they are given advantages over those who weren’t subjected to such wartime restrictions, in things like loans and lower interest, discounted housing, employment, everything. Which isn’t great for other people, or women’s rights after the war, but these who’ve risked life and limb without choice, having been stripped of their rights and liberties, are rightly going to want some kind of advantage.
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i'm glad someone else has finally picked up on thisI thought this was an interesting article. From a civil liberties point of view conscription is incompatible. From an equalities point of view, only conscripting 50% of the population is incompatible. I’m not sure what the answer is.
I think as a mother I’d volunteer to fight on condition my son was allowed to escape (and then I’d make him, even if I had to drug him and pass him over the border in person), but I’ve never been in that situation so I don’t know.
Bribes and hiding at home: the Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription
Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war, but such actions are seen as treasonous by those already fighting
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
I thought this was an interesting article. From a civil liberties point of view conscription is incompatible. From an equalities point of view, only conscripting 50% of the population is incompatible. I’m not sure what the answer is.
I think as a mother I’d volunteer to fight on condition my son was allowed to escape (and then I’d make him, even if I had to drug him and pass him over the border in person), but I’ve never been in that situation so I don’t know.
Bribes and hiding at home: the Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription
Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war, but such actions are seen as treasonous by those already fighting
I think one issue which has troubled since the beginning is what happens after. Because people who have been denied the right to leave and have been forcibly conscripted are going to want something for it - rightly. Which will be more than those not subjected to it get - rightly. But that isn’t going to make for a peaceful equitable equal society. It’s going to lead to resentment, surely - unless they are given advantages over those who weren’t subjected to such wartime restrictions, in things like loans and lower interest, discounted housing, employment, everything. Which isn’t great for other people, or women’s rights after the war, but these who’ve risked life and limb without choice, having been stripped of their rights and liberties, are rightly going to want some kind of advantage.
Many of those who have managed to leave the country, escaping military service, just won't come back I suspect.
A Ukrainian couple I know who fled here last year (husband, wife and one kid) won the Green Card lottery and have gone to live in Chicago, against the wishes of the wife. I doubt they'll be back anytime soon.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I read some interesting surveys taken in Ukraine recently and one of them was the level of support for those young people who leave the country to study abroad during the warI thought this was an interesting article. From a civil liberties point of view conscription is incompatible. From an equalities point of view, only conscripting 50% of the population is incompatible. I’m not sure what the answer is.
I think as a mother I’d volunteer to fight on condition my son was allowed to escape (and then I’d make him, even if I had to drug him and pass him over the border in person), but I’ve never been in that situation so I don’t know.
Bribes and hiding at home: the Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription
Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war, but such actions are seen as treasonous by those already fighting
I think one issue which has troubled since the beginning is what happens after. Because people who have been denied the right to leave and have been forcibly conscripted are going to want something for it - rightly. Which will be more than those not subjected to it get - rightly. But that isn’t going to make for a peaceful equitable equal society. It’s going to lead to resentment, surely - unless they are given advantages over those who weren’t subjected to such wartime restrictions, in things like loans and lower interest, discounted housing, employment, everything. Which isn’t great for other people, or women’s rights after the war, but these who’ve risked life and limb without choice, having been stripped of their rights and liberties, are rightly going to want some kind of advantage.
source: Democratic Initiative Foundation
I suppose that’s right. I’ve wondered about their population anyway, besides this. I believe they were near 60 million at the end of the Soviet Union. By the time this started they were already down to about 40 million. If 8 or 10 or 12 million - numbers are all over the place understandably - have left, they are already below 30 million. And thats before those killed are added, plus the children who won’t be born, the men who are too injured to procreate, the women who are absent and won’t return. And they were already heavily skewed aged on those population pyramid things anyway.
That’s a vast country - with a hell of a lot of work to rebuild it - for what could end up being 20 million people and still falling. I was reading something in Foreign Affairs that estimated if it stopped tomorrow, it would cost in the region of $3 trillion to get it rebuilt, up and running. And who’s going to do all the building? All the pensioners and one armed former conscripts? What a mess.
Presumably they’re going to have to be designated as the point for mass migration (and I’ve seen this mentioned as being something they can do for an increasingly anti migrant core Europe), which is fine as far as it goes, but can’t be imposed from outside, so Ukrainians themselves would need to say ‘we need and can take 20-30 million people, if you give us the money to reconstruct to that level then we’ll do it’. I don’t know what attitudes to migration on that scale are in Ukraine. Are they similar to Poland or Hungary in this respect, or are they likely to do something totally different?
There was a lecture I was watching, involving Fiona Hill and someone whose name escapes me, talking about a victorious Ukraine (if that’s what happens) basically having to relaunch itself - it’s not going to be the same Ukraine, it’s not going to be the society and country being fought for now, and they likely won’t have the 1991 borders no matter how nice or justified an idea that would be. In which case, they might be incredibly open to all kinds of rather radical proposals that could come with reconstruction and the related investment. Who knows. It’s hard to think of what it’ll become.
There was a lecture I was watching, involving Fiona Hill and someone whose name escapes me, talking about a victorious Ukraine (if that’s what happens) basically having to relaunch itself - it’s not going to be the same Ukraine, it’s not going to be the society and country being fought for now, and they likely won’t have the 1991 borders no matter how nice or justified an idea that would be. In which case, they might be incredibly open to all kinds of rather radical proposals that could come with reconstruction and the related investment. Who knows. It’s hard to think of what it’ll become.
teqniq
DisMembered
Not completely related but read this the other day about women volunteering for the the army:I thought this was an interesting article. From a civil liberties point of view conscription is incompatible. From an equalities point of view, only conscripting 50% of the population is incompatible. I’m not sure what the answer is.
I think as a mother I’d volunteer to fight on condition my son was allowed to escape (and then I’d make him, even if I had to drug him and pass him over the border in person), but I’ve never been in that situation so I don’t know.
Bribes and hiding at home: the Ukrainian men trying to avoid conscription
Some are spending life savings to stay out of the war, but such actions are seen as treasonous by those already fighting
I think one issue which has troubled since the beginning is what happens after. Because people who have been denied the right to leave and have been forcibly conscripted are going to want something for it - rightly. Which will be more than those not subjected to it get - rightly. But that isn’t going to make for a peaceful equitable equal society. It’s going to lead to resentment, surely - unless they are given advantages over those who weren’t subjected to such wartime restrictions, in things like loans and lower interest, discounted housing, employment, everything. Which isn’t great for other people, or women’s rights after the war, but these who’ve risked life and limb without choice, having been stripped of their rights and liberties, are rightly going to want some kind of advantage.
My husband was killed fighting Putin — so I’ve taken his place
Well that’s it isn’t it - volunteering. That’s quite different to being banned from leaving the country and rounded up. There’s no way you can square that with civil liberties. If your body - and your life - belongs to the state and can be disposed of by it, you’re in a position that isn’t shared by anyone who chooses to volunteer. You are owned. Your body doesn’t belong to you. That’s always problematic.
editor
hiraethified
I wonder what a Russian response to such a poll would look like.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
But not a mention of the story posted some pages back about sexual harassment in the Ukrainian forces worthy of king david
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Haven’t been on Twitter for a week due to visitors but just ran into a load of Americans on there advising Ukraine that they should have 10% of their population in uniform . Easy to say when you are not doing the fighting / being hospitalised/ dying .
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A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
99.99999% in favour of whatever Putin said the answer should be...
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
But not littering.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
this makes for hard reading, but I'm not actually that surprised, given what's been found in civilian areas after their liberation.
Ukrainian prisoners of war say they were tortured at Russian prison
Former prisoners of war tell the BBC they were abused by Russian guards inside a detention facility.
www.bbc.co.uk
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
Unless there's a new Marshall Plan of some kind serving the cause of geopolitical rivalry the towns and cities may well just remain in a deep post-war malaise. Outside there though I could well see an Iraq-like situation of it being ground zero for an orgy of multinational asset grabbing, aiming to convert as much fertile soil as possible into a vast automated agro-zone. Disaster capitalism writ large.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
It already is g0 for an orgy of multinational asset grabbers. And the chances of a Marshall plan are 0
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I think symbolic money may be pumped in for a while to stabilise the government and present a front of success, but I agree it'll very likely not be a transformative sum and obv the strings will be all over the place. There's certainly grabbing going on atm but the big one, I suspect, will be waiting for the outcome before it really gets going. No point in buying up land, even cheap, if it ends up covered in mines and/or owned by the other side.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Au contraire, eg
2021
Ukraine moves closer to large-scale privatization breakthrough
Ukraine is currently on the verge of a large-scale privatization program that could dramatically reduce the country's vast portfolio of corrupt and under-performing state-owned enterprises.
www.atlanticcouncil.org
2022
Ukraine ‘must revamp labour laws and step up privatisation to fix economy’
President’s economic adviser says country must speed up reform of industries after Russia’s invasion
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
Unlike Iraq though I would imagine there would be more of an intrest on not having failed state on their doorstep of the EU. But yes to asset grabbing.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You can easily picture the kyiv government leasing or selling land damaged by the great deluge to companies offering to decontaminate it.
ska invita
back on the other side
Message being repeated from NATO high officials nowThis is interesting
Zelensky adviser* (*up till earlier in the year) Oleksiy Arestovych, sets out 3 endgames to the war:‘Swap Ukrainian land for peace’? | Peace News
peacenews.info
according to Oleksiy Arestovych,
The Peace News article make the point that " it is currently politically impossible for Zelenskyy to raise the idea of territorial compromise, however much he may wish to." <he has put all his eggs in that basket, and it is now a position synonymous with his name and raison d'etre.
Original report in the Telegraph:
Nato official apologises over suggestion Ukraine could give up land for membership
Secretary general’s chief of staff says statement was ‘mistake’ and part of wider discussion – but does not completely rule out idea
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Theres been two large international conferences and a host of smaller ones packed with runners and riders and Americans making cooing noises about transparency, reform for investors and partnerships. All the blueprints and plans that western capital had for Russia in 1993 have been updated and remade in glorious technicolor.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
now in new zelenskyvision
ska invita
back on the other side
"Ukraine approval" isn't all its cracked up to be....
If NATO countries want to wind down fighting they will do so...they are in power here. Many ways they can push this, not least by reducing supply of arms
If Ukraine wants long term protection from further Russian aggression it has to bow to NATO countries will.
Ukraine cannot decide to fight on its own if NATO decides enough is enough.
The messaging here is diplomatic - framing it publicly as "its their decision" is what a diplomat does - but the fact this very particular phrasing of "land for NATO protection" is being repeated suggests it is a very particular and planned outcome that is being discussed at different levels and now being floated in public.
It is "only one option", but the other option of total military victory is IMO clearly not being pursued by a US led NATO, and the counteroffensive is clearly not resulting in retaken territory .
The third option suggested by Arestovych of Putin being replaced by a future peacenik isnt worth talking about.
The key thing here is this NATO apparatchik is openly saying that "alliance members were discussing how the 18-month war might be brought to an end". There's not really many options of how that might look.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
there is no option of total military victory for ukraine. the maximalist position is really expel russia from the 2014 borders, the pre-green men borders. unless you're proposing to pursue any withdrawing forces to moscow or petersburg.
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