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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24


I was always under the impression that it was a good idea when moving armour through cities to make sure you've got good infantry support, otherwise they're vulnerable. Judging by how quickly those BMPs went up in flames, that would definitely appear to be the case.

So where were the infantry?

ETA: ok, forget it - it's not this war.
 
Is Putin too proud to take a loss if the Ukrainians are able to keep this up? Could he blame the generals and save face? Or would this be too much of an embarrassment for him to fail?
I know it's the Telegraph...but, if Putin does begin to feel embarrassed...

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It's becoming increasingly hard to see how Putin survives this. Aside from anything else, the size of the tactical blunder is becoming ever more evident.

As tragic as this war is, its silver lining is that it surely spells the end of Putin's fascist dictatorship (though the military/oligarchs will likely replace him with another scumbag).
 
Just been reading a bit about the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 (the one that led to my dad being a refugee here). Their leadership told them not to fight, and so casualties were fairly low. Wonder what would have happened if they had resisted. Nobody internationally seems to have given much of a shit back then, other than allowing people asylum without much fuss.
 
A military thing that's a political thing...

You'll have heard by now that only between 30-50% of the Russian force on Ukraine's borders have actually crossed them - well, it's now pretty clear that it's not just a numbers thing, it's a capabilities thing: Vlad has not used his most capable Armoured units, he's using his 'B' units - decent stuff, but not the stuff with the latest upgrades, the best exercises, the Officers with the best reports.

The obvious question is why, and perhaps we should look to Vlad himself - he rambles on about the NATO threat, and perhaps he actually believes it? Perhaps he's keeping his most capable units in Belarus because he fears that while his B units are dealing with the Ukrainians, NATO is going to roll across from Poland?

He's making his problems worse: by using his B, and eventually C units, and them being less effective than his A units might, he's giving the Ukr time, and each day, as Russian units stagnate or advance, the Ukrainians get more effective, and his units less as the Ukr gets better at hitting the logistics tail and cutting - it's an unholy vortex, the longer it goes on, the worse it gets, but he may be unable to do the thing that might work, sending his most capable formations in, because his deranged paranoia is tell him that he needs them to keep NATO out.

(A units are regular units that are the best equipped, best trained, best lead, B units are regular units with old(er) equipment, less well trained, less well lead, and C units are reservist and conscript units that are equipped with obsolete gear, get very little training, half their stuff will break down and they'll have no protective gear like jammers, reactive armour, and their Comms gear will probably be crap. Last on the list for fuel, food and ammunition).
 
In a parallel world where the Ukrainians just decided to stay indoors and not fight at all, what do you think would happen next, would everything be resolved already peace on earth and Putin happy with his lot? I don't see how that would work.

there are historical precedents of just that - Gene Sharp has catalogued them in his writings
 
The news of the seizure of the Russian cargo ship is very worrying. On the one hand it's good, shows the Europeans aren't fucking about, but... How does putin respond to that?
 
Like some here, I can't think of a better resolution than Putin having some kind of accident, but I can't see how that would come about.
As with kicking out a Tory prime minister theres always another one ready to take the place - this is all structural. Removing Putin doesnt solve anything
 
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