existentialist
Tired and unemotional
And?
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
You have high expectations of our arch-walt
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
So a step closer to sending F16s. But still a while off as obviously it takes a lot of time (and money) to train pilots. But it sounds like they are only training 6 pilots anyway. 
www.theguardian.com
US has cleared way for F-16s to be sent to Ukraine, say Denmark and Netherlands
Leaders of international coalition thank US for green light but it is still unclear when any F-16 transfers could take place
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Might be of interest to some people...
Actual peer-reviewed study on losses, first I've seen:
Some key points:
1) On ground equipment (tanks, armored vehicles, AA...), the mean estimates track very closely with Ukrainian official claims. Aircraft/helicopters are around half that.
2) Error bars on casualty rates are large, but the mean estimate is 5.5:1 in Ukraine's favor.
3) "When looking at Russian military deaths, we find that, for every loss suffered, Russian sources report only 0.3 losses (0.1–0.5). ... Russian sources overestimate Ukrainian military deaths at a rate of 4.3 to 1. Ukrainian sources overestimate Russian deaths by nearly double, though no bias is supported in the 95% CI (1.0:1–3.4:1). We find no evidence of systematic bias in Ukrainian reports of Ukrainian military deaths."
Actual peer-reviewed study on losses, first I've seen:
Some key points:
1) On ground equipment (tanks, armored vehicles, AA...), the mean estimates track very closely with Ukrainian official claims. Aircraft/helicopters are around half that.
2) Error bars on casualty rates are large, but the mean estimate is 5.5:1 in Ukraine's favor.
3) "When looking at Russian military deaths, we find that, for every loss suffered, Russian sources report only 0.3 losses (0.1–0.5). ... Russian sources overestimate Ukrainian military deaths at a rate of 4.3 to 1. Ukrainian sources overestimate Russian deaths by nearly double, though no bias is supported in the 95% CI (1.0:1–3.4:1). We find no evidence of systematic bias in Ukrainian reports of Ukrainian military deaths."
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
It's very expensive to train pilots of any kind - simulators, specialists' time, training flights etc. Basic training for a half dozen F16 combat pilots is $5.6m per person - nearly $34m of investment. I assume it's even more expensive if you're also having to try and integrate said training into a foreign combined arms system that's sat in an uncomfortable halfway house between Western and Russian military doctrines.it sounds like they are only training 6 pilots anyway.
UnderOpenSky
baseline neural therapy
I get that, but 6 doesn't sound that useful, especially if you loose a few. In terms of what the war has cost $34 million almost seems pocket change.
editor
hiraethified
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Incisive analysis there
ska invita
back on the other side
Re f16s, from what Ive read a little while back they are to play a defensive role rather than help recalim territory...this is to do with Russian ability to shoot them down. Even yesterday Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said “We had big hopes for this plane, that it will become part of air defence, able to protect us from Russia’s missiles and drones terrorism"...not as part of the the counterattack
quick google
seems 'balanced'
www.rand.org
quick google
seems 'balanced'
What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine
After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.
www.rand.org
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
7 dead so far and [
Leaving aside the drone conference which was there today - location decided only hours earlier - I presume the theatre was the victim as part of ru55ia's attempt to wipe out Ukrainian culture rather than a military target ... ?
Last edited:
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Or just a happy coincidence
spitfire
Walty McWaltface
Re f16s, from what Ive read a little while back they are to play a defensive role rather than help recalim territory...this is to do with Russian ability to shoot them down. Even yesterday Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said “We had big hopes for this plane, that it will become part of air defence, able to protect us from Russia’s missiles and drones terrorism"...not as part of the the counterattack
quick google
seems 'balanced'
What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine
After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.
Yeah that’s my understanding of it as well. I read another good article saying pretty much that a few weeks ago. Will take a look at this later.
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Overnight update to the casualty figures ... 144 wounded
Chernihiv: Russian missile strike kills seven and injures 144, Ukraine says
A Russian missile strike hits the heart of the northern city of Chernihiv, Ukraine says.
www.bbc.co.uk
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Part of this is also to signal that support is long term and ongoing.Re f16s, from what Ive read a little while back they are to play a defensive role rather than help recalim territory...this is to do with Russian ability to shoot them down. Even yesterday Ukrainian air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat said “We had big hopes for this plane, that it will become part of air defence, able to protect us from Russia’s missiles and drones terrorism"...not as part of the the counterattack
quick google
seems 'balanced'
What F-16s Will (and Won't) Do for Ukraine
After months of publicly lobbying to acquire U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, it appears that Ukraine may receive them later this year. However, there remains a long road ahead before the F-16s would see service in Ukraine—and it is an open question how much they would affect the outcome of the war.
Russian strategy now is probably just to dig in and wait for western support to stopm the agreement of deals that will not come into play for years is meant to signal to Russia that is not a good strategy.
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
Looks like it's finally going to start happening, just like you said.
Zelensky expressed readiness to exchange Belgorod for NATO membership -
Ukraine is ready to exchange Belgorod for NATO membership, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. So he answered the journalist’s request to comment on the proposal to exchange part of the…
newsinfrance.com
gosub
~#
Taste.
jeff_leigh
What happened to Dubversion ?
Russia just needs to wait until the 2024 Elections
Raheem
Well-Known Member
A bit of weird thing for Zelensky to say, given that Belgorod is in Russia. Maybe he will throw in Sao Paolo.Looks like it's finally going to start happening, just like you said.
Zelensky expressed readiness to exchange Belgorod for NATO membership -
Ukraine is ready to exchange Belgorod for NATO membership, President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. So he answered the journalist’s request to comment on the proposal to exchange part of the…
(Edit: he seems to have meant it as a joke)
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
I wonder if he's ever considered becoming a comedian.
ska invita
back on the other side
Fairly interesting mood music
www.politico.com
Milley is the US army chief who was hinting at a peace deal back in November 22 iirc, with the suggestion it was a time in which Ukraine enjoyed a position of strength within the overall war...
"One U.S. official, who didn’t want to run afoul of the administration by offering real views on the record, said the realities of the counteroffensive are sinking in around Washington. Ukraine’s tactics to preserve troops and equipment, ( I've read elsewhere that the US...err... Suggested...more of a kamikaze charge into Russian held territory)
Russia’s dug-in positions and the fight on multiple fronts have led to slow advances, shifting a possible breakthrough further into the future.
While the U.S. still backs Ukraine’s fight, the official said, “We may have missed a window to push for earlier talks.” The official also stressed, however, that few believe Moscow has been at all serious about negotiations since the war’s start. And no senior leader felt then, or feels now, that the counteroffensive was a mistaken play, considering how Ukraine maintains full support from the West and has had remarkable success throughout the war. Still, the official declared: “Milley had a point.”
Another U.S. official said the administration is increasingly asking itself this question: “If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?”
‘Milley had a point’
www.politico.com
Milley is the US army chief who was hinting at a peace deal back in November 22 iirc, with the suggestion it was a time in which Ukraine enjoyed a position of strength within the overall war...
"One U.S. official, who didn’t want to run afoul of the administration by offering real views on the record, said the realities of the counteroffensive are sinking in around Washington. Ukraine’s tactics to preserve troops and equipment, ( I've read elsewhere that the US...err... Suggested...more of a kamikaze charge into Russian held territory)
Russia’s dug-in positions and the fight on multiple fronts have led to slow advances, shifting a possible breakthrough further into the future.
While the U.S. still backs Ukraine’s fight, the official said, “We may have missed a window to push for earlier talks.” The official also stressed, however, that few believe Moscow has been at all serious about negotiations since the war’s start. And no senior leader felt then, or feels now, that the counteroffensive was a mistaken play, considering how Ukraine maintains full support from the West and has had remarkable success throughout the war. Still, the official declared: “Milley had a point.”
Another U.S. official said the administration is increasingly asking itself this question: “If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?”
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Fairly interesting mood music
‘Milley had a point’
Milley is the US army chief who was hinting at a peace deal back in November 22 iirc, with the suggestion it was a time in which Ukraine enjoyed a position of strength within the overall war...
"One U.S. official, who didn’t want to run afoul of the administration by offering real views on the record, said the realities of the counteroffensive are sinking in around Washington. Ukraine’s tactics to preserve troops and equipment, ( I've read elsewhere that the US...err... Suggested...more of a kamikaze charge into Russian held territory)
Russia’s dug-in positions and the fight on multiple fronts have led to slow advances, shifting a possible breakthrough further into the future.
While the U.S. still backs Ukraine’s fight, the official said, “We may have missed a window to push for earlier talks.” The official also stressed, however, that few believe Moscow has been at all serious about negotiations since the war’s start. And no senior leader felt then, or feels now, that the counteroffensive was a mistaken play, considering how Ukraine maintains full support from the West and has had remarkable success throughout the war. Still, the official declared: “Milley had a point.”
Another U.S. official said the administration is increasingly asking itself this question: “If we acknowledge we’re not going to do this forever, then what are we going to do?”
Milley talks about peace in a part of the world that will hardly cross his mind after he retires. It's easy to make a deal with other people's future. The brokers won't feel any responsibility years down the road when things go sideways. Ukrainians have been treated like this for a long time. I believe they're fed up with being pawns but have to stay friendly with the West.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I'm sure that they are fed up with being treated like pawns, but they know as well as we do that they absolutely need the support of the West if they are not to be overrun by Russia, which presents its own potential consequences to the West. So they're just having to suck it up. I guess that's politics.
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
These will be the six most heavily vetted and politically reliable pilots in Ukraine. They probably also only selected ones who are married with kids as the ultimate assurance of fealty. Add in the English language requirements and excluding alcoholics, etc. then six was the number that probably could be mustered at this stage.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
What really gets me is the game being played by the ones in the know, the military leaders like Milley and high level politicians who know what it takes to get the Russians out of the fortified areas at a faster, cost-effective pace and pretending to be surprised and disappointed in the counteroffensive knowing Ukraine doesn't possess the capabilities and knowing NATO themselves would never attempt such a thing without the full kit of weaponry - air superiority, heavy bombers, long range missiles. The media eats the "stalled Ukraine" line up. I really think the West (mainly the US) doesn't want a Ukrainian victory. I think they're afraid of what happens to Russia internally afterwards. An imploded Russia is a dark mystery.
Similar threads
