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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

UnderOpenSky said:
Intresting the UK is providing cruise misiles to Ukraine. I wonder if this mean that other countries might also do so. Will they make a big difference?
Click to expand...

To a very large extent it depends on numbers, however in broad terms it means that the Russians have lost a huge 'safe area' from which to stage their logistics and Command & Control effort.

Uptil now, that meant they could operate large, static supply dumps, and HQ's, beyond GMLRS range, that's about 90 miles from the front line. So they could have a big ammunition supply hub on a railway line about 100 miles from the front line, and truck it in from there. Now the Ukrainians have Storm Shadow, that railway /truck transfer point is 300 miles from the front, not 90. Its akin to supplying everything Glasgow needs, by lorry, from the rail head at Carlisle. Now change that to supplying everything Glasgow needs, by truck, from the railhead at Worcester.

That means a huge increase in their dependence on, and need for, trucks - and guess what they don't have?

It also puts the Russian Black Sea fleet home port, and all of Crimea - it's bridges, it's airfields, it's HQ's - in range, when they weren't before.

For HQ's, it means both moving about a long more (which is a gigantic pain in the arse), and making a lot less electronic noise (radio traffic), as well (ideally, because of the above) as moving another 200 miles from the front. But there's a problem here for the Russians - everything about how they fight shows that HQ's have to be right up the arse of its fighting formations or nothing/chaos ensues, and that their poor training ethos, and their 'top down ' command system, means that nothing happens without a constant stream of instructions.

Rather like my children, the Russians work well when under constant supervision and cornered like a rat in a trap.

It also means they now have to protect a vastly larger with the same number of air defence assets.



It could be a Chally 2 moment - it opens the floodgates: both France and Italy operate Storm Shadow (SCALP on France's case, but it's the same thing), and the US ATACMS missile, which the Ukrainians have been asking for, but the US denying because they think it's escalatory, but has a shorter range than Storm Shadow, could be on the way after this. Same principles would exist, just in far greater density.
 
LDC said:
What is likely to be Russia's 'military response'? Violent explusion of hot air, or something more real?
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As ever, difficult to say. Previous experience is that they threaten much, and deliver little. That said, each new uplift in capability drives them closer to the precipice of physical defeat in Ukraine, which means (probably?) the end of Putin, and an almighty binfire of conflict over who, and what succeeds him.

Very unlikely to be a specific military response imv - but I'd speculate that they'd continue/escalate their grey/hybrid warfare - so more political interference, more attacks like Nordstream, possibly terrorist attacks on NATO soil against logistics hubs and the like. They are not beaten, but they can see very dark clouds on the horizon - they have learned that they are not nearly as powerful as they thought, that their plans have turned to shit in their hands, and that the consequences of this going south are going to be distressing.

If the Ukrainians do as well as I think/hope they'll do, I think panic is going to be a legitimate response in the Kremlin.
 
kebabking said:
To a very large extent it depends on numbers, however in broad terms it means that the Russians have lost a huge 'safe area' from which to stage their logistics and Command & Control effort.

Uptil now, that meant they could operate large, static supply dumps, and HQ's, beyond GMLRS range, that's about 90 miles from the front line. So they could have a big ammunition supply hub on a railway line about 100 miles from the front line, and truck it in from there. Now the Ukrainians have Storm Shadow, that railway /truck transfer point is 300 miles from the front, not 90. Its akin to supplying everything Glasgow needs, by lorry, from the rail head at Carlisle. Now change that to supplying everything Glasgow needs, by truck, from the railhead at Worcester.

That means a huge increase in their dependence on, and need for, trucks - and guess what they don't have?

It also puts the Russian Black Sea fleet home port, and all of Crimea - it's bridges, it's airfields, it's HQ's - in range, when they weren't before.

For HQ's, it means both moving about a long more (which is a gigantic pain in the arse), and making a lot less electronic noise (radio traffic), as well (ideally, because of the above) as moving another 200 miles from the front. But there's a problem here for the Russians - everything about how they fight shows that HQ's have to be right up the arse of its fighting formations or nothing/chaos ensues, and that their poor training ethos, and their 'top down ' command system, means that nothing happens without a constant stream of instructions.

Rather like my children, the Russians work well when under constant supervision and cornered like a rat in a trap.

It also means they now have to protect a vastly larger with the same number of air defence assets.



It could be a Chally 2 moment - it opens the floodgates: both France and Italy operate Storm Shadow (SCALP on France's case, but it's the same thing), and the US ATACMS missile, which the Ukrainians have been asking for, but the US denying because they think it's escalatory, but has a shorter range than Storm Shadow, could be on the way after this. Same principles would exist, just in far greater density.
Click to expand...
Alternatively this might push the russians to alter their approach and give lower echelons the autonomy to act within parameters rather than micromanaging as they do now. In addition, the Ukrainian speed at firing off weapons may mean that the new missiles cause a great initial impact but are later used much more sparingly as they become scarcer. But yeh I bet the russians would love to see a fire or two at the places where missiles are made
 
Incidentally for those who might want to follow up some of the discussion about Yalta, Potsdam and the imperialist post war division plus the different types of resistance to and collaboration with the Nazis then A People’s History of the Second World War by Donny Gluckstein is a good read.

Edit: Just so there are no misunderstandings the term imperialist includes the USSR and the writer is from a 'Neither Washington nor Moscow' tradition
 
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kebabking said:
It also puts the Russian Black Sea fleet home port, and all of Crimea - it's bridges, it's airfields, it's HQ's - in range, when they weren't before.
Click to expand...

Defences are being tightened around the Russia‘s Black Sea Fleet already, supposedly just because of drone strikes.

The commander of Russia‘s Black Sea Fleet has said its defences are being tightened amid a flurry of Ukrainian drone strikes targeting its home base, the Crimean port of Sevastopol.
Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov told Friday’s edition of the military newspaper Krasnaya Zvezda (“Red Star”): “In connection with the threat of attacks by robotic surface and underwater systems, we have increased the technical defences of the fleet’s main base and of the ships’ anchorages.”
Sevastopol has repeatedly been attacked with drones since the start of Russia‘s military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022.
Ukraine has tended to avoid taking direct responsibility for strikes on the Crimean peninsula, which Russia unilaterally annexed after seizing it in 2014.
In the interview, Sokolov said the Black Sea Fleet, whose flagship, the cruiser Moskva, was sunk by Ukraine in April 2022, would receive four new ships in 2023.
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Followed by four new Storm Shadows?

www.independent.co.uk

Russia rejects claims of Ukrainian advances along frontline

Ukraine-Russia war: latest news and live updates
www.independent.co.uk www.independent.co.uk
 
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I think something that's going to rear it's ugly head in short order, and that's really going to need political thought at a societal level throughout the west, is what happens when Ukraine starts getting close to liberating it's territory close to the Russian border.

So far, most of the weapons that have been delivered from the west come with the proviso - agreed with Ukraine - that they are used on Ukrainian territory, not inside Russia proper.

What happens when the fighting is near the border - when Russian artillery batteries are firing on Ukrainian troops trying to liberate a town 10 miles from the border, but from 5 miles inside Russia?

What about an airbase 100 miles inside Russia, who's planes are attacking a Ukrainian front 20 miles from the border?

The main logistics hub for Russian operations in the east and south is Rostov-on-Don - it's absolutely critical for them. Without it, there are no land operations inside Ukraine, with it, they can keep going to the last tank, the last artillery round, the last conscript. It's about 150 miles from Mariupol, and 100 or so miles inside Russia. Valid target, or untouchable?

This stuff needs thinking about.
 
kebabking said:
I think something that's going to rear it's ugly head in short order, and that's really going to need political thought at a societal level throughout the west, is what happens when Ukraine starts getting close to liberating it's territory close to the Russian border.

So far, most of the weapons that have been delivered from the west come with the proviso - agreed with Ukraine - that they are used on Ukrainian territory, not inside Russia proper.

What happens when the fighting is near the border - when Russian artillery batteries are firing on Ukrainian troops trying to liberate a town 10 miles from the border, but from 5 miles inside Russia?

What about an airbase 100 miles inside Russia, who's planes are attacking a Ukrainian front 20 miles from the border?

The main logistics hub for Russian operations in the east and south is Rostov-on-Don - it's absolutely critical for them. Without it, there are no land operations inside Ukraine, with it, they can keep going to the last tank, the last artillery round, the last conscript. It's about 150 miles from Mariupol, and 100 or so miles inside Russia. Valid target, or untouchable?

This stuff needs thinking about.
Click to expand...
Surely, there is precedent for "if you are launching attacks on our territory from X, then X is a legitimate target"? It's not as if Ukraine is likely to be planning a reciprocal land grab, after all.

Obviously, Russia will froth and rave about "existential threat", but they do that every time Zalushny goes "boo!" anyway...
 
kebabking said:
I think something that's going to rear it's ugly head in short order, and that's really going to need political thought at a societal level throughout the west, is what happens when Ukraine starts getting close to liberating it's territory close to the Russian border.

So far, most of the weapons that have been delivered from the west come with the proviso - agreed with Ukraine - that they are used on Ukrainian territory, not inside Russia proper.

What happens when the fighting is near the border - when Russian artillery batteries are firing on Ukrainian troops trying to liberate a town 10 miles from the border, but from 5 miles inside Russia?

What about an airbase 100 miles inside Russia, who's planes are attacking a Ukrainian front 20 miles from the border?

The main logistics hub for Russian operations in the east and south is Rostov-on-Don - it's absolutely critical for them. Without it, there are no land operations inside Ukraine, with it, they can keep going to the last tank, the last artillery round, the last conscript. It's about 150 miles from Mariupol, and 100 or so miles inside Russia. Valid target, or untouchable?

This stuff needs thinking about.
Click to expand...

That thought had crossed my mind, but not just near the border, if Russia is pushed back but still carries out drone and missile attacks right across Ukraine surely targets inside Russia have to be considered for strikes?

Maybe the hope is that if Russia does get pushed back to the border that will spark the end of Putin and the war anyway, so that issue will not need to be addressed.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
Where are they supposed to get 4 new ships from? Turkey's closed the entrance to the Black Sea to all military traffic...
Click to expand...

I'll try finding a link but I thought Turkey were allowing Russian ships through now, as of several months ago.

E2a, not found a link but sure i read / heard this late ish last year.
 
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editor said:
I've no idea but this notion that one person can't push a nation into war is clearly flawed. Circumstances may create a volatile political landscape but one powerful cunt of a man like Putin can manipulate that to bring about unnecessary war. See also: Hitler.
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If the same system that resulted in Putin had instead produced somebody else just like Putin, you’d be saying the same thing about that person instead.

Individuals create events, but those individuals are themselves the product of their socioecological circumstances. You can’t separate the man from his temporal and sociopolitical context.
 
editor said:
I've no idea but this notion that one person can't push a nation into war is clearly flawed. Circumstances may create a volatile political landscape but one powerful cunt of a man like Putin can manipulate that to bring about unnecessary war. See also: Hitler.
Click to expand...
Reported to the Provisional Wing of the Movement for the Abolition of WW2 Analogies .
 
kabbes said:
If the same system that resulted in Putin had instead produced somebody else just like Putin, you’d be saying the same thing about that person instead.
Click to expand...

That's all whataboutery. The fact is that Putin is the longest serving Russian leader thanks to his dodgy machinations and has put himself in a position of unbridled, unchallenged power. There's no 'somebody else' who can wield the power he does.

His longevity has come from shuffling back and forth between the roles of prime minister and president continuously since 1999. He is regarded as an autocratic leader, and while the country holds elections, they are widely seen as undemocratic and designed in his favor. Election monitors said the 2018 presidential vote was “overly controlled” and “lacked genuine competition.”

edition.cnn.com

Vladimir Putin could rule Russia until 2036. He's already one of the world's longest-serving leaders | CNN

Russian President Vladimir Putin is already one of the world's longest-serving leaders, and on Wednesday, voters paved the way for him to rule the country until 2036.
edition.cnn.com edition.cnn.com
Click to expand...
 
kebabking said:
I think something that's going to rear it's ugly head in short order, and that's really going to need political thought at a societal level throughout the west, is what happens when Ukraine starts getting close to liberating it's territory close to the Russian border.

So far, most of the weapons that have been delivered from the west come with the proviso - agreed with Ukraine - that they are used on Ukrainian territory, not inside Russia proper.

What happens when the fighting is near the border - when Russian artillery batteries are firing on Ukrainian troops trying to liberate a town 10 miles from the border, but from 5 miles inside Russia?

What about an airbase 100 miles inside Russia, who's planes are attacking a Ukrainian front 20 miles from the border?

The main logistics hub for Russian operations in the east and south is Rostov-on-Don - it's absolutely critical for them. Without it, there are no land operations inside Ukraine, with it, they can keep going to the last tank, the last artillery round, the last conscript. It's about 150 miles from Mariupol, and 100 or so miles inside Russia. Valid target, or untouchable?

This stuff needs thinking about.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it has crossed my mind a few times. I don't know the geography but thought if air assaults, missiles were being launched from just over the border on Russian turf and those facilities came in range of Ukr's weaponary, asking politely do you mind not actually having a go at taking them out with the stuff we've given you, - isn't really going to be...Credible.
 
editor said:
That's all whataboutery. The fact is that Putin is the longest serving Russian leader thanks to his dodgy machinations and has put himself in a position of unbridled power. No one else holds the power he has.
Click to expand...
Whataboutery? Your question is literally “what about if Putin wasn’t in charge?”!
 
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