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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Far from looking to end the war Russia is mobilising to scale up, confident of longer term prospects, also saying Russian economy and superstructure basically doing just fine, talk of weakness is wishful thinking etc
It looks weak to be making nuclear threats like this:
 
It looks weak to be making nuclear threats like this:
The problem with Russia is that they're so strong that fighting back would be pointless, and also so weak that they'd better not be embarrassed in case they let off a nuke.

Probably better off for everyone* if they just get left alone to complete their special military operation, in the name of global stability of course.

*except the rape, genocide, torture and mutilation victims in Ukraine of course.
 
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Thing is they are not that strong this isn't WW2 where you can drag peaseants into factory no2 and start churning out t34s or start turning out mosquitos in piano factories. you fight with what you already have. Russia did have vast stockpiles of stuff
If your firing antiship missiles at city's it's because you don't have anything else left you can shoot unfortunately they have loads of "carrier killers"
 
Thing is they are not that strong this isn't WW2 where you can drag peaseants into factory no2 and start churning out t34s or start turning out mosquitos in piano factories. you fight with what you already have. Russia did have vast stockpiles of stuff
If your firing antiship missiles at city's it's because you don't have anything else left you can shoot unfortunately they have loads of "carrier killers"
That only follows if your mind follows the most pedestrian arguments. For example Ukraine seems to have intercepted lots of kalibr missiles but anti-ship missiles with their lower flight altitude might be more likely to arrive. And anyway it seems the Ukrainians are saying you're wrong Russians produce dozens of Kalibr missiles per month - DIU
 
Thing is they are not that strong this isn't WW2 where you can drag peaseants into factory no2 and start churning out t34s or start turning out mosquitos in piano factories. you fight with what you already have. Russia did have vast stockpiles of stuff
If your firing antiship missiles at city's it's because you don't have anything else left you can shoot unfortunately they have loads of "carrier killers"
Oh and the russians didn't produce a single mosquito in ww2
 
Wagner invading Poland would be a suicide mission surely? There's about a thousand or so of them and Poland's got quarter of a million plus who I'd imagine are ready to go at the moment.

Something vaguely plausible might be border raids targeting overland grain movements. Fits with Putin's current strategy, is very deniable.

It's er... not very likely, and I haven't thought it through at all. But I'm not sure anyone is thinking much through these days, so who knows?
 
Wagner invading Poland would be a suicide mission surely? There's about a thousand or so of them and Poland's got quarter of a million plus who I'd imagine are ready to go at the moment.

Yeah from what I've been reading Poland has one of the most powerful militaries in Europe now. Armed to the teeth and long memories. Would be unwise.

Lukashenko playing up for domestic audience and keeping Uncle Vlad sweet.
 
I'd think the chances of a conventional military attack on Poland, by Wagner acting on behalf of the Russian state are about zero - but sub-threshold, little green men, terrorist type stuff? Yeah, I can see that.

I rather doubt Lukashenko is remotely interested though - he's a man with his eyes on the future, and one thing he's good at is talking billy big bollocks with Big Vlad in order to get political/security/economic support for his dodgy government, while doing absolutely nothing that would seriously antagonise the NATO eastern states.

He's no fool. He can see that the tea leaves are somewhat muddied - he's pretty unlikely to throw the very delicate political balancing act that keeps him in power onto the fire for someone who may not be there is 6 months.
 
My mate's Dad has made it out of Russian-occupied Ukraine after living under military occupation for a year and a half in the Kherson region.

He walked, literally, all the way to Tblisi, Georgia, and got a flight to Italy from there. Suffering from PTSD and drinking a fuck of a lot but to be expected. Didn't think he'd make it.
 
My mate's Dad has made it out of Russian-occupied Ukraine after living under military occupation for a year and a half in the Kherson region.

He walked, literally, all the way to Tblisi, Georgia, and got a flight to Italy from there. Suffering from PTSD and drinking a fuck of a lot but to be expected. Didn't think he'd make it.
Hope he can get the help & support that he'll need ...
 
And they've now hit an oil tanker that was supplying fuel to the Russian army.
Thread here:


Major supplier of jet fuel to the Russian forces in Syria. I will shed no tears whatsoever.
 
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I'd think the chances of a conventional military attack on Poland, by Wagner acting on behalf of the Russian state are about zero - but sub-threshold, little green men, terrorist type stuff? Yeah, I can see that.

I rather doubt Lukashenko is remotely interested though - he's a man with his eyes on the future, and one thing he's good at is talking billy big bollocks with Big Vlad in order to get political/security/economic support for his dodgy government, while doing absolutely nothing that would seriously antagonise the NATO eastern states.

He's no fool. He can see that the tea leaves are somewhat muddied - he's pretty unlikely to throw the very delicate political balancing act that keeps him in power onto the fire for someone who may not be there is 6 months.
That only really works if the "polite fiction" is people your attacking can't really do much about it.
for example Argentina even after the falklands war tried various covert landings sub visits and harrassing flights etc if they'd actually got caught it would have been an act of war and resulted in immediate violence.
wagnar trying that on Poland retaliates with 100 leopards Belarous military and a threat of Russian support isn't much of a threat.
Best Wagnar can do is look suspicious on the Polish border cross it and Poland goes to war. It's not like the Poles are going to look for any other actors is it?
 
The Poles look over those borders very carefully anyway, they have every right to be suspicious of their neighbours.
History has shown that up very clearly.
They won't be about to let their guard down anytime soon, and wagner personnel being present will only encourage that point of view.
 
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