That's Italy, Cyprus and Hungary who have changed their position now. Pressure on Germany will be high.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
That's Italy, Cyprus and Hungary who have changed their position now. Pressure on Germany will be high.
elbows
Well-Known Member
And even then there were a few operational setbacks which meant the most optimistic timetable didnt come to pass. It didnt change the end result though, and some later stages around Baghdad went better than the USA envisaged.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Swift is a distraction, countries need to stop buying their gas.
In WWI we kept selling grain to Germany because we thought getting their hard currency payments would help win the war more than starving them would.
In WWI we kept selling grain to Germany because we thought getting their hard currency payments would help win the war more than starving them would.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
which is no doubt why twitter in russia isn't so easily available
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i don't believe you. this flies in the face of eg Food and the First World War in Germany – Everyday Lives in War and Rationing and Food Shortages During the First World War. so link pls.
It strikes me that Putin may be staking more than he even bargained for, here. The assumption was that he would take Ukraine easily and then bargain from a position of power, and give cause to other nations to beware the Russian bear. So the discussion surrounded his endgame and what would and would not be possible for him to get out of it. The downside seemed to be that his gains wouldn't compensate for the impact of sanctions and political pariah-hood, but that's about it.
Well, what if his military actually fails to achieve its goal? Not just that he doesn't get as much as he wanted but is actually beaten back? Something I doubt he even considered possible, because it didn't seem possible. Rather than cowing the other countries on the border, they will sense weakness. A weakened Russia, not just militarily but also in terms of power-mystique and with no friends in the world. How many other grudges will come out to play at that point?
I'm not suggesting this is likely -- my guess is still that Ukraine can't hold out indefinitely. But once again, the way things have actually played out -- so far, even -- has reminded us not to ignore potential scenarios just because they seem impossible.
Well, what if his military actually fails to achieve its goal? Not just that he doesn't get as much as he wanted but is actually beaten back? Something I doubt he even considered possible, because it didn't seem possible. Rather than cowing the other countries on the border, they will sense weakness. A weakened Russia, not just militarily but also in terms of power-mystique and with no friends in the world. How many other grudges will come out to play at that point?
I'm not suggesting this is likely -- my guess is still that Ukraine can't hold out indefinitely. But once again, the way things have actually played out -- so far, even -- has reminded us not to ignore potential scenarios just because they seem impossible.
editor
hiraethified
Losing access to Swift would be a massive blow for Russia,
Idris2002
canadian girlfriend
Remember this one? It was a thing, in the 1990s, that what Russia needed was a Pinochet. A view shared by Mrs. Putin's boy.
Well, I hope all those people who urged a Pinochet solution on Russia are proud of themselves. I hope they're happy.
(Story is about a German TV show that interviewed VP when he was a deputy mayor in St. Petersburg)
Well, I hope all those people who urged a Pinochet solution on Russia are proud of themselves. I hope they're happy.
(Story is about a German TV show that interviewed VP when he was a deputy mayor in St. Petersburg)
elbows
Well-Known Member
I see our analysis is worlds apart, as it was in the pandemic. Please consider not bothering engaging with me on this so that we dont annoy everyone else with endless bickering. I will do the same in return if you agree. If not, then so be it.
Because as far as I'm concerned, cloud cuckoo land is planning for a war without any deadly setbacks being involved. And I dont think either of us have access to the detail of all scenarios and missions that Russia planned for. But the scale of forces they built up in advance of this conflict, and things like their military hospital planning, does not imply that they expected to roll into Kyiv virtually unopposed in a day or two, although they would also have been stupid not to test the feasibility of that possibility at all.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Sorry I got my examples crossed.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Bet that wasn’t cheap for NATO…
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Might prevent WW3.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Yuwipi Woman
Whack-A-Mole Queen
Giving five countries veto power was always a bad idea, even in 1945.
Last edited:
elbows
Well-Known Member
Yeah there is always risk involved, and by going for this war Putin has at the very least given his opponents at home and away the opportunity to smell potential political doom for him.
As my other posts demonstrate, I dont think very much has happened yet that gives me any real indication about whether this ugly war will fully blow up in his face. It would be great if it did, it would be the best outcome.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i don't know there's an obvious successor. frankly putin's going to leave something of a vacuum and in the face of a possible defeat or long-term involvement in ukraine you don't know who might step to the front next. Smokeandsteam said the best thing would be the russians topple putin. but that'd be step one of a civil war, i think. as it is i suspect there'll be unrest in the middle east and north africa and anywhere else that relies on food imports from ukraine. and that might take on a momentum of its own. the one thing that's certain is that the effects of what's happened so far are going to play out far and wide over years more likely than months.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Presumably this is what the Naval shenanigans west of Ireland are about? ‘We’ having limited AWACS capacity which is spread thinner by having to have some out over the Atlantic, plus other ongoing critical tasking…
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Basically just showing support to other eastern European countries, basically a bit of theatre.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
imagine if you will a russian nixon or reagan taking over from putin. that wouldn't be much of an improvement.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Nixon didn’t start any wars…
elbows
Well-Known Member
Reading the rest of the tweets in that thread I think they have rather over-egged that particular piece of propaganda. I'd like to believe it but some of the detail hardly rings true, at least not beyond the basic reality that if resistance can continue for a prolonged period, problems for Russia will start to mount up.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
no indeed, if you discount eg the american onslaught on cambodia. he took over from someone who had
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Does look like Russia has taken Melitopol, in the SE, their flag is flying from the main police station.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
No justice just human lives being wasted and people left mourning.
platinumsage
HaveMyPassword123
Literally no one outside Russia other than his cronies thinks this can possibly go well for him, even regardless of the current military situation. If he'd restricted himself to Donbas and Luhansk it might have been a different matter.
Aladdin
Well-Known Member
Thread by @RihoTerras on Thread Reader App
@RihoTerras: THREAD 1/7 Intel from a Ukrainian officer about a meeting in Putin’s lair in Urals. Oligarchs convened there so no one would flee. Putin is furious, he thought that the whole war would be easy...…
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