Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Dystopiary]

A Russian "guided bomb" has hit a blood transfusion clinic, according to Zelensky. He said people have been killed and injured, but didn't give figures.

Ukraine war: Russia hits blood transfusion centre, says Zelensky

Meanwhile Kyiv's airforce has said Russia launched waves of attacks on Ukraine overnight. They said "70 air assault weapons, including cruise and hypersonic missiles and Iranian-made drones" [/B]were used.

It was not immediately clear whether there was any damage from the attack or what happened to the 10 cruise missiles that were not shot down. There was no immediate comment from Russia.

Guardian link

 

[StoneRoad]

A Russian "guided bomb" has hit a blood transfusion clinic, according to Zelensky. He said people have been killed and injured, but didn't give figures.

Ukraine war: Russia hits blood transfusion centre, says Zelensky

Meanwhile Kyiv's airforce has said Russia launched waves of attacks on Ukraine overnight. They said "70 air assault weapons, including cruise and hypersonic missiles and Iranian-made drones" [/B]were used.



Guardian link

from link in livemap [telegram]

2 killed 4 wounded in the clinic attack

 

[LDC]

Medical related post...

From about 13 minutes in this episode of The Telegraph podcast on Ukraine has some stuff about attacks on medical facilities, but also some interesting information on growing anti-microbial resistance (AMR) relating to battlefield medical care in Ukraine, specifically traumatic amputations where loads of detritus gets into wounds. (There's been significant numbers of people suffering with amputations, the estimate on the podcast was 20-50,000 having lost one or more limbs.)

The shortage of testing due to the war to determine the antibiotic resistance/susceptibility of bacteria etc. leads to aggressive use of multiple antibiotics which in turn leads to increased AMR, a growing global problem. (WHO has a short bit on AMR here Antimicrobial resistance) On an individual level it leads to poorer outcomes; more dramatic and often repeated amputations, and more deaths due to infections.

 

[ska invita]

This is interesting

‘Swap Ukrainian land for peace’? | Peace News

peacenews.info

Zelensky adviser* (*up till earlier in the year) Oleksiy Arestovych, sets out 3 endgames to the war:

according to Oleksiy Arestovych,

"....the most likely way the war could end would be a coup in Russia. (highly unlikely IMO)

The most unlikely ending, according to Arestovych, was that Ukraine would persuade its Western allies to back its maximum goals for retaking the whole country. (agree)

The final option would be to try for a ‘Federal Republic of Germany’ situation where, say, 80 percent of Ukraine remained independent and was allowed to join NATO, while Russia retained 20 percent of the country. Perhaps, one day, the two parts of the country would be reunited, just like West and East Germany. " (by far the most likely IMO)

The Peace News article make the point that " it is currently politically impossible for Zelenskyy to raise the idea of territorial compromise, however much he may wish to." <he has put all his eggs in that basket, and it is now a position synonymous with his name and raison d'etre.

Original report in the Telegraph:

https://archive.ph/FaOEu

 

[Flavour]

Wouldn't rule out whoever takes over the reigns from Zelensky opting for a settlement with Russia that accepts the loss of the occupied territories -- I think Russia know that the likelihood of being able to end the war on terms favorable to them is much greater if Zelensky is not around, hence why they are busy trying to assassinate him.

 

[dilute micro]

Wouldn't rule out whoever takes over the reigns from Zelensky opting for a settlement with Russia that accepts the loss of the occupied territories -- I think Russia know that the likelihood of being able to end the war on terms favorable to them is much greater if Zelensky is not around, hence why they are busy trying to assassinate him.

A free Ukraine able to join NATO won't be favorable to Russia and losing coastal cities crucial to trade won't be favorable to Ukraine. The situation isn't Zelensky's creation. Most Ukrainians want the fight to continue.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've been away from urban for a few weeks, so just catching up on this thread, so quoting this from three weeks ago.

Russia extends eligibility for military call-up by at least five years

Russia's parliament on Tuesday extended the maximum age at which men can be mobilised to serve in the army by at least five years - in the case of the highest-ranking officers, up to the age of 70.

www.reuters.com

Russia raising the age limit on call ups again suggests they have serious manpower shortages.

I am sure there was a poster that kept banging on, and on, and on, about the age of recruits being used by Ukraine, yet here's a report on Russia recruiting up to 70 year-olds, now, here's the funny thing, I can't see a single post from that poster condemning the Russians, very strange, I wonder why that is?

 

[Pickman's model]

I've been away from urban for a few weeks, so just catching up on this thread, so quoting this from three weeks ago.



I am sure there was a poster that kept banging on, and on, and on, about the age of recruits being used by Ukraine, yet here's a report on Russia recruiting up to 70 year-olds, now, here's the funny thing, I can't see a single post from that poster condemning the Russians, very strange, I wonder why that is?

Maybe you should tag them if you're so desirous of their response

 

[cupid_stunt]

Maybe you should tag them if you're so desirous of their response

I was merely making a point, I didn't tag them, because I have no interest in their response, nor want to encourage them back to troll this thread again, their position in constantly attacking the innocent party in this war, whilst ignoring anything the aggressor does, is clear for everyone to see.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Wouldn't rule out whoever takes over the reigns from Zelensky opting for a settlement with Russia that accepts the loss of the occupied territories -- I think Russia know that the likelihood of being able to end the war on terms favorable to them is much greater if Zelensky is not around, hence why they are busy trying to assassinate him.

I know NATO rules didn't come down from the mountain with Moses, but this 20% to Russia thing leaves a dispute raging and the rules of NATO are you cant join whilst that is going on.

 

[Pickman's model]

I was merely making a point, I didn't tag them, because I have no interest in their response, nor want to encourage them back to troll this thread again, their position in constantly attacking the innocent party in this war, whilst ignoring anything the aggressor does, is clear for everyone to see.

That was a waste of time then

 

[teqniq]

Looks like maybe Ukraine scored a fairly major strike here, Either that or sabotage. Also somebody doesn't want any filming happening (second vid).

 

[agricola]

Looks like maybe Ukraine scored a fairly major strike here, Either that or sabotage. Also somebody doesn't want any filming happening (second vid).

TBF any even slightly competent emergency service would be telling gawpers / those filming to go a long way back there even if that was just a normal fire, never mind one involving explosives / ammunition.

 

[steeplejack]

Wagner have apparently been kicked out of Belarus. Lukashenka won’t fund their stay and Russia hasn’t paid for their stay as had been promised.

Fuel to the fire that Wagner’s ‘uprisng’ in July was all cosplay.

 

[agricola]

I know NATO rules didn't come down from the mountain with Moses, but this 20% to Russia thing leaves a dispute raging and the rules of NATO are you cant join whilst that is going on.

It wouldn't, to do that would mean they'd accepted the 20% smaller thing. It would probably quickly be replaced by some other territorial dispute, of course.

 

[teqniq]

TBF any even slightly competent emergency service would be telling gawpers / those filming to go a long way back there even if that was just a normal fire, never mind one involving explosives / ammunition.

This would be a completely fair point were it not for the fact that right at the end someone is trying to knock whatever recording device is being used out of the person's hand and at that while they've already moved well back from the site.

 

[The39thStep]

This is interesting

‘Swap Ukrainian land for peace’? | Peace News

peacenews.info

Zelensky adviser* (*up till earlier in the year) Oleksiy Arestovych, sets out 3 endgames to the war:

according to Oleksiy Arestovych,


The Peace News article make the point that " it is currently politically impossible for Zelenskyy to raise the idea of territorial compromise, however much he may wish to." <he has put all his eggs in that basket, and it is now a position synonymous with his name and raison d'etre.

Original report in the Telegraph:

https://archive.ph/FaOEu

Arestovych,interestingly enough insists on doing most of his interviews in Russian . He has good social reach with Ukrainians in the East and South who are also Russian speakers . Likely a Presidential candidate .

 

[ska invita]

Wagner have apparently been kicked out of Belarus. Lukashenka won’t fund their stay and Russia hasn’t paid for their stay as had been promised.

Fuel to the fire that Wagner’s ‘uprisng’ in July was all cosplay.

Not saying it hasn't happened but not actually seeing this "reported" in the press ...

What's the cosplay theory?

 

[steeplejack]

That the whole uprising was made up bullshit to flush out disloyal generals (e.g. Surovikin) and a psy-op to discombobulate observers / opponents outside of Russia.

The argument against the idea that it was cosplay runs along the lines of "but Wagner shot down a command plane and may have tried to steal nuclear material". That kind of stands up until you remember how little the Russian leadership cares about the fate of indivdual combatants.

We won't know for certain for a long time, of course, it's entirely plausible that the Wagner uprising was also real, but the play after the "calling off" of the uprising has just been far too odd for the "uprising" to be taken at face value.

The twitter user quoted above has been fairly reliable throughout the conflict and has no reason to make this stuff up. There's no particular merit in being "reported in the Western media" who've been pretty clueless from day one. Having a few hundred Wagnerites left in a training role with the Belarusian army, bogey men getting drunk and firing their guns in the air on the EU borders with Poland and Lithuania, whilst the rest are re-deployed to remote Russian bases prior to despatch to hot spots in Africa, makes perfect sense.

 

[ska invita]

That the whole uprising was made up bullshit to flush out disloyal generals (e.g. Surovikin) and a psy-op to discombobulate observers / opponents outside of Russia.

The argument against the idea that it was cosplay runs along the lines of "but Wagner shot down a command plane and may have tried to steal nuclear material". That kind of stands up until you remember how little the Russian leadership cares about the fate of indivdual combatants.

We won't know for certain for a long time, of course, it's entirely plausible that the Wagner uprising was also real, but the play after the "calling off" of the uprising has just been far too odd for the "uprising" to be taken at face value.

The twitter user quoted above has been fairly reliable throughout the conflict and has no reason to make this stuff up. There's no particular merit in being "reported in the Western media" who've been pretty clueless from day one. Having a few hundred Wagnerites left in a training role with the Belarusian army, bogey men getting drunk and firing their guns in the air on the EU borders with Poland and Lithuania, whilst the rest are re-deployed to remote Russian bases prior to despatch to hot spots in Africa, makes perfect sense.

I'm not saying Twitter user nmade it up, its sourced from a telegram channel. They may be chatting rubbish though. Who knows. I expect hundreds of troop movements are being watched though so should be verifiable

Wether the 'coup' was real or not the flush out effect would've been the same

 

[Kaka Tim]

That the whole uprising was made up bullshit to flush out disloyal generals (e.g. Surovikin) and a psy-op to discombobulate observers / opponents outside of Russia.

The argument against the idea that it was cosplay runs along the lines of "but Wagner shot down a command plane and may have tried to steal nuclear material". That kind of stands up until you remember how little the Russian leadership cares about the fate of indivdual combatants.

We won't know for certain for a long time, of course, it's entirely plausible that the Wagner uprising was also real, but the play after the "calling off" of the uprising has just been far too odd for the "uprising" to be taken at face value.

The twitter user quoted above has been fairly reliable throughout the conflict and has no reason to make this stuff up. There's no particular merit in being "reported in the Western media" who've been pretty clueless from day one. Having a few hundred Wagnerites left in a training role with the Belarusian army, bogey men getting drunk and firing their guns in the air on the EU borders with Poland and Lithuania, whilst the rest are re-deployed to remote Russian bases prior to despatch to hot spots in Africa, makes perfect sense.

why the fuck would Putin want to make himself look so weak and vulnerable? As ever with these things I think its far more likely that there was no overall plan - it was a series of actions and decicions that spiralled out of control and there is no "sense" to be made of it -a cominbaion of mr wagner group's caprice, resnetment and hubris, plus quite possibly a genrous helping of vodaka and military strength ampehtaimnes.

 

[ska invita]

why the fuck would Putin want to make himself look so weak and vulnerable? As ever with these things I think its far more likely that there was no overall plan - it was a series of actions and decicions that spiralled out of control and there is no "sense" to be made of it -a cominbaion of mr wagner group's caprice, resnetment and hubris, plus quite possibly a genrous helping of vodaka and military strength ampehtaimnes.

yeah speculating what ifs based on hypotheticals is pointless - the outcome is the outcome - and thats not a weaker Putin whatever The Times like to say

 

[steeplejack]

why the fuck would Putin want to make himself look so weak and vulnerable? As ever with these things I think its far more likely that there was no overall plan - it was a series of actions and decicions that spiralled out of control and there is no "sense" to be made of it -a cominbaion of mr wagner group's caprice, resnetment and hubris, plus quite possibly a genrous helping of vodaka and military strength ampehtaimnes.

That's also quite plausible- my only (slight) disagreement is that Putin doesn't care if he "looks vulnerable" outside of the country, only the optics of power within Russia itself. And he seems to have swept this up quite nicely and is moving along to the next stages of a mass mobilisation.

We're in the end game of Putin, sure, but he's much more likely to die in his bed of whatever hopefully painful and horrible illness he has, than he is at the point of a rebel's Kalashnikov. What comes after him is also likely to be of a deranged ethnic-nationalist flavour determined to "complete the sacred mission of our dear Vladimir Vladimirovich and securing a future for our Holy Russia".

 

[Pickman's model]

yeah speculating what ifs based on hypotheticals is pointless

most of what we do here is pointless

 

[ska invita]

most of what we do here is pointless

a big part of it is staying informed with facts and seeing through the propaganda and fog of war- is that pointless? maybe ultimately , but has some value to me yet

 

[Pickman's model]

a big part of it is staying informed with facts and seeing through the propaganda and fog of war- is that pointless? maybe ultimately , but has some value to me yet

You're missing the bigger picture which is the whole of the activity here. I didn't say what we do on urban has no value, I said most of it is pointless

 

[SpookyFrank]

I know NATO rules didn't come down from the mountain with Moses, but this 20% to Russia thing leaves a dispute raging and the rules of NATO are you cant join whilst that is going on.

And Putin knows that so he won't sign anything that officially ends this shit even if he get what he wants, or gets the most he could conceivably hope for given the reality of the situation.

 

[SpookyFrank]

What comes after him is also likely to be of a deranged ethnic-nationalist flavour determined to "complete the sacred mission of our dear Vladimir Vladimirovich and securing a future for our Holy Russia".

Probably. Not definitely though. You wouldn't have bet against Stalin being replaced by anything other than an even more mad version of Stalin, but what actually happened was a denunciation of Stalinism and a return to something that looked a bit like running a country properly. Could easily have gone another way of course.

My bet for the first major global power to completely tear itself apart in the 21st century is still the US, not Russia.

 

[Nylock]

...

My bet for the first major global power to completely tear itself apart in the 21st century is still the US, not Russia.

Yeah, it's looking uglier over there by the day....

 

[Pickman's model]

This is an ugly story Ukraine minister vows to act over claims of sexual harassment in army