Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[T & P]

I decided to rewatch The Fellowship of the Ring yesterday as they were showing it on TV. Still enjoyable and IMO the best film in the trilogy.

 

[Pickman's model]

Also whilst wars are indeed mainly fought by the poor, they, by definition, aren't fought by the unemployed. Getting unemployed people in to the ranks being one of the reasons wars have historically been so useful for Capital at time of crisis.

I think you'll find the unemployed play their part in the class war

 

[A380]

I think you'll find the unemployed play their part in the class war

Only if they don't own buckets.

 

[AverageJoe]

This was a really cool Russian fantasy film.

Night Watch (2004 film) - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Dogsauce]

There are specialist anti-drone electronic warfare weapons... Certainly quite a few of those in Ukraine. No idea how effective they are. Then more 'traditional' AA platforms that mount autocannons have seen a resurgence due to cost (and availability) relative to missile systems... See existentialist's post above.

Shaheds aren’t really ‘drones’ as commonly understood, they’re really just cheap propeller-driven cruise missiles that head to the gps coordinates of whatever hospital, orphanage or hedgehog sanctuary that Russia has programmed them to hit. There’s no electronic link back to a controller that can be broken to interrupt targeting like a regular drone. GPS/Glonass blocking might work, but hard to do over large areas. They also have quite a low radar signal so hard to detect.

I’ve noted Russia has been using them against provincial centres more in the last few days, where air defence may not have the density it does in Kyiv. Some are getting through.

 

[Ming]

East of Ealing is a masterpiece

I used to live in Ealing and i've been to most of the pubs mentioned in the books (New inn!). I used to gig at a jam night in Brentford and saw Alan Holdsworth at the Arts centre. Halcyon days.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Is the New Inn in Ealing still any good? It used to be my local . Amazing Nachos with guacamole and full toppings (like 15 years ago), then smth happened and it just got that little bit shitter.

My husband and I basically got together smashing candles in that pub.

It got a brushed iron bar and a dry old carvery and they did up the garden.

Then I stopped going.

And eventually I moved to Poland.
We still smash candles.

 

[Ming]

Is the New Inn in Ealing still any good? It used to be my local . Amazing Nachos with guacamole and full toppings (like 15 years ago), then smth happened and it just got that little bit shitter.

My husband and I basically got together smashing candles in that pub.

It got a brushed iron bar and a dry old carvery and they did up the garden.

Then I stopped going.

And eventually I moved to Poland.
We still smash candles.

It's OK. More nostalgia for me (lived in London for about 10 years ending in 1998.

 

[The39thStep]

I'm a Barbie girl, in the Barbie world.
Life in plastic, it's fantastic.
You can brush my hair, undress me everywhere.
Imagination, life is your creation.

Come on, Barbie, let's go party.

 

[Raheem]

View attachment 376716

Come on Barbie, let's join army.

 

[RedRedRose]

Shaheds aren’t really ‘drones’ as commonly understood, they’re really just cheap propeller-driven cruise missiles that head to the gps coordinates of whatever hospital, orphanage or hedgehog sanctuary that Russia has programmed them to hit. There’s no electronic link back to a controller that can be broken to interrupt targeting like a regular drone. GPS/Glonass blocking might work, but hard to do over large areas. They also have quite a low radar signal so hard to detect.

I’ve noted Russia has been using them against provincial centres more in the last few days, where air defence may not have the density it does in Kyiv. Some are getting through.

Thanks for keeping your post on topic!

I note that the Ukrainians are making advances in drone technology and this should go into production shortly.

 

[_Russ_]

There are specialist anti-drone electronic warfare weapons... Certainly quite a few of those in Ukraine. No idea how effective they are. Then more 'traditional' AA platforms that mount autocannons have seen a resurgence due to cost (and availability) relative to missile systems... See existentialist's post above.

They have been testing them for years a couple of miles from me, the problem is they work simply by directing powerful RF to scramble the Drone's flight systems so they have even less of an idea where the thing will impact than if they shoot the thing down

 

[_Russ_]

Shaheds aren’t really ‘drones’ as commonly understood, they’re really just cheap propeller-driven cruise missiles that head to the gps coordinates of whatever hospital, orphanage or hedgehog sanctuary that Russia has programmed them to hit. There’s no electronic link back to a controller that can be broken to interrupt targeting like a regular drone. GPS/Glonass blocking might work, but hard to do over large areas. They also have quite a low radar signal so hard to detect.

I’ve noted Russia has been using them against provincial centres more in the last few days, where air defence may not have the density it does in Kyiv. Some are getting through.

You can disrupt GPS guidance over a wide area far easier than than any other electronic drone counter measure, the problem is that you will probably be utilising GPS systems in that area yourself

(Fairly regular jamming trials are NOTAMed from areas such as Sennybridge the radius of outage or disruption though exaggerated for safety reasons can be very large)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Looks like there's been a sizeable drone attack on Moscow.

The Russian capital has been hit by a rare drone attack that has caused “minor” damage to buildings and no casualties, the city’s mayor said.

“This morning, at dawn, a drone attack caused minor damage to several buildings. All the city’s emergency services are on the scene … No one has been seriously injured so far,” Moscow’s mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a statement on Tuesday.

Russia’s RIA state news agency reported that some residents of a building on Moscow’s Profsoyuznaya Street in the city’s south were being evacuated.

Videos posted to social media purported to show drones flying overheard, being shot down, and debris on the ground from an apparent impact on a tall building.

Several of Russia’s Telegram messaging channels reported that four to 10 drones were shot down.

Drone attacks hit Moscow, sparking fury at the Kremlin

Two are injured in a rare attack on Moscow as more heavy Russian raids target Kyiv, killing at least one person.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Shaheds aren’t really ‘drones’ as commonly understood, they’re really just cheap propeller-driven cruise missiles that head to the gps coordinates of whatever hospital, orphanage or hedgehog sanctuary that Russia has programmed them to hit. There’s no electronic link back to a controller that can be broken to interrupt targeting like a regular drone. GPS/Glonass blocking might work, but hard to do over large areas. They also have quite a low radar signal so hard to detect.

I’ve noted Russia has been using them against provincial centres more in the last few days, where air defence may not have the density it does in Kyiv. Some are getting through.

I was under the impression Russia was very happy for Ukraine to shoot down these devices, to reduce the number of counter-missiles the Ukrainians have.

 

[StoneRoad]

I was under the impression Russia was very happy for Ukraine to shoot down these devices, to reduce the number of counter-missiles the Ukrainians have.

I agree that might be their thinking [?] or at least part of it, but - and it's a big but - Ukraine's air defences also include Gepards and other non-missile based countering methods.
And the Ukrainians are getting quite good at downing shaheds and cruise missiles.
(Not sure of the source now, but not long ago I saw a clip purporting to be a Gepard shooting down a cruise missile ...)

and secondly, "The West" will have quite a supply of anti-missile missiles etc ...
Not sure how good the S-300 system would be as an anti-missile defence ?

 

[MickiQ]

The Ukrainians have managed to shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles (supposedly unstoppable) using Patriots, something even the designers of the Patriot reckoned it couldn't do. It's a safe bet that everything the Ukrainians have learnt is being fed back to make the next generation of Patriots even better. Supplying this stuff has direct benefits for the US military, not only are they getting rid of old stock they would otherwise have to dismantle but are getting to test it against the enemy it was intended to fight.

 

[existentialist]

The Ukrainians have managed to shoot down Russian hypersonic missiles (supposedly unstoppable) using Patriots, something even the designers of the Patriot reckoned it couldn't do. It's a safe bet that everything the Ukrainians have learnt is being fed back to make the next generation of Patriots even better. Supplying this stuff has direct benefits for the US military, not only are they getting rid of old stock they would otherwise have to dismantle but are getting to test it against the enemy it was intended to fight.

TBF, it's likely that Russia were overhyping the capabilities of the Kinzhal missile, and it's probably fair to say that the small print on the Patriot specs don't guarantee interception of such missiles, but there appears to be a nice overlap between the two.

And it's worth noting that the Ukrainians have been getting rather better out of quite a lot of their supplied kit than was (apparently) being expected, including using the HIMARS missiles effectively at extreme ranges. Of course, the US/Ukraine may have been making a lot of noise about what the range supposedly was, to encourage the Russians to put their Important Stuff just out of range, only to have it walloped anyway...lying is an essential part of warfare, after all.

 

[Pickman's model]

TBF, it's likely that Russia were overhyping the capabilities of the Kinzhal missile, and it's probably fair to say that the small print on the Patriot specs don't guarantee interception of such missiles, but there appears to be a nice overlap between the two.

And it's worth noting that the Ukrainians have been getting rather better out of quite a lot of their supplied kit than was (apparently) being expected, including using the HIMARS missiles effectively at extreme ranges. Of course, the US/Ukraine may have been making a lot of noise about what the range supposedly was, to encourage the Russians to put their Important Stuff just out of range, only to have it walloped anyway...lying is an essential part of warfare, after all.

all warfare is based on deception
--sun tzu

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

Anyone really think the drone attack is Ukraine? I don't see what possible benefit Ukraine gets from it tbh.

My spidey senses are tingling.

 

[existentialist]

Anyone really think the drone attack is Ukraine? I don't see what possible benefit Ukraine gets from it tbh.

My spidey senses are tingling.

It would be an appalling failure on the part of Russia's air defence that so many "Ukrainian" drones made it to Moscow, so I'm inclined to agree. And Russia has form for attacking its own in order to create a justification for whatever they're doing - the 1999 apartment bombings, for example, which Putin used as a justification for going into Chechnya.

So much of what Russia has been doing in Ukraine seems to have been more about creating propaganda for its own people that it's hard to rule out the possibility that they attacked their own city in order to bolster up enthusiasm for its war in Ukraine.

 

[cupid_stunt]

It would be an appalling failure on the part of Russia's air defence that so many "Ukrainian" drones made it to Moscow, so I'm inclined to agree. And Russia has form for attacking its own in order to create a justification for whatever they're doing - the 1999 apartment bombings, for example, which Putin used as a justification for going into Chechnya.

So much of what Russia has been doing in Ukraine seems to have been more about creating propaganda for its own people that it's hard to rule out the possibility that they attacked their own city in order to bolster up enthusiasm for its war in Ukraine.

Not only that BiB, they could also be trying to stir up concerns in other countries that weapons being sent to Ukraine will end-up being used in Russia, making them more weary about supplying fighter jets.

Basically, there's no way to know, as Ukraine isn't going to admit it was them.

 

[existentialist]

Not only that BiB, they could also be trying to stir up concerns in other countries that weapons being sent to Ukraine will end-up being used in Russia, making them more weary about supplying fighter jets.

Basically, there's no way to know, as Ukraine isn't going to admit it was them.

Ukraine has done such an excellent job of not admitting stuff that could well have been them that it muddies the picture considerably . Which is useful, as it rather dilutes the argument that you point out - they're keeping the information space very murky and blurred, which just points up Russia's rather crude efforts at propaganda as exactly that.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Ukraine has done such an excellent job of not admitting stuff that could well have been them that it muddies the picture considerably . Which is useful, as it rather dilutes the argument that you point out - they're keeping the information space very murky and blurred, which just points up Russia's rather crude efforts at propaganda as exactly that.

Although this comment suggests they were 'indirectly involved'...

Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak denied Kyiv was directly involved in targeting Moscow on Tuesday, though he said “we are pleased to watch” and forecast more to come.

Or, he could just be trolling the Russians.

Drone attacks hit Moscow, sparking fury at the Kremlin

Two are injured in a rare attack on Moscow as more heavy Russian raids target Kyiv, killing at least one person.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[existentialist]

Although this comment suggests they were 'indirectly involved'...



Or, he could just be trolling the Russians.

Drone attacks hit Moscow, sparking fury at the Kremlin

Two are injured in a rare attack on Moscow as more heavy Russian raids target Kyiv, killing at least one person.

www.aljazeera.com

Ukraine is doing some world-class trolling, TBF...

 

[MickiQ]

“You will either defeat the enemy as a single fist with our Motherland, or the indelible shame of cowardice, collaboration and betrayal will engulf your family,”

That speech is rehearsed, come on no-one says that on impulse. My money is on false flag, it's not like the Russians care in the slightest about their own civilian population.

 

[krtek a houby]

I used to live in Ealing and i've been to most of the pubs mentioned in the books (New inn!). I used to gig at a jam night in Brentford and saw Alan Holdsworth at the Arts centre. Halcyon days.

New Inn did a great Sunday roast, although for vibes, preferred the Red Lion a few minutes walk from it

 

[StoneRoad]

Anyone really think the drone attack is Ukraine? I don't see what possible benefit Ukraine gets from it tbh.

My spidey senses are tingling.

I don't think that it was the Ukrainians, at least, not directly.

Firstly, they've got much better things to do with "limited" supplies in terms of attacking military targets much closer to home, within their land boundaries.
Secondly, attacking civilian targets would lower them to ru55ian levels.
Thirdly, they've got their hands full[-ish] with planning / executing the counter-attacks & counter-offensive.

Fourthly, the ru55ians have form for attacking themselves for propaganda purposes.
Fifthly, there are armed factions in the various dissident groupings.
Sixthly, allowing such an attack "proves" how pants the Pantsirs are ...

 

[kebabking]

For myself, a 'false flag' seems quite possible, and you can see the potential domestic political advantage, but it requires a great many more people, and structures, to pull it off that a much more simple 'terrorist' bomb attack on the subway or whatever.

That makes it inherently less secure, and we know how our friend feels about secrecy.

Such a thing also brings huge dangers - look at the Mathias Rust thing in 88(?) - it caused a huge kerfuffle within the Soviet power structures: military, KGB, politburo - it's a can of worms, and even if the false bit never leaks (ha!), the fall out can be unpredictable.

A shaping operation by Ukraine seems - to me - much more likely. it would be about shaking faith in the Russian military, and the wider government, sowing suspicion and confusion within the military and wider government with lots of people, even at senior levels, asking 'what the hell's going on?', perhaps causing some rapid removal of air defence assets from the Ukrainian front to Moscow - all of those things are good for Ukraine, and bad for Putin.

A state that's at war, and when it's going badly, that looks in on itself is not going to improve its prospects - think of the 20th July 1944 bomb attack on Hitler: 6 weeks after the D-day landings, a month before the fall of Paris, and in the middle of the Soviet Army's Operation Bagration, in which 2.5 million Soviet soldiers destroyed the German Army Group Centre, killing half a million German soldiers, and moving the Eastern Front from Russia to the outskirts of Warsaw in 6 weeks. And what was the entire German state, it's political leadership, it's intelligence and security organs, it's military - doing while these existential threats were marching towards it? It was turning on itself, denouncing everyone, and having a blood-letting.

There are many reasons why Germany lost vast swathes of territory from mid-1944 onwards, a good proportion of them structural, with the same outcome every time, but having a orgy of recrimination and internal rivalries at the same time did not help...

Oh well, tragic...

 

[strung out]

Maybe Putin will use these drone attacks on Moscow as an excuse to invade Ukraine and rain destruction down on the Ukrainian people?

Or maybe it's just a Ukrainian attack using Ukrainian drones to draw more Russian air defence away from other areas.