Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[The39thStep]

would they? wilson kept britain out of vietnam. Blair loved putting on his winston churchill hat - but im not sure you can say the same about Brown. Or John Major. Blair was instrumental in the UK joining the US invasion - pretty much every other western nation was against it. Also Blair had a big majority and a lot of poltical secutiry. Cameron may well had a more diffifuclt job pushing a reluctant nation to war.

Wilson of course supported the US in Vietnam but fell short of committing troops partly because of his own doubts about the US bombing campaign but not least because of Labour Conference opposition, a good 150 or so Labour MPs opposed. to intervention plus the trade unions' opposition .The UK was also at that time had the issues of Malaysia and then Borneo to deal with.

The Labour Party was a different beast then than the one which Blair led.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't believe this war would necessarily have happened if Putin wasn't in power, a different leader could easily have taken Russia in a very different direction.

Even Putin was looking at taking Russia in a different direction when he first came to power, let's not forget that he even expressed an interest in joining NATO.

George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary who led Nato between 1999 and 2003, said Putin made it clear at their first meeting that he wanted Russia to be part of western Europe. “They wanted to be part of that secure, stable prosperous west that Russia was out of at the time,” he said.

The Labour peer recalled an early meeting with Putin, who became Russian president in 2000. “Putin said: ‘When are you going to invite us to join Nato?’ And [Robertson] said: ‘Well, we don’t invite people to join Nato, they apply to join Nato.’ And he said: ‘Well, we’re not standing in line with a lot of countries that don’t matter.’”

The account chimes with what Putin told the late David Frost in a BBC interview shortly before he was first inaugurated as Russian president more than 21 years ago. Putin told Frost he would not rule out joining Nato “if and when Russia’s views are taken into account as those of an equal partner”.

He told Frost it was hard for him to visualise Nato as an enemy. “Russia is part of the European culture. And I cannot imagine my own country in isolation from Europe and what we often call the civilised world.”

Ex-Nato head says Putin wanted to join alliance early on in his rule

George Robertson recalls Russian president did not want to wait in line with ‘countries that don’t matter’

www.theguardian.com

 

[The39thStep]

According to this article in Declassified, there was a bit more going on behind the scenes with Wilson and Vietnam

Britain’s secret role in the brutal US war in Vietnam

There is a myth the UK did not support Washington’s war against Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s. In fact, Labour and Conservative governments backed every phase of US military escalation and played secret roles in the conflict, declassified files show.

declassifieduk.org

 

[Pickman's model]

would they? wilson kept britain out of vietnam. Blair loved putting on his winston churchill hat - but im not sure you can say the same about Brown. Or John Major. Blair was instrumental in the UK joining the US invasion - pretty much every other western nation was against it. Also Blair had a big majority and a lot of poltical secutiry. Cameron may well had a more diffifuclt job pushing a reluctant nation to war.

Didn't see John major holding back in 1991 did you

 

[Pickman's model]

I've no idea but this notion that one person can't push a nation into war is clearly flawed. Circumstances may create a volatile political landscape but one powerful cunt of a man like Putin can manipulate that to bring about unnecessary war. See also: Hitler.

Have you ever actually read anything about the causes of the second world war?

 

[A380]

Maybe someone with a time machine can go back and assassinate Hitler and Putin before either of them came to power.

I'm sure that would make everything OK.

Kill Hitler

xkcd.com

 

[sleaterkinney]

Politicians make errors of judgement, or they may take risks that not everyone would take, and those things can have consequences. It's not much of a stretch to say that you could, in some XBox game version of history, swap the decision-makers and get a different decision.

Cameron made a poor decision by promising the Brexit. Blair made a poor decision by supporting (indeed, encouraging) the invasion of Iraq.

In Putin's case, he made what appears to be a very poor decision by getting into a war that Russia's military was not prepared for. Whatever the underlying factors, a more able leader in his position might have made a better analysis of the situation and realised it was not such a great idea.

From his point of view though, he had annexed Crimea and the Donbas without much trouble. He was probably surprised or mislead about how much Ukraine would resist.

 

[Raheem]

From his point of view though, he had annexed Crimea and the Donbas without much trouble. He was probably surprised or mislead about how much Ukraine would resist.

Probably. But this would only go to further show that his actions were not the inevitable playing-out of a course of history predetermined by invisible hands. Rather, the decision would then seem to have required him to fundamentally misunderstand what it was that he was deciding.

 

[The39thStep]

From his point of view though, he had annexed Crimea and the Donbas without much trouble. He was probably surprised or mislead about how much Ukraine would resist.

That and miscalculating the attachment of the Russian-speaking population to the Ukrainian state, despite the fact that in some of those areas the population felt that Kyiev often neglected and ignored their wishes and stigmatised them. Ironically a combination of the invasion and that attachment has brought about an increased cohesion within the Ukrainian State even though a return to peace would still leave many issues unresolved.

 

[agricola]

Politicians make errors of judgement, or they may take risks that not everyone would take, and those things can have consequences. It's not much of a stretch to say that you could, in some XBox game version of history, swap the decision-makers and get a different decision.

Cameron made a poor decision by promising the Brexit. Blair made a poor decision by supporting (indeed, encouraging) the invasion of Iraq.

In Putin's case, he made what appears to be a very poor decision by getting into a war that Russia's military was not prepared for. Whatever the underlying factors, a more able leader in his position might have made a better analysis of the situation and realised it was not such a great idea.

TBF I think the poor decision made that led to all this was in 2014 - by removing Crimea and (effectively) the parts of the Donbas they controlled from the Ukrainian electorate it also removed many of the political influence options that he had.

If he'd waited for the "pro-Western" government to prove itself as bent as all the others he'd probably have been able to overthrow them within a year or two.

 

[kabbes]

Errm isn't that whataboutery?

I'm not convinced "whataboutery" is always a proper counter argument by the way. "You pushed me " "Yes well you'd just kicked me in the balls" "Stop with the whataboutary"

I agree with you. It wasn’t me that brought up “whataboutary” as a counter-argument. I was merely responding to it.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Didn't see John major holding back in 1991 did you

A different war where every western nation supported military action. So not really an indicator that he would have supported the sequal.

 

[Pickman's model]

A different war where every western nation supported military action. So not really an indicator that he would have supported the sequal.

As pm you have to take the wars you're given, plus he was right on side with baby-killing sanctions on iraq

 

[gosub]

Panicking Pro-Kremlin Propagandists Warn of Ukrainian Invasion of Russia

Panic over the start of the Ukrainian counter-offensive – which may well not yet really have kicked off – is already flooding Russian Telegram channels.

www.kyivpost.com

Maybe Liz Truss knew she was talking about

 

[Artaxerxes]

This is an interesting little video from Russian TV. Can't quite define what exactly a win for Russia is and you can see the guy is hedging very carefully not to say "what the fuck are we doing"

 

[Artaxerxes]

Rybar and Wagner report more ground lost today

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

To a very large extent it depends on numbers, however in broad terms it means that the Russians have lost a huge 'safe area' from which to stage their logistics and Command & Control effort.

Uptil now, that meant they could operate large, static supply dumps, and HQ's, beyond GMLRS range, that's about 90 miles from the front line. So they could have a big ammunition supply hub on a railway line about 100 miles from the front line, and truck it in from there. Now the Ukrainians have Storm Shadow, that railway /truck transfer point is 300 miles from the front, not 90. Its akin to supplying everything Glasgow needs, by lorry, from the rail head at Carlisle. Now change that to supplying everything Glasgow needs, by truck, from the railhead at Worcester.

That means a huge increase in their dependence on, and need for, trucks - and guess what they don't have?

It also puts the Russian Black Sea fleet home port, and all of Crimea - it's bridges, it's airfields, it's HQ's - in range, when they weren't before.

For HQ's, it means both moving about a long more (which is a gigantic pain in the arse), and making a lot less electronic noise (radio traffic), as well (ideally, because of the above) as moving another 200 miles from the front. But there's a problem here for the Russians - everything about how they fight shows that HQ's have to be right up the arse of its fighting formations or nothing/chaos ensues, and that their poor training ethos, and their 'top down ' command system, means that nothing happens without a constant stream of instructions.

Rather like my children, the Russians work well when under constant supervision and cornered like a rat in a trap.

It also means they now have to protect a vastly larger with the same number of air defence assets.



It could be a Chally 2 moment - it opens the floodgates: both France and Italy operate Storm Shadow (SCALP on France's case, but it's the same thing), and the US ATACMS missile, which the Ukrainians have been asking for, but the US denying because they think it's escalatory, but has a shorter range than Storm Shadow, could be on the way after this. Same principles would exist, just in far greater density.

Storm Shadows on tour in Luhansk...







Not my comment, but backing up exactly what kebabking said:

If we thought that Russian logistics were bad before, they’re about to get a whole lot worse. The Russians have moved most of their planes, helicopters, storage depots, and command centers out of the 80 km range of HIMARS systems. The arrival of UK Storm Shadow cruise missiles just gave the AFU a 250 km strike range for which the Russians are completely unprepared.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

Storm Shadows on tour in Luhansk...

View attachment 374419View attachment 374420View attachment 374421





Not my comment, but backing up exactly what kebabking said:

Well that didn't take long.

 

[nogojones]

Sky News taking a surprising turn for a Murdoch entity and raising the flag for NWBTCW quoting Edward Abbey:

"The tragedy of modern war is that young men die fighting each other instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals"

Ukraine war: The battle of Bakhmut is not about seizing vital ground - it is about maximising enemy casualties

The fall of Bakhmut will not bring the end of the war any closer, nor will it have moved the frontline substantially. Yet over 100,000 Russians and well over 20,000 Ukrainians have - to date - been killed or injured in this grinding war of attrition.

news.sky.com

Hopefully the jurnos back at Sky HQ will be defenestrating the Murdochs when they next pop into the office.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Sky News taking a surprising turn for a Murdoch entity and raising the flag for NWBTCW quoting Edward Abbey:

"The tragedy of modern war is that young men die fighting each other instead of their real enemies back home in the capitals"

Ukraine war: The battle of Bakhmut is not about seizing vital ground - it is about maximising enemy casualties

The fall of Bakhmut will not bring the end of the war any closer, nor will it have moved the frontline substantially. Yet over 100,000 Russians and well over 20,000 Ukrainians have - to date - been killed or injured in this grinding war of attrition.

news.sky.com

Hopefully the jurnos back at Sky HQ will be defenestrating the Murdochs when they next pop into the office.

Except Murdoch has had no involvement with Sky since late 2018, when Comcast took over.

Do try to keep up at the back.

 

[A380]

According to this article in Declassified, there was a bit more going on behind the scenes with Wilson and Vietnam

Britain’s secret role in the brutal US war in Vietnam

There is a myth the UK did not support Washington’s war against Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s. In fact, Labour and Conservative governments backed every phase of US military escalation and played secret roles in the conflict, declassified files show.

declassifieduk.org

Except Murdoch has had no involvement with Sky since late 2018, when Comcast took over.

Do try to keep up at the back.

Someone else spoiling these threads with facts again...

 

[weltweit]

Well it will be interesting to see how Challenger does in this environment.

 

[TopCat]

A showcase for the UK arms industry.

 

[UnderOpenSky]

A showcase for the UK arms industry.

They probably had a short best before date.

 

[cupid_stunt]

A showcase for the UK arms industry.

Yeah, that's definitely the reason why the UK is sending Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles, 100% guaranteed fact that.

 

[Pickman's model]

A showcase for the UK arms industry.

They're not going to make the same mistake they made in spain

 

[TopCat]

They're not going to make the same mistake they made in spain

Remind me?

 

[Pickman's model]

Remind me?

Refusing to supply weapons to the republican government. This time they'll give them a thorough test and something in the way of a demonstration for potential customers as you say

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, that's definitely the reason why the UK is sending Anglo-French Storm Shadow missiles, 100% guaranteed fact that.

You always think there's one reason for something when there can be several

 

[TopCat]

As seen in Ukraine stickers appearing at Excel Arms Fair soon.