Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[cupid_stunt]

Well, judging by the 'noise level' this morning things are starting to speed up with the spring offensive, but it's not very clear what exactly is going on as the Ukrainians
understandably are not saying anything, I guess it'll be a while before we start getting reliable reports.

Whilst this is unlikely to bring the war to an end, let's hope it's the beginning of the end, because the alternative doesn't bear thinking of.

Great little video getting the message out to their own troops, and probably worrying the Russians too.

 

[StoneRoad]

The way the radio news this morning came across and ISW's reports / maps covering yesterday's events have been in conflict, and rather confused me as to what has actually happened.
However, on the ISW map some areas of yellow have disappeared and blue ones have appeared in their place.

 

[kebabking]

I think it would be wise to assume that we're not going to fully understand the Ukrainian offensive (and it's shaping operations, deception operations, successes and failures) until it's finished, and that it would be very wise to assume that while an expansionist/imperialist/whatever Russia is next to a Ukraine determined to resist it's rough wooing, it's not going to be finished.

 

[LDC]

The way the radio news this morning came across and ISW's reports / maps covering yesterday's events have been in conflict, and rather confused me as to what has actually happened.
However, on the ISW map some areas of yellow have disappeared and blue ones have appeared in their place.

StoneRoad when you look at the ISW website do you get a little pop-up saying something like, 'Dave X from Smalltown has just donated $45 to ISW'? I live in a small town in Yorkshire and get that with my town being where Dave (or whoever) is every time I look at ISW. It's clearly bollocks marketing/donation encouragement, I'd happily bet I'm the only person that lives here looking at ISW!

E2A: Unless my little town is secretly full of armchair general walting NATO shills....

 

[Artaxerxes]

StoneRoad when you look at the ISW website do you a little pop-up saying something like, 'Dave X from Smalltown has just donated $45 to ISW'? I live in a small town in Yorkshire and get that with my town being where Dave (or whoever) is every time I look at ISW. It's clearly bollocks marketing/donation encouragement, I'd happily bet I'm the only person that lives here looking at ISW!

If I want a map I usually sniff out the Rybar one

 

[StoneRoad]

StoneRoad when you look at the ISW website do you get a little pop-up saying something like, 'Dave X from Smalltown has just donated $45 to ISW'? I live in a small town in Yorkshire and get that with my town being where Dave (or whoever) is every time I look at ISW. It's clearly bollocks marketing/donation encouragement, I'd happily bet I'm the only person that lives here looking at ISW!

E2A: Unless my little town is secretly full of armchair general walting NATO shills....

yeah I get that, plus a few people from other places - I usually block the popup via the adblocker.
now I'm wondering how it would deal with my using a vpn ...

 

[StoneRoad]

If I want a map I usually sniff out the Rybar one

I look at the isw map as well as the ones from livemap, deepstate and the one on wiki that covers control of settlements.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Also to put into the mix is the toxic divisions between the Russian Army and Wagner group - so there is no co-ordinated overall defence. How the fuck putin has allowed that situation to develop is pretty mystifying.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Also to put into the mix is the toxic divisions between the Russian Army and Wagner group - so there is no co-ordinated overall defence. How the fuck putin has allowed that situation to develop is pretty mystifying.

If they’re busy fighting between each other, they’re distracted from usurping Putin.

Tactic as old as the hills. Hitler used it extensively.

 

[Kaka Tim]

If they’re busy fighting between each other, they’re distracted from usurping Putin.

Tactic as old as the hills. Hitler used it extensively.

but also distracted from fighting the ukranians

 

[kebabking]

but also distracted from fighting the ukranians

Very much second order of importance as far as old Vlad is concerned.

This podcast is well worth a listen - he's talking about fiefdoms. Kadyrov in this case, but the same rule apply.

 

[The39thStep]

It’s becoming like a re make of Springtime for Hitler

 

[LDC]

It’s becoming like a re make of Springtime for Hitler

Covered by NYT today.

Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History

Troops’ use of patches bearing Nazi emblems risks fueling Russian propaganda and spreading imagery that the West has spent a half-century trying to eliminate.

www.nytimes.com

 

[The39thStep]

Covered by NYT today.

Nazi Symbols on Ukraine’s Front Lines Highlight Thorny Issues of History

Troops’ use of patches bearing Nazi emblems risks fueling Russian propaganda and spreading imagery that the West has spent a half-century trying to eliminate.

www.nytimes.com

In some ways the article misses a very important point : it’s not the impact on the Russians and their propaganda , it’s not even the impact on Western supporters of Ukraine , it’s the impact of the normalisation of far right symbols , ideology and now armed fascists in a post war civil society in Ukraine.

 

[T & P]

Top trolling by the Ukrainians yet again

Deepfake video of Putin declaring mobilisation broadcast on state TV

Television and radio waves were hijacked for 20 minutes as military prepares for Ukraine’s counter-offensive

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[platinumsage]

So the Kakhovka dam has gone. People seem to be blaming the Russians and saying it will significantly affect the Ukrainian offensive, but they must have known this was likely to happen at some point. Also it would seem to isolate the occupiers in southern Ukraine from Kherson al lthe way through towards Mariopul meaning they can't be resupplied from Crimea or retreat there.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Top trolling by the Ukrainians yet again

Deepfake video of Putin declaring mobilisation broadcast on state TV

Television and radio waves were hijacked for 20 minutes as military prepares for Ukraine’s counter-offensive

www.telegraph.co.uk

Cable TV networks in Crimea were also hacked yesterday, and carried that 'plans love silence' video, that's in the first post on this page.

 

[strung out]

Also it would seem to isolate the occupiers in southern Ukraine from Kherson al lthe way through towards Mariopul meaning they can't be resupplied from Crimea or retreat there.

Not sure this is true?

There's still railway and road connections between Crimea and the rest of occupied Ukraine far from where the flooding is likely to occur.

Map of southern Ukraine and Crimea (dam circled):



And a map of the likely flooding downstream of the blown dam:



There will be consequences for the Crimean water supply, as well as knock on effects to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant further up, but can't see that transport in and out of Crimea will be affected? Certainly not to the point of isolating everything across to Mariupol, which is extremely close to the Russian border anyway.

 

[platinumsage]

Thanks, I should have looked at a map before posting.

 

[LDC]

Thanks, I should have looked at a map before posting.

Do you moonlight as a Russian military planner by any chance?

 

[Artaxerxes]

Do you moonlight as a Russian military planner by any chance?

NATO turned the map upside down against him

 

[Pickman's model]

Do you moonlight as a Russian military planner by any chance?

have you not noticed that platinumsage contains putin?

 

[maomao]

have you not noticed that platinumsage contains putin?

It's an anagram of 'a Putin gleams' perhaps suggesting his fondness for the Russian leader.

 

[spitfire]

I've not fact checked this but huge if true.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've not fact checked this but huge if true.

yeh it's 832 sq miles Kakhovka Reservoir - Wikipedia

 

[Flavour]

My mate's family in Oleshky, on the other side of the river from Kherson, are well and truly fucked now. Zero chance of getting out of there. The water is already too high. They should have evacuated months ago but refused, not wanting to believe this day would come. But here it is.

 

[kebabking]

Saw this thread from a journalist on NPR in the US - doesn't, because who can, rule out the Russians doing it deliberately, but makes a convincing/plausible argument that this is simply the Russians being their normal careless/incompetent selves - Chernobyl, Lake Baikal, rotting nuclear subs in the Arctic etc...

 

[existentialist]

Saw this thread from a journalist on NPR in the US - doesn't, because who can, rule out the Russians doing it deliberately, but makes a convincing/plausible argument that this is simply the Russians being their normal careless/incompetent selves - Chernobyl, Lake Baikal, rotting nuclear subs in the Arctic etc...

"Never ascribe to malice that which can be explained by incompetence".

And yes, Russia has demonstrated, throughout this invasion, a staggering level of incompetence that, even now, its apologists are unable to see.

There is a word in Russian - смекалка - which, directly translated, means "savvy" or "wit". Its darker meaning is the way in which stupid things get done because of constraints of the system. The example I found the word in was from the testing phase of the Ka-29 missile, whose seeker was designed to identify a target and lock on: in practice, it failed to do this, so the solution - in order to get a favourable test result - was to paint the building they were trying to hit bright yellow. Hurrah, a hit (although even that went wrong, as they "helpfuilly" painted the road outside the building yellow, too, and the missile hit that instead) and somewhere along the way, everyone forgot that it was rather unlikely that NATO were going to paint all their buildings yellow.

 

[Chz]

Letting the reservoir fill up to overflowing to ensure more downstream destruction is Evil 101 though. I find blowing the dam more plausible, but I wouldn't completely rule out natural causes.

 

[Pickman's model]

Letting the reservoir fill up to overflowing to ensure more downstream destruction is Evil 101 though. I find blowing the dam more plausible, but I wouldn't completely rule out natural causes.

have there been unreported massive deluges of rain in ukraine / people's republic of putin lately?