Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

Blimey:



Screenshot of translation from someone tweeting the vid in French:

View attachment 378750

 

[Chz]

What's the point of doing that? Why not accept that it's not possible to make a credible "estimate" from such a source.

The pro-Russian posts have been very informative, in that the usual crowd on Twitter have done an excellent job of ripping them to shreds and figuring out a lot of what's true and what isn't. The posts of "destroyed" Leopards are a great example. It was only a few hours before we had an analysis that yes, one of them was toast, two were disabled, and the rest was total bullshit and farm equipment. So long as we have people willing to do that job, the Russian information and disinformation is useful data.

 

[StoneRoad]

Blimey:



Screenshot of translation from someone tweeting the vid in French:

View attachment 378750

on the seventh or eight hit in that clip, the resulting explosion - on the far right of the view - looked like it involved phosphorous / incendiaries ...

 

[cupid_stunt]

The pro-Russian posts have been very informative, in that the usual crowd on Twitter have done an excellent job of ripping them to shreds and figuring out a lot of what's true and what isn't. The posts of "destroyed" Leopards are a great example. It was only a few hours before we had an analysis that yes, one of them was toast, two were disabled, and the rest was total bullshit and farm equipment. So long as we have people willing to do that job, the Russian information and disinformation is useful data.

Although I don't think it's been confirmed they were Leopard 2 tanks, rather than Leopard 1 tanks*, which Ukraine has been supplied a lot more of, and they don't have anything like the level of armor protection that the L2's have.

* Or even some other make of tank.

 

[strung out]

Although I don't think it's been confirmed they were Leopard 2 tanks, rather than Leopard 1 tanks*, which Ukraine has been supplied a lot more of, and they don't have anything like the level of armor protection that the L2's have.

* Or even some other make of tank.

Confirmed destroyed: one Leopard 2A4 and one Leopard 2A6

Attack On Europe: Documenting Ukrainian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

www.oryxspioenkop.com

 

[Dogsauce]

The pro-Russian posts have been very informative, in that the usual crowd on Twitter have done an excellent job of ripping them to shreds and figuring out a lot of what's true and what isn't. The posts of "destroyed" Leopards are a great example. It was only a few hours before we had an analysis that yes, one of them was toast, two were disabled, and the rest was total bullshit and farm equipment. So long as we have people willing to do that job, the Russian information and disinformation is useful data.

The main footage of the leopard and cluster of Bradleys that got fucked by mines has been reposted multiple times from different angles by Russian propagandists since it happened about four days ago. This had led to speculation that they haven’t really had much else to show.

 

[The39thStep]

The Wagner leader has been constantly having a go at the Russian leaders for not providing proper equipment for them. Now the Russians have decided that for Wagner to continue working for them they have to sign contracts.

Wagner man says he isn't going to sign them.

These guys are pretty much guns for hire. They won't do contracts etc.

But they might go where the money is. And where the proper equipment and supply lines are. That's 50k highly volatile and paid for people that not only know the Russians plans, but could switch sides in a heartbeat if they aren't getting what they want.

Obvs, I could be wrong.

You could have always read the link though.

Wagner personnel have contracts with Wagner PMC . Wagner PMC has a contract with the Russian Government and contracts with other governments. They do do contracts .

 

[agricola]

Wagner personnel have contracts with Wagner PMC . Wagner PMC has a contract with the Russian Government and contracts with other governments. They do do contracts .

I thought it was pretty well established that the PMC was a front for the Defence Ministry anyway.

 

[gosub]

The pro-Russian posts have been very informative, in that the usual crowd on Twitter have done an excellent job of ripping them to shreds and figuring out a lot of what's true and what isn't. The posts of "destroyed" Leopards are a great example. It was only a few hours before we had an analysis that yes, one of them was toast, two were disabled, and the rest was total bullshit and farm equipment. So long as we have people willing to do that job, the Russian information and disinformation is useful data.

Thought they list a few Bradleys

 

[teqniq]

Pregnant woman and others killed as the Russians shoot at volunteers and those fleeing the Kakhovka Dam flooding

 

[The39thStep]

I thought it was pretty well established that the PMC was a front for the Defence Ministry anyway.

The speculation in 2014 was that it was GRU controlled and connected to both fighting in and assassinations in East Ukraine

 

[planetgeli]

The speculation in 2104 was that it was GRU controlled and connected to both fighting in and assassinations in East Ukraine

That's a bleak future, soothsayer.

 

[The39thStep]

That's a bleak future, soothsayer.

Time traveller

 

[LDC]

I thought it was pretty well established that the PMC was a front for the Defence Ministry anyway.

It's been a bit disputed by a few journalists, but the recent WSJ investigation I posted on the Wagner thread gives a clue about how complicated it might be proving any real links; there's a myriad of companies and fronts around it, hard to get solid info about lines of communication and control, and my uneducated guess from reading a bit on it is it's something fluctuating between being a commercial PMC and also an arm of the Russian State, sometimes acting as both at the same time.

 

[teqniq]

Three dams now blown up according to this tweet. All the Russians seem to know how to do well is destroy civilian infrastructure:

 

[The39thStep]

Wagner has a huge HQ in St Petersburg, a recent recruitment campaign used massive hi tech adverts in Moscow over 30 recruitment centres and an overseas social media campaign offering over 2500 euros a month. They aren't exactly Lee Marvin and the Dirty Dozen posing as guns for hire tbh.

 

[TopCat]

Top Cat just read the fucking thread

I read it and asked you why you think something. Your answer demeans you.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Russian defector who fled on foot speaks to BBC - BBC News

Lieutenant Dmitry Mishov packed a rucksack and headed through the woods to seek asylum in Lithuania.

www.bbc.com

 

[AverageJoe]

I read it and asked you why you think something. Your answer demeans you.

Gutted.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Three dams now blown up according to this tweet. All the Russians seem to know how to do well is destroy civilian infrastructure:

There's more on that now, the destruction has not be independently verified so far.

Ukraine has accused Russian forces of destroying another dam with the aim of slowing a counteroffensive launched by Kyiv.

the Russian military was accused of blowing up a much smaller dam along the Mokri Yaly River, which has become the most successful axis so far for Ukraine’s advances in western Donetsk.

Ukrainian forces have moved along both sides of the river, southwards from the town of Velyka Novosilka, declaring the liberation of a string of villages: Blahodatne on the east bank; Neskuchne, Makarivka and Storozheve on the west side.

And, this on what appears to be slow advances so far.

Ukrainian officials have otherwise been tight-lipped about the counteroffensive, other than to note small territorial gains around Bakhmut, on the northern Donetsk front. The villages along the Mokri Yaly River mark the first settlements to be liberated after a week of counteroffensive, and Kyiv has made much of the capture of these small villages, aware that Ukrainians are nervous after seeing videos of wrecked Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles from failed assaults farther west along the line, in Zaporizhzhia.

Ukrainian military officials have privately called for patience and pointed out they had so far not committed the bulk of Kyiv’s 12 brigade-strong western-armed assault force, to the battle.

“By the way, we didn’t move our main forces yet,” a Ukrainian officer texted from the southern front. “So there are grounds to believe in the best.”

Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying another dam to slow counteroffensive

A week after Kakhovka dam collapse, Kyiv says smaller dam along Mokri Yaly river in Donetsk region has been blown up

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Yep.the Wagner leader (I think) has designs on being the next Putin doesn't he?

Could you give your grounds for this conclusion? It doesn't seem at all likely to me, being as yer man can be unmade at a click of putin's fingers and he doesn't seem to have any actual base of support within the Russian elites, few if any of who wish to see such a person in charge of Russia.

 

[The39thStep]

There's more on that now, the destruction has not be independently verified so far.



View attachment 378833

And, this on what appears to be slow advances so far.

Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying another dam to slow counteroffensive

A week after Kakhovka dam collapse, Kyiv says smaller dam along Mokri Yaly river in Donetsk region has been blown up

www.theguardian.com

Can't understand why this Ukrainian officer is texting when they have a strict info blackout?

 

[AverageJoe]

Sure.

As I've repeatedly said, I'm no expert, but there do seem to be an awful lot of clips (mostly posted on here), where the head of Wagner has criticized the Russians for not properly equipping them and leaving them with no ammo etc in the field.

That's why I wondered out loud that if a large (50k?) unit of trained killers who are essentially being paid as enforcers would get to the stage where they decide that if they aren't getting what they need from the Russian Ministry, then they might well use the bargaining chip of their experience of Russian training, tactics, plans and locations to get better weapons from Ukraine instead.

After all, surely Wagner is only interested in Wagner. And the fall of Putin could allow them a clear run at the Russian Presidency.

Like I always maintain, I'm no expert. This is just thinking out loud. But it's not unknown for people to change sides during war time.

 

[TopCat]

Gutted.

Your moniker fits you well.

 

[existentialist]

Your moniker fits you well.

Yours, maybe not so much.

 

[Pickman's model]

Your moniker fits you well.

he's better than half the other joes

 

[existentialist]

Can't understand why this Ukrainian officer is texting when they have a strict info blackout?

Because there's always one. Or maybe it's sanctioned.

 

[Pickman's model]

Sure.

As I've repeatedly said, I'm no expert, but there do seem to be an awful lot of clips (mostly posted on here), where the head of Wagner has criticized the Russians for not properly equipping them and leaving them with no ammo etc in the field.

That's why I wondered out loud that if a large (50k?) unit of trained killers who are essentially being paid as enforcers would get to the stage where they decide that if they aren't getting what they need from the Russian Ministry, then they might well use the bargaining chip of their experience of Russian training, tactics, plans and locations to get better weapons from Ukraine instead.

After all, surely Wagner is only interested in Wagner. And the fall of Putin could allow them a clear run at the Russian Presidency.

Like I always maintain, I'm no expert. This is just thinking out loud. But it's not unknown for people to change sides during war time.

you post but you haven't engaged brain. it's like the ss turning mob-handed to the russians and saying please forgive our former behaviour. like the auxies and black and tans saying to michael collins please sir can we join your mob. and there is no way on god's green earth that the russians are going to vote for someone like yer man in charge of wagner. a group so dismal they don't even have their own logistics.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Im wondering about the reluctance of western nations to outright pin the blame on russia for the dam breach - (this just in - it was russia). Is it becasue they would then have to do something about it and are not prepated to go any further in the escalation stakes (i.e. internatioanl humanitarian intervention - with the backing of force to stop shit like russia shelling the disaster area)? What Russia has done is not far off setting off a nuke in the destruction stakes.

 

[strung out]

Maybe one for the Why Time Magazine is going down the pan thread