Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[RedRedRose]

I retract all my silly half speculation. The Russians are more stupid and dastardly than I gave them credit for.

 

[The39thStep]

I retract all my silly half speculation. The Russians are more stupid and dastardly than I gave them credit for.

Just as well. I'll try and call off the anti-authoritarian left sink or float test but they may be on their way.

 

[2hats]

Looks like it was spotted by SBIRS too.

U.S. Official Says Spy Satellites Detected Explosion Just Before Dam Collapse

U.S. spy agencies still do not have any solid evidence to determine who caused the destruction, the senior administration official said.

www.nytimes.com

https://archive.is/pAqP2

 

[keybored]

It’s not going to be cheap and it’ll take several years just to build it let alone make the river safe to work and clear the rubble.

And then several years rainfall to fill the basin back up again, I can't remember where but read "around 7 years" somewhere.

 

[keybored]

*

 

[Fez909]

Western tanks in action means the main counter offensive is defo on, then

 

[Chz]

The abandoned ones will most likely be recovered and put back into action at least. But that's the deal with attacking into hardened defences - you're going to lose people and equipment.

 

[kebabking]

Rough rule of thumb - against a mined objective that has artillery support, even with mine clearing gear, you're going to suffer 20-30% casualties even if God is on your side.

 

[Tanya1982]

I think it would be wise to assume that we're not going to fully understand the Ukrainian offensive (and it's shaping operations, deception operations, successes and failures) until it's finished, and that it would be very wise to assume that while an expansionist/imperialist/whatever Russia is next to a Ukraine determined to resist it's rough wooing, it's not going to be finished.

I hadn’t thought of Zelenskyy as the modern Marie de Guise before, but the rough wooing seems like a very good comparison.

 

[Tanya1982]

Rough rule of thumb - against a mined objective that has artillery support, even with mine clearing gear, you're going to suffer 20-30% casualties even if God is on your side.

Emphasises how barbaric it all is, to see it in plain numbers like that. All those young lives that could’ve been doing something - anything - else.

 

[existentialist]

OTOH, Ryan McBeth has an alternative theory - that the dam collapsed as a result of overtopping through from not having sufficient sluices open, possibly because people have to get up into high cranes to move the sluices on the northern side of the dam, and are thus vulnerable to Ukrainian snipers on the northern bank, which undermined the dam itself and caused a collapse.

 

[StoneRoad]

OTOH, Ryan McBeth has an alternative theory - that the dam collapsed as a result of overtopping through from not having sufficient sluices open, possibly because people have to get up into high cranes to move the sluices on the northern side of the dam, and are thus vulnerable to Ukrainian snipers on the northern bank, which undermined the dam itself and caused a collapse.

Think that explanation is unlikely, that area is made up of concrete spillways over the dam face and would have been designed to take water spilling over ie it would have stilling ponds etc
Also the threshold at the top of the sluices, even when the gates are fully raised, would be lower than the crest of the rest of the dam.
Otherwise the water would have scoured away the soil facings ...

 

[existentialist]

Think that explanation is unlikely, that area is made up of concrete spillways over the dam face and would have been designed to take water spilling over ie it would have stilling ponds etc
Also the threshold at the top of the sluices, even when the gates are fully raised, would be lower than the crest of the rest of the dam.
Otherwise the water would have scoured away the soil facings ...

Concrete spillways aren't really good for overtopping - from the various bits I've read and looked at, you just don't let a dam overtop, because if you do, all bets are off. There's a very good YouTube channel on hydrodynamics, but I can't remember what it's called right now...

 

[StoneRoad]

Concrete spillways aren't really good for overtopping - from the various bits I've read and looked at, you just don't let a dam overtop, because if you do, all bets are off. There's a very good YouTube channel on hydrodynamics, but I can't remember what it's called right now...

A good dam design should have a stilling pond / area at the base of a ski-jump spillway - to take most of the energy out of the over spillage.
Kielder's spillway is at the side, and shares the stilling pond with the discharge from the HEP installation ...

If you recall the problem at that dam in the Pennines that had to be pumped out because the dam face had begun to fail & the spillway design was a bit shit ...

 

[existentialist]

Think that explanation is unlikely, that area is made up of concrete spillways over the dam face and would have been designed to take water spilling over ie it would have stilling ponds etc
Also the threshold at the top of the sluices, even when the gates are fully raised, would be lower than the crest of the rest of the dam.
Otherwise the water would have scoured away the soil facings ...

I do also have reservations about his argument, but it doesn't hurt to try on an alternative explanation for size...

 

[T & P]

Western tanks in action means the main counter offensive is defo on, then

It must have come as a massive relief to Russia to see evidence that their weapons can actually defeat a modern Western tank.

 

[RedRedRose]

The abandoned ones will most likely be recovered and put back into action at least. But that's the deal with attacking into hardened defences - you're going to lose people and equipment.

Good call. I heard this has already happened.

Unfortunately, a minor setback brought out quite a few naysayers. Maybe to be expected in the Ukrainian media blackout.

 

[tim]

Good call. I heard this has already happened.

Unfortunately, a minor setback brought out quite a few naysayers. Maybe to be expected in the Ukrainian media blackout.

Give the media blackout, how do you know it's a minor setback?

 

[_Russ_]

It must have come as a massive relief to Russia to see evidence that their weapons can actually defeat a modern Western tank.

Both sides are of course learning all the time, but odd that you imagine Russia didn’t already know it has the weapons available to stop a Leopard and a few Bradleys, successfully using the available kit is another matter, perhaps that’s what you meant?

 

[LDC]

Give the media blackout, how do you know it's a minor setback?

Because it's one incident in one small area across a massive front. Even if it was a loss of the numbers being talked about then it's insignificant in the wider war.

 

[The39thStep]

Whats happened?

 

[LDC]

Whats happened?

Think people are discussing a circulating video of a bunch of supplied AFVs and tanks being attacked and then abandoned by Ukrainian forces. There's a load of waffle coming from a variety of circles about it who are rubbing their hands in glee saying it shows that the offensive has failed/NATO equipment is shit/Russia is winning really/we should stop wasting money supplying arms/etc. etc.

 

[tim]

Whats happened?

Armchair general are marshalling their cruets, pepper pots, and mustard jars and going into battle again.

 

[The39thStep]

Think people are discussing a circulating video of a bunch of supplied AFVs and tanks being attacked and then abandoned by Ukrainian forces. There's a load of waffle coming from a variety of circles about it who are rubbing their hands in glee saying it shows that the offensive has failed/NATO equipment is shit/Russia is winning really/we should stop wasting money supplying arms/etc. etc.

Oh. I'm not interested in tanks and all that. Reminds me of grammar school kids who play rugby tbh.

 

[The39thStep]

Armchair general are marshalling their creuts, pepper pots, and mustard jars and going into battle again.

There will prob be a video on youtube of something like that.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Tanks get damaged, news at 11

I’ll wait until Russian tractors pouncing on unsuspecting Ukrainian tanks before I read to much into it

 

[The39thStep]

I've just finished a fascinating book Ukraine's Unnamed War: Before the Russian Invasion by Dominique Arel and Jesse Driscoll. It analyses the actors involved in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine conflict and the choices they made and could have made and why there was no negotiated resolution.

 

[Kaka Tim]

ISW saying that Ukrainian forces are doing more night time attacks thanks to being well equiped with high-end NATO night vision kit - which the Russians dont have in anything like the same numbers or quality.

 

[kebabking]

It makes a great deal of sense - simply by moving at night knocks a big lump off the effectiveness of the endless number of cheap drones the Russians have for find/strike, and what you can't see, you can't hit.

If you're much more limited to the visual spectrum it makes coordination of counter attacks and tactical withdrawals far more difficult and dangerous, and makes providing effective (and dangerous to the enemy, rather than your own troops) fire support incredibly difficult.

 

[RedRedRose]

Give the media blackout, how do you know it's a minor setback?

People shouldn't read too much into early losses especially considering most of the info is coming from the Russian side, Russia has had chance to create several defensive lines, and we don't know the bigger picture yet.