Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[spitfire]

This is Victoria Ivashko, 9 years old, keen student of judo.

View attachment 377441




This is her grandfather:

View attachment 377442


What is under that sheet is Victoria Ivashko.



Her is her grandmother:

View attachment 377443



Putin's Russia chose to kill Victoria Ivashko on Children's day.



Still, fash in the Azov and that, hey.

Stopped me in my tracks that did yesterday. Mini Fire is 10, loves sport, I cannot even begin to comprehend.

 

[RedRedRose]

Maybe I missed it, but can someone explain what happens if someone joins NATO while they are currently in a war/being occupied?

 

[emanymton]

Maybe I missed it, but can someone explain what happens if someone joins NATO while they are currently in a war/being occupied?

They can't join.

 

[Pickman's model]

Maybe I missed it, but can someone explain what happens if someone joins NATO while they are currently in a war/being occupied?

Countries can't join while they have border disputes or are in the middle of a war

 

[keybored]

Maybe I missed it, but can someone explain what happens if someone joins NATO while they are currently in a war/being occupied?

Even if it were possible they would then face consequences the likes of which have never been seen before. Oh, and another pair of gloves will come off again.

 

[RedRedRose]

They can't join.

Countries can't join while they have border disputes or are in the middle of a war

So, what will the NATO summit offer to Ukraine next month? More, "you can join the alliance after the war"?

This article seems to suggest Ukraine's membership unlikely, but more down to political will than anything else. Is it just snatching at straws?

To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now

In May, for example, Stoltenberg cautioned that although Ukraine would eventually join, becoming a member “in the midst of a war is not the agenda.” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that although the door for Ukraine has opened, it was just “a crack.” Now, he continued, “is not the time to decide.”

Neither Stoltenberg or Pistorius has said exactly why they are opposed to expediting Ukraine’s application, as the bloc did with Finland. But their reasoning is easy enough to infer. NATO may no longer harbor any delusions about the nature of Russia, and it is no longer underestimating the power of Ukrainians. But NATO members do not want to go to war with Russia. And in their minds, admitting Ukraine to NATO in the midst of this conflict could do exactly that.

This fear stems, in part, from NATO’s Article 5 provision, which declares that an armed attack against one of the organization’s members “shall be considered an attack against them all.” Most casual observers believe that means that NATO states are obliged to send troops to defend a member state that’s been attacked. But it does not. What Article 5 stipulates is that each member must take “action as it deems necessary” to help an attacked party—language that gives NATO members a great deal of flexibility.

Even if it were possible they would then face consequences the likes of which have never been seen before.

Kyiv Post put out an interesting response to this hypothetical scenario

1. The West is already a party to the war. Not only because of Russia’s stated foreign strategy aims and objectives, its threat assessments, its military doctrine and concepts supporting its strategic aim and objectives, and its hybrid war against the West but also its inherent imperialistic nature. The EU has already recognized that its member states – most of which are also NATO members – are exposed to a Russian Hybrid War. Acknowledging the conflict and the threat would force NATO to act upon the transgression. It would be the first step in forcing Russia to withdraw.

2. Russia does not want to fight the Alliance. It has done its utmost to limit Western support for Ukraine and not least, avoid a military confrontation with NATO. It succeeded in stopping the US and Europe from helping to rebuild Ukrainian deterrence during the previous 8 years. Since Feb 24, 2022, its previous and ongoing efforts to shape the minds of both populations, as well as key policy and decision-makers in the West has resulted in a slow and incremental inflow of weapons and ammunitions. The West is still struggling to pass the two last “mental hurdles”: Executing a military intervention according to its late strategic concept and the UN “Responsible to Protect” doctrine and accepting Ukraine as a NATO member. Despite Russia’s information and influence operations – backed by its belligerent and outright threatening strategic messaging – Russia has in fact been trying to avoid a military confrontation over fear of being defeated.


3. NATO members are already defending themselves in Ukraine. Eastern Europe has been advocating for NATO to act according to its previous strategic concept for years. Failing to achieve consensus, they have still bilaterally acted according to the concept by providing Ukraine with what it needs at an unprecedented scale and scope. Additionally, most NATO members have long acknowledged that Ukraine is defending European security and stability as well as its shared values and principles. It is our fight to fight, and we should be defending our shared values and principles shoulder-to-shoulder with the Ukrainian soldiers.

4. It could end the war. A simple diplomatic declaration of Ukraine’s NATO membership, would fundamentally change the military balance without firing a shot. By making Ukraine a fully integrated member of the Alliance, NATO becomes an official party to the war on the date of accession. It would mean that if Russia continued attacking Ukraine after its accession into NATO, it would trigger collective defense according to Article 5. It is a NATO “fait accompli”: Accept it or accept the consequences of continuing the war. It provides a clear and non-negotiable red line. As previously argued, it would also offer Putin an off-ramp. Russia will never accept being defeated by Ukraine, a nation it alleges “does not exist”, but it would accept a strategic withdrawal when facing the world’s strongest military alliance.

 

[The39thStep]

So, what will the NATO summit offer to Ukraine next month? More, "you can join the alliance after the war"?

This article seems to suggest Ukraine's membership unlikely, but more down to political will than anything else. Is it just snatching at straws?

To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now





Kyiv Post put out an interesting response to this hypothetical scenario

Always reassured of a view in such a renowned newspaper that says "I have previously argued why a nuclear confrontation is extremely unlikely."

 

[tim]

Even if it were possible they would then face consequences the likes of which have never been seen before. Oh, and another pair of gloves will come off again.

Yes, George Galloway would get really cross.

 

[The39thStep]

Article in The Telegraph illustrated by a photo of two of the Russian Volunteer Corps . Is that insignia just above the magazine on the weapon on the right normal issue ?

 

[Pickman's model]

Article in The Telegraph illustrated by a photo of two of the Russian Volunteer Corps . Is that insignia just above the magazine on the weapon on the right normal issue ?

View attachment 377503

from the tenor of that headline it's alright for countries to wage war for territorial aggrandisement as long as they're not russia

 

[Ming]

Isn't the conventional wisdom that you need a 3:1 advantage in troops if your attacking a defended position? And Ukraine have 60,000 vs 300.000. Probably better trained and equipped but i don't see much success myself. And if a Republican gets in in 2024 Ukraine's NATO aid will shrink massively. Sorry to be Debby Downer but i only see a long war at best.

‘We will succeed’: Zelenskiy says Ukraine ready to launch counteroffensive

Ukraine’s president hints at concern over a possible Trump return in 2024 in Wall Street Journal interview

www.theguardian.com

 

[agricola]

Isn't the conventional wisdom that you need a 3:1 advantage in troops if your attacking a defended position? And Ukraine have 60,000 vs 300.000. Probably better trained and equipped but i don't see much success myself. And if a Republican gets in in 2024 Ukraine's NATO aid will shrink massively. Sorry to be Debby Downer but i only see a long war at best.

‘We will succeed’: Zelenskiy says Ukraine ready to launch counteroffensive

Ukraine’s president hints at concern over a possible Trump return in 2024 in Wall Street Journal interview

www.theguardian.com

the 60,000 aren't going to face all 300,000

 

[Ming]

the 60,000 aren't going to face all 300,000

Fair point. I mean i want Russia pushed out to pre 2014 lines but weight of numbers does have value in a conflict and Russia are just much bigger. I'd prefer if Ukraine decided to delay the offensive until they had the F-16s ready but before the US 2014 elections.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Numerical advantage doesn't count for much if your troops don't have food or ammunition or about to be cut off.

 

[Pickman's model]

Isn't the conventional wisdom that you need a 3:1 advantage in troops if your attacking a defended position? And Ukraine have 60,000 vs 300.000. Probably better trained and equipped but i don't see much success myself. And if a Republican gets in in 2024 Ukraine's NATO aid will shrink massively. Sorry to be Debby Downer but i only see a long war at best.

‘We will succeed’: Zelenskiy says Ukraine ready to launch counteroffensive

Ukraine’s president hints at concern over a possible Trump return in 2024 in Wall Street Journal interview

www.theguardian.com

Strange how general Petraeus who might be expected to have some better inkling than us mere observers doesn't wholly share your pessimism

 

[Ming]

Strange how general Petraeus who might be expected to have some better inkling than us mere observers doesn't wholly share your pessimism

Yeah i've been watching his pronouncements recently. Suspiciously over the top. I wonder what's the purpose of the narrative he's promoting. To raise people's expectations to the point that when they get dashed and Ukraine loses the offensive it'll be easier for the US to wash their hands of it?

 

[jeff_leigh]

Numerical advantage doesn't count for much if your troops don't have food or ammunition or about to be cut off.

Who doesn’t have food or ammunition?

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah i've been watching his pronouncements recently. Suspiciously over the top. I wonder what's the purpose of the narrative he's promoting. To raise people's expectations to the point that when they get dashed and Ukraine loses the offensive it'll be easier for the US to wash their hands of it?

Have you drunk deep from the conspiracy theory tankard recently?

 

[Ming]

Have you drunk deep from the conspiracy theory tankard recently?

Nah. Not into that stuff..(here comes the but)...but then why is this eminent qualified and experienced soldier talking all this bollocks? I am reaching somewhat but i can't see a reason that makes sense.

 

[DownwardDog]

Nah. Not into that stuff..(here comes the but)...but then why is this eminent qualified and experienced soldier talking all this bollocks? I am reaching somewhat but i can't see a reason that makes sense.

Disgraced national security risk Petraeus has consisently talked up Ukraine over the course of this conflict. His motivation for doing so is, at present, unknown...

 

[Ming]

Disgraced national security risk Petraeus has consisently talked up Ukraine over the course of this conflict. His motivation for doing so is, at present, unknown...

Something's rotten in Denmark.

 

[tim]

Something's rotten in Denmark.

A Prince of Denmark is rotting in a crypt in Windsor.

 

[RedRedRose]

In case you missed it, Indonesia decided to wade in with their own peace proposal: de-militarised zones and UN referendums.

Indonesia proposes demilitarised zone, UN referendum for Ukraine peace plan

Indonesia's defence minister on Saturday proposed a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine, calling for a demilitarised zone and a United Nations referendum in what he called disputed territory.

www.reuters.com

 

[LDC]

Article in The Telegraph illustrated by a photo of two of the Russian Volunteer Corps . Is that insignia just above the magazine on the weapon on the right normal issue ?

View attachment 377503

You mean the patch below the magazine on the bloke's chest? Or something else, I can't see what you mean The39thStep?

E2A: Ah, had to go to original pic, download and zoom in. I see what you mean, it's the cocking/bolt charging handle with the swastika on? Aftermarket part with thousands of makers & sellers producing various options, easy to knock out in small workshop, only source I could find for this one online with a quick look was this likely horrible Twitter



When I get asked what I did when I got up early this morning I won't say, 'searching online for AK parts with nazi insignia on'.

 

[The39thStep]

You mean the patch below the magazine on the bloke's chest? Or something else, I can't see what you mean The39thStep?

E2A: Ah, had to go to original pic, download and zoom in. I see what you mean, it's the cocking/bolt charging handle with the swastika on? Aftermarket part with thousands of makers & sellers producing various options, easy to knock out in small workshop, only source I could find for this one online with a quick look was this likely horrible Twitter



When I get asked what I did when I got up early this morning I won't say, 'searching online for AK parts with nazi insignia on'.

Thanks for your investigation. I had it on my phone which is easier to magnify . Yup they are not just fash but nazis, most of the far right have toned it all down mainly as it affects funding and reputation. This lot want a 'white Russia'.

 

[Nikkormat]

I met one of my former students on Friday. He's of mixed Ukrainian/Russian/Belarusian heritage, with close family from the east of Ukraine, and completed his leaving exams (equivalent of A Levels) during the early months of the escalation. Thankfully his family have survived so far, despite a missile destroying his aunt's flat. Most of them have got out now, to Czech Republic and Germany, leaving behind everything and, in the case of those from the east, unsure if they will ever be able to return. One story from thousands, but it hits home a bit more when it's someone you know.

 

[Pickman's model]

Disgraced national security risk Petraeus has consisently talked up Ukraine over the course of this conflict. His motivation for doing so is, at present, unknown...

Unlike so many others who thought that Russia would win in hours/days/a couple of weeks. Maybe we should actually listen to someone who called it right in those chaotic early early days

 

[agricola]

Strange how general Petraeus who might be expected to have some better inkling than us mere observers doesn't wholly share your pessimism

I long for the days when he was the most recent man to almost start a war with the Russians.

 

[Pickman's model]

I long for the days when he was the most recent man to almost start a war with the Russians.

History never remembers the also-rans

 

[Kaka Tim]

Who doesn’t have food or ammunition?

Russia logistics and ability to react quickly (i.e. to avoid getting cut off) have been found severly lacking since they invaded. There are many many examples of defenders with superior numbers getting defeated by numercially smaller opponents due to the attacker having better equipment, better intelligence, better logistics, better morale and better tactics. Ukraine argualby has an advantage in all those areas. Plus Russia is defending a very very wide area so if Ukriaine can concentrate its froces in a few critcal areas it could force a breakthrough and marroon large numbers of Russian forces.