Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Bahnhof Strasse]

"Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

And yes, Russia has demonstrated, throughout this invasion, a staggering level of incompetence that, even now, its apologists are unable to see.

There is a word in Russian - смекалка - which, directly translated, means "savvy" or "wit". Its darker meaning is the way in which stupid things get done because of constraints of the system. The example I found the word in was from the testing phase of the Ka-29 missile, whose seeker was designed to identify a target and lock on: in practice, it failed to do this, so the solution - in order to get a favourable test result - was to paint the building they were trying to hit bright yellow. Hurrah, a hit (although even that went wrong, as they "helpfuilly" painted the road outside the building yellow, too, and the missile hit that instead) and somewhere along the way, everyone forgot that it was rather unlikely that NATO were going to paint all their buildings yellow.

Rod Hull safe in his windmill, Dorothy less so on her brick road.

 

[existentialist]

Letting the reservoir fill up to overflowing to ensure more downstream destruction is Evil 101 though. I find blowing the dam more plausible, but I wouldn't completely rule out natural causes.

The evidence emerging seems to suggest far more than a "natural" breach of the dam, which one might have expected to have happened progressively, rather than in one huge collapse over a wide area. Engineers are notoriously conservative about risk, and I'd be unsurprised to learn that the dam had been designed to withstand the weight of water even at full height - the bigger danger would have been the physical harm to the dam structure of water overtopping it, which didn't happen.

Obviously, nobody knows for sure, and probably won't until some kind of forensic examination of the damage can be done, but it doesn't seem likely to have been a natural failure.

I note also that Russia is now quite intensively shelling Kherson, in what looks to be a pretty deliberate attempt to interfere with the evacuation process - something they have done repeatedly to civilian evacuations since the early days of the war, for example when attempts were being made to evacuate civilians from Mariupol.

 

[Indeliblelink]

Likely to cause irrigation problems for anything off the North Crimean Canal? When Ukraine blocked it in 2014 after Crimea was annexed it caused huge crop failures.

North Crimean Canal - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Map from 2014, they built some new reservoirs to help overcome the 2014 block since then.

Russia fears Crimea water shortage as supply drops

Russian officials say a water shortage in Crimea threatens to become acute as Ukraine has reduced the supply via a key canal.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[emanymton]

"Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

And yes, Russia has demonstrated, throughout this invasion, a staggering level of incompetence that, even now, its apologists are unable to see.

There is a word in Russian - смекалка - which, directly translated, means "savvy" or "wit". Its darker meaning is the way in which stupid things get done because of constraints of the system. The example I found the word in was from the testing phase of the Ka-29 missile, whose seeker was designed to identify a target and lock on: in practice, it failed to do this, so the solution - in order to get a favourable test result - was to paint the building they were trying to hit bright yellow. Hurrah, a hit (although even that went wrong, as they "helpfuilly" painted the road outside the building yellow, too, and the missile hit that instead) and somewhere along the way, everyone forgot that it was rather unlikely that NATO were going to paint all their buildings yellow.

I head a story about a Russian kettle factory once, that was given a production target, in weight. So they just made very heavy kettles.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

And yes, Russia has demonstrated, throughout this invasion, a staggering level of incompetence that, even now, its apologists are unable to see.

There is a word in Russian - смекалка - which, directly translated, means "savvy" or "wit". Its darker meaning is the way in which stupid things get done because of constraints of the system. The example I found the word in was from the testing phase of the Ka-29 missile, whose seeker was designed to identify a target and lock on: in practice, it failed to do this, so the solution - in order to get a favourable test result - was to paint the building they were trying to hit bright yellow. Hurrah, a hit (although even that went wrong, as they "helpfuilly" painted the road outside the building yellow, too, and the missile hit that instead) and somewhere along the way, everyone forgot that it was rather unlikely that NATO were going to paint all their buildings yellow.

yet so much of what has been ascribed to malice over the past year may be largely due to incompetence given the missile example you provide.

 

[a_chap]

Watch: Water gushes through damaged Ukraine dam

President Zelensky shared a video of the Kakhovka dam, in Kherson region, on his Telegram page.

www.bbc.co.uk

The amount of wildlife that's also going to be killed is just horrific to think about

 

[existentialist]

yet so much of what has been ascribed to malice over the past year may be largely due to incompetence given the missile example you provide.

There can be both - they're not mutually exclusive.

 

[Spymaster]

... I wouldn't completely rule out natural causes.

It would have to go down as the most perfectly timed "natural disaster" or engineering failure in history.

My arse.

 

[Chz]

It would have to go down as the most perfectly timed "natural disaster" or engineering failure in history.

My arse.

Yes, but I'm cautious enough to want to see some evidence of it before I state it definitively. I certainly think it's very likely to have been blown on purpose, but sometimes shit does just happen.
Third possibility is that they've been prepping to blow the dam for ages, but the timing wasn't on purpose. Since it seems like you'd want to wait until you can sweep your enemy away with it, rather than just create a wider river.

 

[Spymaster]

Yes, but I'm cautious enough to want to see some evidence of it before I state it definitively. I certainly think it's very likely to have been blown on purpose, but sometimes shit does just happen.
Third possibility is that they've been prepping to blow the dam for ages, but the timing wasn't on purpose. Since it seems like you'd want to wait until you can sweep your enemy away with it, rather than just create a wider river.

I don't think sweeping your enemy away is as much a goal as causing them to divert huge amounts of resources to prevent and repair fuckloads of flood damage that would otherwise be employed on a military counter-offensive.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Professor Michael Clarke, the Sky News security and defence analyst, has pointed out that it may not be as bad as first thought, as the dam appears to only have been damaged at the top, it has not been totally breached [yet] and seems to be holding below the level of damage. So how bad it is will depend on how far down it is damaged, below that point he expects the dam to still hold back water, but at a lower level.

He also laughed at the suggestion it had been caused by the Ukrainians' shelling it, pointing out no amount of shelling would cause that sort of damage, it would need a lot of explosives, as per the bouncing bombs used by the dam-busters.

 

[Pickman's model]

There can be both - they're not mutually exclusive.

i thought that that was implied in my post

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive.

The flooding killed between 20 000 - 100 000 Ukrainians.

 

[platinumsage]

.

 

[TopCat]

On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive.

The flooding killed between 20 000 - 100 000 Ukrainians.

View attachment 377929View attachment 377930View attachment 377931

Did it hinder the German army advance successfully?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Did it hinder the German army advance successfully?

Temporarily only.

 

[existentialist]

Did it hinder the German army advance successfully?

The purpose wasn't so much to hinder the advance as to deny the Germans the use of the dam and its associated equipment.

The Germans also blew up what remained of it on their retreat, in 1943.

 

[TopCat]

Just had a read of the 1941 dam explosions. The damage was more extensive than we saw this morning.

 

[The39thStep]

On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive.

The flooding killed between 20 000 - 100 000 Ukrainians.

View attachment 377929View attachment 377930View attachment 377931

Built by Russia with American advisers and equipment made in the U.K. It was the ‘star’ in the planned economy at the time .

 

[Artaxerxes]

Just had a read of the 1941 dam explosions. The damage was more extensive than we saw this morning.

The scale of your explosion can go up or down, capital at risk

 

[Pickman's model]

.

that's the best point you've made

 

[Dogsauce]

Watch: Water gushes through damaged Ukraine dam

President Zelensky shared a video of the Kakhovka dam, in Kherson region, on his Telegram page.

www.bbc.co.uk

The amount of wildlife that's also going to be killed is just horrific to think about

There’s some unique (in Europe) habitats downstream that are now inundated. Cunts.

They’re also shelling the military who are trying to rescue people from the Islands in the river, those people are fucked as a consequence.

 

[Nikkormat]

Very much second order of importance as far as old Vlad is concerned.

This podcast is well worth a listen - he's talking about fiefdoms. Kadyrov in this case, but the same rule apply.

Thanks for posting this. Well worth subscribing to.

 

[elbows]

Since the nuclear power plant cooling issue keeps coming up in news reporting of the dams destruction, I thought I should point out this bit from the IAEA which is often missing from the reports:

A main one is the large cooling pond next to the site that by design is kept above the height of the reservoir. As the reactors have been shut down for many months it is estimated that this pond will be sufficient to provide water for cooling for some months. The Agency will confirm this very shortly.

It is therefore vital that this cooling pond remains intact. Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity.

I call on all sides to ensure nothing is done to undermine that.

IAEA Director General Statement to the IAEA Board of Governors | IAEA

www.iaea.org

 

[Bingoman]

Since the nuclear power plant cooling issue keeps coming up in news reporting of the dams destruction, I thought I should point out this bit from the IAEA which is often missing from the reports:

IAEA Director General Statement to the IAEA Board of Governors | IAEA

www.iaea.org

Is the zappoaria(sp)near by?

 

[strung out]

Is the zappoaria(sp)near by?

The nuclear power plant in Enerhodar is nowhere near the blown dam at Nova Kakhovka, but the reservoir is so huge (250km long) that the power plant, over 100km away, still sits on the shore of the reservoir, and relies at least in part on the water levels of the reservoir being controlled and reliable in order to keep the reactors cooled.

Seems like there's no imminent danger of the power plant being in danger, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the ponds of water at the plant coincidentally start leaking as a Ukrainian counter-offensive draws near.

 

[The39thStep]

Letting the reservoir fill up to overflowing to ensure more downstream destruction is Evil 101 though. I find blowing the dam more plausible, but I wouldn't completely rule out natural causes.

What natural causes?

 

[Pickman's model]

What natural causes?

i asked if Chz felt heavy rain might have done it but answer came there none

 

[The39thStep]

i asked if Chz felt heavy rain might have done it but answer came there none

That's one of the problems with diagnosing natural causes over the internet

 

[cupid_stunt]

There was some suggestion that Russia's mismanagement of the dam, resulting in water levels being about 1m higher than normal, could have caused the dam to bust, but that seems to have been dismissed by a range of experts, all saying only a massive amount of explosives could have caused the damage seen.

There's also emerging reports of people living near-by hearing a massive explosion followed by the sound of rushing water, and even eye-witnesses saying the explosion occurred within the dam, all of which point to a deliberate act by the Russians, which frankly always seemed the only logical conclusion.