Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Walt is a derogatory term applied by _Russ_ to posters he believes feign a degree of military knowledge they do not in fact possess. Whether this derives from Walter Longmire, Walter White, Walter Mitty, Walter out of Dennis the Menace or some lesser-known Walter no one but _Russ_ knows, and he's not saying.Who's Walt?
Are you Eric then?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Dont worry, one has been despatched and they will be arriving shortly
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
A well researched paper from Dr Deborah Sanders - Kings, and Shriv - on Ukrainian military reform/doctrine over the last 20 years. Useful context, rather than rather shattering huge if true revelations from the last 2 minutes...
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Ah, I figured it was somehow derogatory but the only person I know who would use it that way is Eric. Walt's brother.
I profess officially here and now to have no military knowledge beyond that which I have gleaned by tirelessly scouring Reddit and other dubious forums and reading many now out-of-date books in my youth, if that helps any. But I'm pretty sure that applies to 99% of our readership too. I have somehow ended up knowing an awful lot more about Kursk than the average human, but it ends pretty much there.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
I am intrigued about military romance scammers in the States
taskandpurpose.com
Meet the Army officer who's become the accidental face of romance scams around the world
“As one account goes down, more pop up."
taskandpurpose.com
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
It derives from Walter Mitty. It's pretty well-known military slang for anyone who is presuming to greater knowledge/experience/rank/membership of SF than appears to actually be the case.
It's not confined to civilians, either - there's a fair smattering of ex-services out there whose less-than-stellar career morph on discharge into some kind of nose-tapping adventure with vague references to Shenanigans that, of course, cannot be spoken about.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you're presuming, as i am not, that _Russ_ derives his term from mitty. he's been so tight-lipped on the matter we know no more than 'walt' whereas used as you suggest the mitty bit is usually given too
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
First preference is the interactive one by ISW - plus their daily reports {and a time-lapse version, updated monthly}
Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
This interactive map complements the static control-of-terrain maps that ISW daily produces with high-fidelity.
storymaps.arcgis.com
during the day I sometimes refer to this one as it shows incident locations
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...
liveuamap.com
a third source is
DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine
News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map
deepstatemap.live
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
Ah, fair enough. Poor assumption on my part, there.
Flavour
hang the bankers
Some happy news: my friend's family in Oleshky are not dead. They are just homeless. Living in a hostel for refugees with nothing except the clothes on their back, basically. The houses in the area will all collapse from the effects of the flooding cos of poor construction, most probably. All the cows are dead.
Flavour
hang the bankers
Could have gone worse.
www.pravda.com.ua
Hundreds of occupied Oleshky residents died because of Russians’ refusal to evacuate them after blowing up Kakhovka HPP
Russian occupation forces on the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine did not evacuate people who did not have a Russian-issued passport.
www.pravda.com.ua
gosub
~#
Even WW1, with its grinding trench warfare there were breakouts, which usually ended in tears as they tested their ability for logistic resupply to destruction
ska invita
back on the other side
grim reading
www.theguardian.com
“The situation is not good,” he said. “We don’t have enough weapons and armoured vehicles.”
“We need better training,” he added. “I tell the recruits that they must pee in a bottle and then they leave the trench and are shot dead.”
Asked whether the offensive was making progress in Bakhmut, Tymchuk again went quiet. “I don’t know, 50:50,” he whispered.
...
Asked whether he had lost many friends, he became silent. “I would rather not say,” he said. “But a lot.”
I worry that theyve made such a big deal of the counteroffensive they wont dare back down now if it proves futile
Casualties mount as Ukraine’s forces inch south hamlet by hamlet
Clearest progress in counteroffensive has come north of occupied Mariupol, but Kyiv’s troops have paid a high price
“We need better training,” he added. “I tell the recruits that they must pee in a bottle and then they leave the trench and are shot dead.”
Asked whether the offensive was making progress in Bakhmut, Tymchuk again went quiet. “I don’t know, 50:50,” he whispered.
...
Asked whether he had lost many friends, he became silent. “I would rather not say,” he said. “But a lot.”
I worry that theyve made such a big deal of the counteroffensive they wont dare back down now if it proves futile
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cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
grim reading
“The situation is not good,” he said. “We don’t have enough weapons and armoured vehicles.”Casualties mount as Ukraine’s forces inch south hamlet by hamlet
Clearest progress in counteroffensive has come north of occupied Mariupol, but Kyiv’s troops have paid a high price
“We need better training,” he added. “I tell the recruits that they must pee in a bottle and then they leave the trench and are shot dead.”
Asked whether the offensive was making progress in Bakhmut, Tymchuk again went quiet. “I don’t know, 50:50,” he whispered.
...
Asked whether he had lost many friends, he became silent. “I would rather not say,” he said. “But a lot.”
I worry that theyve made such a big deal of the counteroffensive they wont dare back down now if it proves futile
You could be right, but you're very selective in what you quote, just for balance....
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
grim reading
“The situation is not good,” he said. “We don’t have enough weapons and armoured vehicles.”Casualties mount as Ukraine’s forces inch south hamlet by hamlet
Clearest progress in counteroffensive has come north of occupied Mariupol, but Kyiv’s troops have paid a high price
“We need better training,” he added. “I tell the recruits that they must pee in a bottle and then they leave the trench and are shot dead.”
Asked whether the offensive was making progress in Bakhmut, Tymchuk again went quiet. “I don’t know, 50:50,” he whispered.
...
Asked whether he had lost many friends, he became silent. “I would rather not say,” he said. “But a lot.”
I worry that theyve made such a big deal of the counteroffensive they wont dare back down now if it proves futile
The media and some talking heads have made such a big deal. The Ukrainian State and armed forces have often talked about not unrealistic expectations or thinking that it'll be a pushover.
ska invita
back on the other side
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
If you mean that you hope those conscripted into the Ukraine army are not just being sent into the meat grinder for no good reason, like their Russian counterparts have been, I would agree.
Having said that, and in the interest of balance, I suspect Ukraine has a lot more respect for their conscripts, than Russia.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
Probably why they're slowing the offensive.
Life is cheap in Russia.
Life is cheap in Russia.
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
I think most people would hope that. War is horribly wasteful of human life in any case, but to watch Russia's complete disregard for life is a whole other thing. Given the approach that Ukraine seems to have brought to its military in general, though, the idea that they'd be embracing futile, pointless "meat waves", and so on, doesn't seem a likely one.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
I believe it's also part of NATO military doctrine and Ukrainę have something to prove in that regard.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Well, that's a simplistic and inaccurate position. Plus most are volunteers, but don't let any of that stop you from projecting your comfortable ideological position onto people in another country subject to military invasion, murder, attacks on civilian infrastructure, torture, and forced deportations.
Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
Kakhovka Reservoir no longer exists. 
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Accounting error in Ukraine's favour. Collect $6.2bn in spare equipment and send to Ukraine.
jeff_leigh
What happened to Dubversion ?
They’re slowing the offensive because they’ve taken the time after the first Counter Offensive to build a network of defensive fortifications
Crispy
The following psytrance is baṉned: All
Anyone disappointed by the pace so far should read the timeline for last year's Kherson offensive. They were HIMARSing depots and taking small villages in June/July, made small advances in August, didn't commit large numbers of troops till September, and took till October to liberate the whole oblast.
Obviously the situation doesn't match 1:1 but we are only just getting into the "small advances" phase. As far as I understand it, the idea is to probe probe probe, keep Russia moving reserves around, weakening their logistics and depleting their ammo/morale, and only putting their full weight behind the attack when they're sure they've got a weak enough spot to push it through. Pushing for the sake of pushing, into the blades of a meat grinder, is precisely not what they want to do.
Far too early to tell, in any case. If they're still skirmishing on the front lines, celebrating 500m of liberated territory in a month or two, then we can be disappointed.
Obviously the situation doesn't match 1:1 but we are only just getting into the "small advances" phase. As far as I understand it, the idea is to probe probe probe, keep Russia moving reserves around, weakening their logistics and depleting their ammo/morale, and only putting their full weight behind the attack when they're sure they've got a weak enough spot to push it through. Pushing for the sake of pushing, into the blades of a meat grinder, is precisely not what they want to do.
Far too early to tell, in any case. If they're still skirmishing on the front lines, celebrating 500m of liberated territory in a month or two, then we can be disappointed.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
See, I wouldn't even go that far - I think if the map hasn't changed much by the end of October, then I think there's a problem.
One of the main elements of the Kherson offensive is that it wasn't, broadly, interested in retaking thousands of square miles of territory by punching every Russian nose on that territory, it was by driving deep thrusts into the Russian rear area and cutting off its logistics and room for manouvere - and waiting for the Russians to do their sums, come to the obvious conclusion and withdraw themselves.
Western doctrine, and equipment, and formations, and training are built on this idea - it's much less attritional that advancing on a wide front, but it's one disadvantage is that it (generally) leaves the other guy in possession of a kind of functioning army, even if he's had to withdraw from where he needs to be. In western doctrine this is where airpower is used to destroy the coherent force that remains, but Ukraine may not be able to do that.
One of the main elements of the Kherson offensive is that it wasn't, broadly, interested in retaking thousands of square miles of territory by punching every Russian nose on that territory, it was by driving deep thrusts into the Russian rear area and cutting off its logistics and room for manouvere - and waiting for the Russians to do their sums, come to the obvious conclusion and withdraw themselves.
Western doctrine, and equipment, and formations, and training are built on this idea - it's much less attritional that advancing on a wide front, but it's one disadvantage is that it (generally) leaves the other guy in possession of a kind of functioning army, even if he's had to withdraw from where he needs to be. In western doctrine this is where airpower is used to destroy the coherent force that remains, but Ukraine may not be able to do that.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Isn’t there also an, unpalatable, lesson from Iraq, that it isn’t necessarily a great idea to completely destroy the military and security forces of a country you want to occupy later.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think one of the biggest issues in this war has been the tension between Ukraine, and some NATO states, who wanted Russia defeated and out of Ukraine, and other NATO states who want Russia defeated, out of Ukraine, but not a collapsing Balkans2.0 with 6000 nukes.
FabricLiveBaby!
Live Baby Fabric!
And then there's Victor Orban who wants that bit of transcarpathia back and doesn't care about much else.
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