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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Humberto said:
I didn't condemn. That seems more your objective if I'm honest. I said solidarity with those fighting the invasion. And yeah I would criticise those who would leave them hanging in desperation, to be left isolated and overrun with all the predictable results that would follow.
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Which means what actually? What is your actual solidarity?
 
A380 said:
Me? heaven forfend.

But I was nit picking that there had been mobilisation by Russia against the UK. Pedantic in terms of context and adding little to the debate sure, but still I'm technically both correct and potentially annoying
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You're not really technically correct being as the mobilisation under discussion was that of Russian armed forces for war. Nor are you potentially annoying, but really so.
 
NoXion said:
Whether an invasion is likely or not is beside the point. It's easy to be "principled" when it's not your home being flattened by artillery.
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Yes it is easier for us in the UK to make decisions about how to negotiate the class war. Which is all the more reason why socialists in the UK should do so, should not just fall in behind the liberal nationalism of the big political parties, of capital and the state.

I've never argued for Ukrainian workers not to take up arms, I don't think I have that right. But I will criticise UK "socialists' that throw away the class war
 
redsquirrel said:
I've never argued for Ukrainian workers not to take up arms, I don't think I have that right. But I will criticise UK "socialists' that throw away the class war
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I think the 2 almost opposite positions are the easiest ones to hold; a 'pure' NWBTCW (or even a pacifist) position that opposes the war and all sides and fighting absolutely, or one that does 'throw away the class war' into a national Ukrainian struggle as you say. The more important and more complex one is how to fight the Russian State's invasion while not also throwing away that wider political struggle. It's a position that plenty of people in Ukraine have managed to hold though.

If you accept Ukrainian workers should take up arms (or at least you don't argue that they shouldn't redsquirrel) then logically also accepting some supply of those arms is part of the needed direction or support?
 
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LDC said:
I think the 2 almost opposite positions are the easiest ones to hold; a 'pure' NWBTCW (or even a pacifist) position that opposes the war and all sides and fighting absolutely, or one that does 'throw away the class war' as you say. The more important and more complex one is how to fight the Russian State's invasion while not also throwing away the wider political struggle. It's a position that plenty of people in Ukraine have managed to hold though.

If you accept Ukrainian workers should take up arms (or at least you don't argue that they shouldn't redsquirrel) then logically also accepting some supply of those arms is part of the needed direction or support?
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Yes. But what will it profit the Ukrainians to beat the russians to find they've been bought by the Americans not to mention British French and Germans, that they're no longer masters in their own land? Loans with 46% interest. Various demands about how the future Ukraine will be organised. I suppose it's better to be alive to moan about the crappy future. But I don't suppose western domination of their economy is what any Ukrainian is actually fighting for. Those weapons come with quite a price tag.
 
Pickman's model said:
Yes. But what will it profit the Ukrainians to beat the russians to find they've been bought by the Americans not to mention British French and Germans, that they're no longer masters in their own land? Loans with 46% interest. Various demands about how the future Ukraine will be organised. I suppose it's better to be alive to moan about the crappy future. But I don't suppose western domination of their economy is what any Ukrainian is actually fighting for. Those weapons come with quite a price tag.
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I think you'd have to have a spectacularly poor grasp of history, and of the way the current Russian state acts, to not understand why Ukrainians would soil themselves laughing at the ridiculous nature of your comparison...
 
kebabking said:
I think you'd have to have a spectacularly poor grasp of history, and of the way the current Russian state acts, to not understand why Ukrainians would soil themselves laughing at the ridiculous nature of your comparison...
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I wouldn't expect anyone so closely er aligned with nato to say anything else. The Ukrainians are very unlikely to lose militarily. They're also not going to be the big winners, who'll be in Washington, Brussels and London.

E2A for all your flourish i note you don't actually deny my point, which is that however this turns out the Ukrainians lose. They lose perhaps more if the russians were to win, certainly more in the immediate future. But they lose just as certainly even should they defeat Russia either on the battlefield or in the negotiations. For example, it seems foreign land ownership used to be banned but while formal prohibitions yet remain much land has found its ways into foreign hands The Economic Invasion Of Ukraine Which Started Much Before 2022| Countercurrents. And even at the moment the imf are in Ukraine IMF staff mission to conduct first review of Ukraine loan later in May checking how progress on the policy changes etc demanded are going. The Ukrainians may regain their 2013 borders. But they're losing economic sovereignty.
 
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LDC said:
If you accept Ukrainian workers should take up arms (or at least you don't argue that they shouldn't redsquirrel) then logically also accepting some supply of those arms is part of the needed direction or support?
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I think anarchist groups making demands of governments is always a rather silly contradiction, and frankly considering the current size of UK anarchism ridiculous. Surely the crucial point has to come down what we can do in terms of organising and political activity?

I'm not certainly going to organise alongside the racists, conspiraloons, and shitheads like Galloway that make up a large proposition of the "anti-imperialist" cranks.
At the same time I won't organise alongside the NAFO pricks like Paul Massaro, the Atlantic Council, the UK government, the Labour Party, UK capital etc for an expansion of NATO, increase in money to arms companies/defence industry, etc.

So, as I said before, as far as I can see the real practical political activity anarchists/communists/socialists can take is pretty limited - providing some support (financial, propaganda) to our comrades in Ukraine, Russia and Belarus, and trying to articulate a politics that is 'neither NAFO nor No2NATO'. And even on the second while I would not rule out some level of organising, there are other arenas that I think are more useful to organise around.
 
I wonder how many Storm Shadow missiles the UK has sent? I mean they're pretty pricey. GBP2,000,000 a pop I read.
 
Pickman's model said:
Reckon we'll see more of z as the election approaches
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He might get more invites, but the reason he's coming is desperation. If Trump wins the US election in November, then Ukraine's munitions support and intelligence gathering support will drop by 50+% on the 5th January. Zelensky has this summer/Autumn to get the Russians - effectively - out. There's a good chance (though quite the exact nature of that chance I don't know, because I'm not an expert on US domestic politics) that the lines that Ukraine manages to achieve by late November are going to be the lines it has to live with.

And, obviously, he knows that he's not going to know if November is his last throw until November - which means he has to get as much done as humanly possible.

To an extent, he's pushing against Schrödingers' door, it's both open and closed. Open because the rest of Europe see's the same thing, but closed because Europe also suspects, with good reason imv, that if Trump becomes president in January, he will effectively withdraw the US from NATO, which means that Europe will be on its own, and that each pallet load of 155m artillery shells that are sent to Ukraine, means a pallet load less for them if shit goes bad.

Squeeky bum time.
 
kebabking said:
He might get more invites, but the reason he's coming is desperation. If Trump wins the US election in November, then Ukraine's munitions support and intelligence gathering support will drop by 50+% on the 5th January. Zelensky has this summer/Autumn to get the Russians - effectively - out. There's a good chance (though quite the exact nature of that chance I don't know, because I'm not an expert on US domestic politics) that the lines that Ukraine manages to achieve by late November are going to be the lines it has to live with.

And, obviously, he knows that he's not going to know if November is his last throw until November - which means he has to get as much done as humanly possible.

To an extent, he's pushing against Schrödingers' door, it's both open and closed. Open because the rest of Europe see's the same thing, but closed because Europe also suspects, with good reason imv, that if Trump becomes president in January, he will effectively withdraw the US from NATO, which means that Europe will be on its own, and that each pallet load of 155m artillery shells that are sent to Ukraine, means a pallet load less for them if shit goes bad.

Squeeky bum time.
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US election isn't until next year, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's a certain amount of drop off in weapons supply from the US as attention turns to the election campaign next summer.
 
kebabking said:
He might get more invites, but the reason he's coming is desperation. If Trump wins the US election in November, then Ukraine's munitions support and intelligence gathering support will drop by 50+% on the 5th January. Zelensky has this summer/Autumn to get the Russians - effectively - out. There's a good chance (though quite the exact nature of that chance I don't know, because I'm not an expert on US domestic politics) that the lines that Ukraine manages to achieve by late November are going to be the lines it has to live with.

And, obviously, he knows that he's not going to know if November is his last throw until November - which means he has to get as much done as humanly possible.

To an extent, he's pushing against Schrödingers' door, it's both open and closed. Open because the rest of Europe see's the same thing, but closed because Europe also suspects, with good reason imv, that if Trump becomes president in January, he will effectively withdraw the US from NATO, which means that Europe will be on its own, and that each pallet load of 155m artillery shells that are sent to Ukraine, means a pallet load less for them if shit goes bad.

Squeeky bum time.
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there's a lot of ifs there - if trump stands, if trump wins the nomination, if trump wins the election. but i'll throw in a couple more, if biden wins and if shit starts to really hit the fan with china, then the same thing might happen, if the ukraine conflict's still going on then. every himars rocket, every manpad, every load of artillery shells will be needed by the american army. the intelligence assets currently watching russia and ukraine will be needed elsewhere. in january 2025 zelensky may find he has a most supportive ally in the white house, but events may mean they need to turn away. after all, as (no doubt) a keen reader of prism you'll have read the article 'the 21st century's great military rivalry' in the sept 2022 issue PRISM 10-1 - perhaps also the article 'defining and achieving success in ukraine' in the same number.
 
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